{
 "series": "South Australia state voting intention · DemosAU for Ace Strategies",
 "jurisdiction": "SA",
 "units": "per cent of respondents, undecided excluded from voting intention",
 "parties": {
  "ALP": "Labor",
  "ONP": "One Nation",
  "LIB": "Liberal",
  "GRN": "The Greens",
  "OTH": "Any other candidate"
 },
 "leaders": {
  "ALP": "Peter Malinauskas (Premier)",
  "LIB": "Ashton Hurn (Opposition Leader)",
  "ONP": "Cory Bernardi (One Nation leader)"
 },
 "preference_flows_2026_estimate": {
  "LIB": {
   "ALP": 33.4,
   "ONP": 66.6
  },
  "GRN": {
   "ALP": 80.4,
   "ONP": 19.6
  },
  "OTH": {
   "ALP": 57.9,
   "ONP": 42.1
  },
  "source": "DemosAU estimate from seats with a Labor–One Nation final count at the 21 March 2026 election; ECSA has published no state-wide two-candidate flow data as at 24 September 2026"
 },
 "waves": [
  {
   "id": "election-2026-03",
   "kind": "election",
   "label": "Election, 21 March 2026",
   "date": "2026-03-21",
   "source": "ECSA count as reported by DemosAU",
   "primary": {
    "ALP": 37.5,
    "ONP": 22.9,
    "LIB": 18.9,
    "GRN": 10.4,
    "OTH": 10.3
   },
   "tpp": {
    "ALP": 58.1,
    "ONP": 41.9,
    "note": "DemosAU estimate"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "demosau-2026-06",
   "kind": "poll",
   "label": "June 2026",
   "fieldwork": {
    "start": "2026-05-29",
    "end": "2026-06-15"
   },
   "n": 931,
   "effective_n": 632,
   "moe": 3.9,
   "undecided_excluded": 7,
   "primary": {
    "ALP": 35,
    "ONP": 26,
    "LIB": 18,
    "GRN": 13,
    "OTH": 8
   },
   "tpp": {
    "ALP": 56,
    "ONP": 44
   },
   "preferred_premier": {
    "Malinauskas": 51,
    "Hurn": 20,
    "DontKnow": 29,
    "options": [
     "Malinauskas",
     "Hurn",
     "DontKnow"
    ]
   },
   "leader_ratings": {
    "Malinauskas": {
     "pos": 43,
     "neu": 36,
     "neg": 21,
     "net": 22
    },
    "Hurn": {
     "pos": 21,
     "neu": 55,
     "neg": 24,
     "net": -3
    },
    "Bernardi": {
     "pos": 20,
     "neu": 39,
     "neg": 41,
     "net": -21
    }
   },
   "direction": {
    "right": 38,
    "wrong": 39,
    "dk": 23
   },
   "biggest_issue": {
    "Cost of living and inflation": 35,
    "Housing affordability and homelessness": 25,
    "Health system": 9,
    "Government spending": 7,
    "Immigration and population growth": 6,
    "Political leadership": 5,
    "Urban and infrastructure": 5,
    "Environment": 3,
    "Social inequality and discrimination": 3,
    "Community and safety": 3,
    "Wages and manufacturing": 1,
    "Unemployment": 1,
    "Fuel prices": 1,
    "Education": 1,
    "Don't know": 4,
    "Miscellaneous": 6
   },
   "cohorts": {
    "Male": {
     "ALP": 37,
     "ONP": 27,
     "LIB": 18,
     "GRN": 11,
     "OTH": 7
    },
    "Female": {
     "ALP": 32,
     "ONP": 25,
     "LIB": 18,
     "GRN": 15,
     "OTH": 10
    },
    "18-34": {
     "ALP": 36,
     "ONP": 20,
     "LIB": 11,
     "GRN": 26,
     "OTH": 7
    },
    "35-54": {
     "ALP": 34,
     "ONP": 27,
     "LIB": 13,
     "GRN": 17,
     "OTH": 9
    },
    "55+": {
     "ALP": 35,
     "ONP": 29,
     "LIB": 25,
     "GRN": 3,
     "OTH": 8
    },
    "School": {
     "ALP": 38,
     "ONP": 29,
     "LIB": 14,
     "GRN": 12,
     "OTH": 7
    },
    "TAFE": {
     "ALP": 28,
     "ONP": 30,
     "LIB": 21,
     "GRN": 8,
     "OTH": 13
    },
    "University": {
     "ALP": 38,
     "ONP": 17,
     "LIB": 22,
     "GRN": 19,
     "OTH": 4
    },
    "Own outright": {
     "ALP": 34,
     "ONP": 21,
     "LIB": 29,
     "GRN": 7,
     "OTH": 9
    },
    "Mortgage": {
     "ALP": 34,
     "ONP": 29,
     "LIB": 17,
     "GRN": 13,
     "OTH": 7
    },
    "Renter": {
     "ALP": 38,
     "ONP": 24,
     "LIB": 9,
     "GRN": 18,
     "OTH": 11
    },
    "Inner metro": {
     "ALP": 38,
     "ONP": 21,
     "LIB": 18,
     "GRN": 14,
     "OTH": 9
    },
    "Outer metro": {
     "ALP": 36,
     "ONP": 24,
     "LIB": 18,
     "GRN": 12,
     "OTH": 10
    },
    "Regional": {
     "ALP": 25,
     "ONP": 40,
     "LIB": 19,
     "GRN": 12,
     "OTH": 4
    }
   },
   "march_vote_flows": {
    "Labor": {
     "ALP": 87,
     "ONP": 6,
     "third": 4,
     "note": "third segment is labelled 4 in the report without a party label; the June flow chart shows it in grey as unlabelled"
    },
    "One Nation": {
     "ONP": 96
    },
    "Liberal": {
     "ALP": 5,
     "ONP": 5,
     "LIB": 89
    },
    "Greens": {
     "ALP": 5,
     "ONP": 3,
     "GRN": 89
    },
    "Other": {
     "ALP": 16,
     "ONP": 5,
     "LIB": 7,
     "OTH": 70
    },
    "Did not vote / don't remember": {
     "ALP": 18,
     "ONP": 21,
     "LIB": 12,
     "GRN": 27,
     "OTH": 22
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "demosau-2026-08",
   "kind": "poll",
   "label": "August 2026",
   "fieldwork": {
    "start": "2026-08-05",
    "end": "2026-08-26"
   },
   "n": 1012,
   "effective_n": 628,
   "moe": 3.9,
   "undecided_excluded": 5,
   "primary": {
    "ALP": 37,
    "ONP": 25,
    "LIB": 17,
    "GRN": 13,
    "OTH": 8
   },
   "tpp": {
    "ALP": 58,
    "ONP": 42
   },
   "preferred_premier": {
    "Malinauskas": 46,
    "Bernardi": 20,
    "Hurn": 17,
    "DontKnow": 17,
    "options": [
     "Malinauskas",
     "Bernardi",
     "Hurn",
     "DontKnow"
    ],
    "note": "Bernardi was added to the question in this wave; the June question offered Malinauskas, Hurn and Don't know only"
   },
   "leader_ratings": {
    "Malinauskas": {
     "pos": 44,
     "neu": 37,
     "neg": 19,
     "net": 25
    },
    "Hurn": {
     "pos": 22,
     "neu": 54,
     "neg": 24,
     "net": -2
    },
    "Bernardi": {
     "pos": 20,
     "neu": 42,
     "neg": 38,
     "net": -18
    }
   },
   "direction": {
    "right": 39,
    "wrong": 40,
    "dk": 21
   },
   "biggest_issue": {
    "Cost of living and inflation": 35,
    "Housing affordability and homelessness": 22,
    "Health system": 8,
    "Immigration and overpopulation": 7,
    "Crime and safety": 5,
    "Fuel and energy prices": 5,
    "State government performance": 4,
    "Government spending": 4,
    "State debt and finances": 3,
    "Infrastructure deficits": 3,
    "Climate change": 3,
    "Road quality": 2,
    "Environment": 2,
    "Unemployment and poverty": 2,
    "Education": 1,
    "Sustainable development": 1,
    "Economy": 1,
    "Racism and discrimination": 1,
    "Miscellaneous": 8,
    "Don't know": 2
   },
   "cohorts": {
    "Male": {
     "ALP": 38,
     "ONP": 28,
     "LIB": 17,
     "GRN": 10,
     "OTH": 7
    },
    "Female": {
     "ALP": 36,
     "ONP": 22,
     "LIB": 18,
     "GRN": 15,
     "OTH": 9
    },
    "18-34": {
     "ALP": 33,
     "ONP": 23,
     "LIB": 10,
     "GRN": 29,
     "OTH": 5
    },
    "35-54": {
     "ALP": 38,
     "ONP": 28,
     "LIB": 11,
     "GRN": 13,
     "OTH": 10
    },
    "55+": {
     "ALP": 39,
     "ONP": 25,
     "LIB": 25,
     "GRN": 3,
     "OTH": 8
    },
    "School": {
     "ALP": 36,
     "ONP": 32,
     "LIB": 11,
     "GRN": 14,
     "OTH": 7
    },
    "TAFE": {
     "ALP": 38,
     "ONP": 25,
     "LIB": 19,
     "GRN": 9,
     "OTH": 9
    },
    "University": {
     "ALP": 39,
     "ONP": 15,
     "LIB": 23,
     "GRN": 15,
     "OTH": 8
    },
    "Own outright": {
     "ALP": 36,
     "ONP": 21,
     "LIB": 27,
     "GRN": 6,
     "OTH": 10
    },
    "Mortgage": {
     "ALP": 36,
     "ONP": 29,
     "LIB": 15,
     "GRN": 14,
     "OTH": 6
    },
    "Renter": {
     "ALP": 42,
     "ONP": 22,
     "LIB": 9,
     "GRN": 17,
     "OTH": 10
    },
    "Inner metro": {
     "ALP": 44,
     "ONP": 19,
     "LIB": 17,
     "GRN": 13,
     "OTH": 7
    },
    "Outer metro": {
     "ALP": 34,
     "ONP": 24,
     "LIB": 20,
     "GRN": 13,
     "OTH": 9
    },
    "Regional": {
     "ALP": 28,
     "ONP": 40,
     "LIB": 13,
     "GRN": 11,
     "OTH": 8
    }
   },
   "march_vote_flows": {
    "Labor": {
     "ALP": 87,
     "ONP": 4,
     "LIB": 2,
     "GRN": 3,
     "OTH": 4,
     "note": "LIB share unlabelled in the report; 2 is the residual"
    },
    "One Nation": {
     "ALP": 7,
     "ONP": 86,
     "LIB": 3,
     "OTH": 4
    },
    "Liberal": {
     "ALP": 5,
     "ONP": 7,
     "LIB": 85,
     "GRN": 3
    },
    "Greens": {
     "ALP": 3,
     "GRN": 94,
     "note": "remaining 3 unlabelled in the report"
    },
    "Other": {
     "ALP": 23,
     "ONP": 24,
     "GRN": 3,
     "OTH": 50
    },
    "Did not vote / don't remember": {
     "ALP": 32,
     "ONP": 22,
     "LIB": 4,
     "GRN": 23,
     "OTH": 19
    }
   }
  }
 ]
}