{ "meta": { "title": "The Third Corner", "subtitle": "Victorian election polls 2026 — every house, one story", "published": "2026-09-08", "updated": "2026-09-19", "updatedTime": "10:43", "electionDate": "2026-11-28", "writsDate": "2026-11-03", "earlyVoting": { "start": "2026-11-18", "end": "2026-11-27" }, "baseline": "26 November 2022 state election", "houses": 7 }, "updates": [ { "date": "2026-09-19", "note": "The register compiles seven polling houses where the page had said eight, and every count on the page follows. Accent Research's attitudes study for the University of Melbourne published no Victorian voting-intention wave, so it is credited in the method section as the source of the Act V issues figures rather than counted among the houses whose polls are averaged: the hero chip, the opening line, the lede, the field chart's title and source line, the Dataset description and this method note now read seven houses where they read eight, and the houses table, which has always held seven rows, is unchanged. The method notes also carried the post-change counts from before RedBridge's September wave was added; they read seven polls and six two-party readings now rather than six and five, which is what the hero, the In brief list and the entries below have said since that wave landed. The publication entry of 8 September was corrected with them. No poll's figures, no average and no uncertainty band changed." }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "note": "The post-change two-party average carries a second band beside its sampling error. The sampling band is unchanged at ± 1.1 and still shows sampling error alone; the new figure, ± 1.9 across houses, is 1.96 standard errors of the mean taken from the spread of the six published readings, so it carries the disagreement between houses that the sampling band leaves out, from a standard deviation of 2.37 points across the six and 0.97 of a point on their mean. The preference-scenario panel also states the distance between the two-party figure the scenario builds from the post-change primary votes at the default flows, 53.2, and the 54.0 the houses themselves published, a gap of 0.8 points. The scenario's default flows are labelled as the 2025 federal election flows in Victoria, which DemosAU adopts as its own two-party method, where they had been labelled as DemosAU's method alone. No figure in the register changed, and no average moved." }, { "date": "2026-09-19", "note": "A sensitivity table sits below the preference scenario, giving the projected two-party share at the post-change average primary votes for each setting of the One Nation flow to the Coalition from 60–40 to 85–15, with the uniform swing each implies and whether it clears the 7.6 points a majority needs on a uniform swing. At the default of 75–25 it gives 53.2 and a swing of 8.2; at 60–40 it gives 49.8 and 4.8, and at 85–15 it gives 55.5 and 10.5, so three of the six settings clear the line and three fall short. The Greens and others hold their defaults throughout. Every figure in the table is a projection from the average rather than a reading from a poll, and the panel exports it as CSV. No figure in the register changed." }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "note": "The page takes its most recent wave, and the span it reports covering, from the date fieldwork closed rather than from the middle of it. RedBridge / Accent's September wave was in the field from 1 to 14 September and Resolve Strategic's from 6 to 12, so RedBridge's closed two days later while its midpoint falls two days earlier: the hero line and the Latest-reading block had named Resolve as the most recent poll, and the dataset's temporal coverage had ended on 12 September while the register held fieldwork to the 14th. Both now follow the closing date. The charts still order by fieldwork midpoint, which is the axis a time series needs. No figure in the register changed." }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "wave": "rb-2609", "note": "RedBridge / Accent's wave for the Financial Review, fielded 1–14 September 2026 from a sample of 2,371, was added as the thirty-first wave and the seventh since the change of Premier: Coalition 29, One Nation 25, Labor 24, Greens 15 and others 7, with respondent-allocated two-party figures of 56–44 to the Coalition over Labor and 53–47 to Labor over One Nation. It is the widest two-party margin in the register. The post-change two-party average moves from 53.6–46.4 over five houses to 54.0–46.0 over six, its sampling error from ±1.3 to ±1.1, the swing it implies from 8.6 to 9.0 points and the margin by which that clears the majority line from 1.0 to 1.4; four of the six post-change two-party readings now clear the line rather than three of five, and seventeen named seats fall to the average swing rather than fifteen. The post-change primary averages move from Coalition 28.8, Labor 24.5, One Nation 22.6, Greens 12.9 and others 11.3 to 28.9, 24.4, 22.9, 13.2 and 10.7. Preferred premier is unchanged at 16 of the 16 polls that asked, by a median of 11 points." }, { "date": "2026-09-17", "wave": "rs-2609", "note": "Resolve Strategic's September wave carries the sample its report gives, 967 rather than the 1,000 recorded when it was added, and the preferred-premier question's undecided share, 44 per cent, which was not in the reports seen at the time. No average, primary vote or uncertainty band changed." }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "wave": "rs-2608", "note": "Resolve Strategic's August wave, fielded 9–15 August 2026, now carries the two-party figure it published, 53–47 to the Coalition by respondent preferences, which the register had held as not published. The post-change two-party average is taken over five houses rather than four and moves from 53.8–46.2 to 53.6–46.4, the swing it implies from 8.8 to 8.6 points, and three of the five post-change two-party readings clear the majority line rather than two of four. No primary vote, primary average, preferred-premier figure or seat model changed." }, { "date": "2026-09-15", "wave": "rs-2609", "note": "Resolve Strategic's wave for The Age, fielded 6–12 September 2026 from a sample of 1,000, was added as the thirtieth wave and the sixth since the change of Premier: Coalition 28, Labor 25, One Nation 23, Greens 12, independents 8 and others 5, with no two-party figure published. The post-change primary averages moved from Coalition 29.0, Labor 24.4, One Nation 22.5, Greens 13.1 and others 11.0 to 28.8, 24.5, 22.6, 12.9 and 11.3; the two-party average, the within-house shift panel and both seat models are unchanged; and the Opposition Leader now leads on preferred premier in 16 of the 16 polls that asked, by a median of 11 points rather than 13." }, { "date": "2026-09-13", "note": "Two RedBridge / Accent waves the register had never held were added: 8–14 October 2025, a sample of 1,501, and 24 November to 8 December 2025, a sample of 1,021, the second from the pollster's own report. The register now holds 29 waves. Sample sizes and fieldwork dates for the June and September 2025 RedBridge waves were taken from the same contemporaneous reports the register already cited for them, and both waves are now complete. No post-change average or two-party figure moved." }, { "date": "2026-09-13", "note": "The house-effect panel now leaves the two MRP models out on both sides, because a modelled statewide figure is not a house's poll reading: YouGov, whose only wave is its MRP, has no mark, and RedBridge's marks rest on its two Financial Review waves. No figure in the register changed." }, { "date": "2026-09-13", "note": "RedBridge / Accent's June wave is one survey again: the figures the Financial Review reported are the Trades Hall MRP's own statewide estimates, published after the model was leaked in July, so the split made earlier today is reversed and the wave is marked as a model with both reported sample sizes flagged. RedBridge's June and September 2025 primary votes now follow its own published back-series, Roy Morgan's April wave gains its Greens, independent and others shares, and RedBridge's February and August waves gain a method note and a Labor-v-One Nation figure. No Coalition–Labor two-party figure or seat total changed." }, { "date": "2026-09-13", "note": "RedBridge / Accent's June wave was split into the two polls it had held as one: the Financial Review poll of 17–28 June keeps the vote shares, two-party figures and favourability readings, and the seat model now sits on its own wave as the MRP for Victorian Trades Hall, reported in July from roughly 6,500 respondents. No vote share, two-party figure or seat total changed." }, { "date": "2026-09-13", "note": "Two waves were corrected against the pollsters' own releases: Freshwater's February fieldwork is 19–23 February 2026 with a sample of 1,030, and Roy Morgan's April survey has a sample of 1,707. No vote share or two-party figure changed." }, { "date": "2026-09-08", "note": "The story was published with 27 waves from seven houses, covering fieldwork from 23 June 2025 to 15 August 2026. This entry read eight houses until 19 September 2026, when the count was corrected." } ], "results": null, "parties": [ { "id": "lib", "label": "Coalition", "short": "L/NP" }, { "id": "alp", "label": "Labor", "short": "ALP" }, { "id": "on", "label": "One Nation", "short": "ON" }, { "id": "grn", "label": "The Greens", "short": "GRN" }, { "id": "oth", "label": "Others", "short": "OTH" } ], "houses": [ { "id": "newspoll", "cadenceDays": 21, "measure": "satisfaction (net)", "label": "Newspoll", "outlet": "The Australian", "mode": "Online panel", "marker": "circle", "tpp": "Previous-election preference flows" }, { "id": "resolve", "cadenceDays": 30, "measure": "likeability (net)", "label": "Resolve Strategic", "outlet": "The Age", "mode": "Online panel", "marker": "square", "tpp": "Respondent-allocated preferences, published for some waves only" }, { "id": "redbridge", "cadenceDays": 30, "measure": "favourability (net)", "label": "RedBridge / Accent", "outlet": "Financial Review", "mode": "Online panel", "marker": "diamond", "tpp": "Respondent-allocated preferences" }, { "id": "freshwater", "cadenceDays": 30, "measure": "favourability (net)", "label": "Freshwater Strategy", "outlet": "Herald Sun", "mode": "Online panel", "marker": "triangle", "tpp": "Respondent-allocated preferences" }, { "id": "morgan", "cadenceDays": 30, "measure": "job approval (net)", "label": "Roy Morgan", "outlet": "Self-published", "mode": "SMS", "marker": "cross", "tpp": "Respondent-allocated, three pairings" }, { "id": "demosau", "cadenceDays": 30, "measure": "favourability (net)", "label": "DemosAU", "outlet": "Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026)", "mode": "Online panel", "marker": "hex", "tpp": "Adjusted 2022 flows; One Nation preferences as per the 2025 federal election in Victoria (Grn 90–10 ALP, ON 75–25 L/NP, Oth 55–45 L/NP)" }, { "id": "yougov", "cadenceDays": null, "measure": null, "label": "YouGov MRP", "outlet": "Common Threads", "mode": "Online panel, MRP model", "marker": "star", "tpp": "Model estimate" } ], "leaderRegistry": { "allan": { "label": "Jacinta Allan", "role": "Labor Premier · to 28 Jul 2026", "party": "alp" }, "carroll": { "label": "Ben Carroll", "role": "Labor Premier · from 28 Jul 2026", "party": "alp" }, "battin": { "label": "Brad Battin", "role": "Liberal Leader of the Opposition · to 18 Nov 2025", "party": "lib" }, "wilson": { "label": "Jess Wilson", "role": "Liberal Leader of the Opposition · from 18 Nov 2025", "party": "lib" }, "pickering": { "label": "Warren Pickering", "role": "One Nation leader in Victoria · from 3 Aug 2026", "party": "on" }, "hanson": { "label": "Pauline Hanson", "role": "One Nation federal leader", "party": "on" }, "sandell": { "label": "Ellen Sandell", "role": "Greens leader in Victoria", "party": "grn" } }, "election2022": { "date": "2022-11-26", "alp": 37, "lib": 34.4, "grn": 11.5, "oth": 17.1, "on": null, "tpp": 45, "seats": { "alp": 56, "lib": 28, "grn": 4, "ind": 0 }, "note": "Primary votes to one decimal (Labor 37.03, Liberal 29.60, National 4.77, Greens 11.50). One Nation did not contest the Assembly statewide, so it has no 2022 baseline. Two-party preferred 55.00–45.00 to Labor." }, "polls": [ { "id": "rb-2506", "house": "redbridge", "outlet": "Self-published", "start": "2025-06-19", "end": "2025-06-30", "n": 1183, "alp": 33, "lib": 38, "on": null, "grn": 14, "oth": 15, "tpp": 48.5, "src": "RedBridge Group; The Poll Bludger, 6 Jul 2025, for fieldwork and sample; primary votes confirmed against RedBridge's own back-series in its March 2026 report", "flags": [ "RedBridge's own back-series and the contemporaneous report agree on these primary votes; the figures this table showed before 13 September 2026 (Labor 32, Coalition 37, Greens 13, others 18) were a mis-transcription", "One Nation was not an option in this wave's question" ] }, { "id": "np-2506", "house": "newspoll", "start": "2025-06-23", "end": "2025-06-30", "n": null, "alp": 35, "lib": 35, "on": null, "grn": 12, "oth": 18, "tpp": 47, "leaders": { "allan": { "sat": 30, "dis": 61, "net": -31 }, "battin": { "sat": 35, "dis": 40, "net": -5 } }, "premier": { "battin": 41, "allan": 36 }, "src": "The Australian; The Poll Bludger, 6 Jul 2025", "flags": [ "no sample size: the contemporaneous report records it as to be advised, and The Australian did not publish it afterwards", "One Nation was not reported separately" ] }, { "id": "rs-2508", "house": "resolve", "start": "2025-07-01", "end": "2025-08-17", "n": null, "alp": 32, "lib": 33, "on": null, "grn": 12, "oth": 23, "tpp": null, "leaders": { "allan": { "net": -21 } }, "premier": { "battin": 32, "allan": 25 }, "src": "Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Poll Bludger, 21 Aug 2025", "flags": [ "two-month combined sample (July–August); window approximate", "Allan net −21 carried from the October report, which records it as steady", "One Nation not reported separately" ] }, { "id": "rb-2509", "house": "redbridge", "outlet": "Self-published", "start": "2025-09-03", "end": "2025-09-11", "n": 2005, "alp": 31, "lib": 38, "on": null, "grn": 13, "oth": 18, "tpp": 48, "src": "RedBridge Group; The Poll Bludger, 18 Sep 2025, for fieldwork and sample; primary votes from RedBridge's own back-series in its March 2026 report", "flags": [ "primary votes are RedBridge's own, from the series table in its March 2026 report; the contemporaneous report has Labor a point higher at 32", "RedBridge's back-series labels this wave 30 Sep 2025, which is after the fieldwork the report of 18 September describes; the fieldwork dates here are the reported ones", "One Nation was not an option in this wave's question" ] }, { "id": "rs-2510", "house": "resolve", "start": "2025-09-01", "end": "2025-10-12", "n": null, "alp": 30, "lib": 33, "on": null, "grn": 12, "ind": 10, "oth": 15, "tpp": null, "leaders": { "allan": { "net": -21 }, "battin": { "net": 9 } }, "premier": { "battin": 33, "allan": 27 }, "src": "Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Conversation (A. Beaumont); The Poll Bludger, 14 Oct 2025", "flags": [ "two-month combined sample (September–October), n > 1,000; window approximate", "One Nation not reported separately" ] }, { "id": "rb-2510", "house": "redbridge", "outlet": "Self-published", "start": "2025-10-08", "end": "2025-10-14", "n": 1501, "alp": 32, "lib": 38, "on": null, "grn": 13, "oth": 16, "tpp": 48, "src": "RedBridge Group; The Poll Bludger, 14 Oct 2025, for fieldwork, sample and the two-party figure; primary votes from RedBridge's own back-series in its March 2026 report", "flags": [ "primary votes are RedBridge's own, from the series table in its March 2026 report; the contemporaneous report has the Coalition a point lower at 37", "One Nation was not an option in this wave's question; the back-series table's 1 per cent is a residual in a column it shares with later waves" ] }, { "id": "da-2510", "house": "demosau", "post": "/news/demosau-vic-state-polling-results-october-2025/", "start": "2025-10-21", "end": "2025-10-27", "n": 1016, "effN": 691, "moe": 3.8, "alp": 26, "lib": 37, "on": null, "grn": 15, "oth": 22, "tpp": 51, "premier": { "battin": 40, "allan": 32, "dk": 28 }, "upper": { "lib": 30, "alp": 21, "grn": 14, "on": 11 }, "src": "DemosAU report, 21–27 October 2025 (PDF in this repository)", "flags": [ "One Nation not offered in the Assembly question; it drew 11% in the same report's Legislative Council question", "the site's news post gives Allan 33 on preferred premier; the report's own table reads 32 (Battin 40, don't know 28)" ] }, { "id": "np-2511", "house": "newspoll", "start": "2025-11-18", "end": "2025-11-20", "n": 1030, "alp": 28, "lib": 36, "on": null, "grn": 14, "oth": 22, "tpp": 51, "leaders": { "allan": { "sat": 26, "dis": 68, "net": -42 }, "wilson": { "sat": 32, "dis": 31, "net": 1 } }, "src": "The Australian; The Poll Bludger, 22 Nov 2025", "flags": [ "fielded Tuesday to Thursday of the week Jess Wilson replaced Brad Battin (18 Nov)", "One Nation not reported separately" ] }, { "id": "rs-2512", "house": "resolve", "start": "2025-11-01", "end": "2025-12-07", "n": null, "alp": null, "lib": null, "on": null, "grn": null, "oth": null, "tpp": 51, "leaders": { "wilson": { "net": 14 } }, "premier": { "wilson": 39, "allan": 20 }, "src": "Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Poll Bludger, 10 Dec 2025", "flags": [ "primary votes withheld: secondary reporting of this wave was internally inconsistent", "two-month combined sample; window approximate" ] }, { "id": "rb-2512", "house": "redbridge", "start": "2025-11-24", "end": "2025-12-08", "n": 1021, "effN": 783, "moe": 3.5, "alp": 31, "lib": 40, "on": null, "grn": 12, "ind": 6, "oth": 11, "tpp": 50, "src": "RedBridge Group / Accent Research Victorian state poll for the Australian Financial Review, 9 December 2025", "flags": [ "One Nation was not an option in this wave's question", "effective sample 783 after rim weighting at 77 per cent efficiency; margin of error ±3.5", "ten per cent of the sample gave no vote intention in either the first question or the leaner and were excluded from the published figures", "the report also carries performance ratings — Jacinta Allan net −40, Jess Wilson net +3 — which ask how well each leader is performing rather than RedBridge's later favourability question, so they are not added to the leader series" ] }, { "id": "rs-2602", "house": "resolve", "start": "2026-01-15", "end": "2026-02-15", "n": null, "alp": 28, "lib": 30, "on": 11, "grn": 12, "oth": 19, "tpp": null, "premier": { "wilson": 39, "allan": 20 }, "src": "Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Poll Bludger, 18 Feb 2026", "flags": [ "two-month combined sample (January–February); window approximate", "preferred premier carried from the April report, which records it as unchanged since February" ] }, { "id": "da-2602", "house": "demosau", "post": "/news/demosau-vic-state-polling-results-february-2026/", "start": "2026-02-01", "end": "2026-02-10", "n": 1274, "effN": 716, "moe": 3.7, "alp": 23, "lib": 29, "on": 21, "grn": 15, "oth": 12, "tpp": 53, "leaders": { "allan": { "pos": 16, "neu": 31, "neg": 53, "net": -37 }, "wilson": { "pos": 27, "neu": 49, "neg": 24, "net": 3 } }, "premier": { "wilson": 40, "allan": 31 }, "src": "DemosAU / Premier National report, 1–10 February 2026 (PDF in this repository)", "flags": [ "leader ratings back-calculated from the June report's change-since-February figures; the February report's rating charts are images" ] }, { "id": "rm-2602", "house": "morgan", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-16", "n": 2462, "alp": 25.5, "lib": 21.5, "on": 26.5, "grn": 13.5, "oth": 13, "tpp": 48, "tppAlpOn": 52.5, "src": "Roy Morgan, special SMS survey, published 24 Feb 2026", "flags": [] }, { "id": "fw-2602", "house": "freshwater", "start": "2026-02-19", "end": "2026-02-23", "n": 1030, "alp": 28, "lib": 27, "on": 23, "grn": 13, "oth": 9, "tpp": 50, "src": "Freshwater Strategy for the Herald Sun, published 4 Mar 2026; fieldwork dates and sample from Freshwater's own data tables", "flags": [] }, { "id": "rb-2602", "house": "redbridge", "start": "2026-02-18", "end": "2026-02-27", "n": 2165, "alp": 25, "lib": 28, "on": 24, "grn": 13, "oth": 10, "tpp": 52, "tppAlpOn": 53, "src": "RedBridge Group / Accent Research for the Financial Review, Victorian public opinion snapshot, March 2026; The Conversation, early Mar 2026", "flags": [ "two-party figures are respondent-allocated, as RedBridge publishes them; the same report gives 51–49 to the Coalition on 2022 preference flows", "effective sample 1,741 after weighting (80 per cent efficiency); margin of error ±2.3" ] }, { "id": "fw-2603", "house": "freshwater", "start": "2026-03-19", "end": "2026-03-23", "n": 1062, "alp": 27, "lib": 30, "on": 20, "grn": 14, "oth": 9, "tpp": 52, "leaders": { "allan": { "net": -32 }, "wilson": { "net": 18 } }, "premier": { "wilson": 47, "allan": 31 }, "src": "Freshwater Strategy for the Herald Sun; The Poll Bludger, 24 Mar 2026", "flags": [ "preferred premier inferred from the June report, which gives the prior reading as 47–31" ] }, { "id": "rs-2604", "house": "resolve", "start": "2026-04-12", "end": "2026-04-18", "n": 528, "alp": 26, "lib": 27, "on": 23, "grn": 11, "oth": 13, "tpp": null, "premier": { "wilson": 39, "allan": 20 }, "src": "Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Poll Bludger, 22 Apr 2026", "flags": [ "single-month sample; the two-month March–April combination was published as Labor 27, Coalition 29, One Nation 21" ] }, { "id": "rm-2604", "house": "morgan", "start": "2026-04-22", "end": "2026-04-24", "n": 1707, "alp": 25.5, "lib": 24, "on": 24.5, "grn": 13.5, "ind": 8.5, "oth": 4, "tpp": 49, "src": "Roy Morgan, special SMS survey, published 28 Apr 2026", "flags": [ "Eastern Victoria Region: One Nation 36, Coalition 28; Coalition 50.5–49.5 over One Nation" ] }, { "id": "fw-2606", "house": "freshwater", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-08", "n": 1034, "alp": 23, "lib": 27, "on": 25, "grn": 14, "oth": 11, "tpp": 53, "leaders": { "allan": { "net": -37 }, "wilson": { "net": 15 } }, "premier": { "wilson": 49, "allan": 25 }, "src": "Freshwater Strategy for the Herald Sun; The Conversation; The Poll Bludger, 8 Jun 2026", "flags": [] }, { "id": "da-2606", "house": "demosau", "post": "/news/demosau-vic-state-polling-results-june-2026/", "start": "2026-06-07", "end": "2026-06-11", "n": 1056, "effN": 654, "moe": 3.8, "alp": 21, "lib": 30, "on": 23, "grn": 15, "oth": 11, "tpp": 55, "leaders": { "allan": { "pos": 18, "neu": 25, "neg": 57, "net": -39 }, "wilson": { "pos": 32, "neu": 46, "neg": 22, "net": 10 } }, "premier": { "wilson": 47, "allan": 28 }, "src": "DemosAU / Premier National report, 7–11 June 2026 (PDF in this repository)", "flags": [] }, { "id": "yg-2606", "house": "yougov", "model": true, "start": "2026-06-16", "end": "2026-07-10", "n": 4003, "alp": 23, "lib": 26, "on": 24, "grn": 13, "oth": 14, "tpp": 53.8, "seats": { "lib": 39, "alp": 29, "on": 17, "grn": 3 }, "src": "YouGov MRP for Common Threads; The Poll Bludger, 10 Aug 2026", "flags": [ "MRP model — statewide figures and median seat forecast as published" ] }, { "id": "rb-2606", "house": "redbridge", "outlet": "Victorian Trades Hall", "model": true, "start": "2026-06-17", "end": "2026-06-28", "n": 5516, "alp": 26, "lib": 26, "on": 27, "grn": 13, "oth": 8, "tpp": 54, "tppAlpOn": 52, "leaders": { "allan": { "pos": 17, "neu": 24, "neg": 59, "net": -42 }, "wilson": { "pos": 31, "neu": 51, "neg": 18, "net": 13 }, "hanson": { "pos": 37, "neu": 17, "neg": 46, "net": -9 } }, "seats": { "lib": 39, "alp": 35, "on": 12, "grn": 2, "note": "17–28 Jun 2026 · sample reported as 5,516 and about 6,500 · MRP model estimate" }, "src": "RedBridge Group / Accent Research MRP for Victorian Trades Hall, leaked to the Financial Review and the Herald Sun in July 2026; The Conversation; The Tally Room", "flags": [ "an MRP model commissioned by Victorian Trades Hall and leaked in July 2026, not a RedBridge poll for the Financial Review; its statewide figures and seat totals are model estimates", "the sample was reported as 5,516 by The Conversation and as about 6,500 by the Herald Sun; the pollster has not published the report", "the seat totals assume Coalition voters preference Labor ahead of One Nation, which its readers disputed" ] }, { "id": "rs-2607", "house": "resolve", "start": "2026-07-06", "end": "2026-07-12", "n": 1000, "alp": 27, "lib": 27, "on": 22, "grn": 12, "oth": 12, "tpp": null, "leaders": { "allan": { "net": -36 }, "wilson": { "net": 13 } }, "src": "Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Conversation; The Poll Bludger, 14 Jul 2026", "flags": [ "reported as fielded to 12 July; the week-long window is assumed" ] }, { "id": "np-2607", "house": "newspoll", "start": "2026-07-23", "end": "2026-07-26", "n": 1035, "alp": 28, "lib": 31, "on": 19, "grn": 13, "oth": 9, "tpp": 52, "leaders": { "allan": { "sat": 25, "dis": 71, "net": -46 }, "wilson": { "sat": 47, "dis": 39, "net": 8 } }, "premier": { "wilson": 51, "allan": 32 }, "govern": { "alp": 41, "lib": 35, "on": 18 }, "src": "The Australian; The Conversation; The Poll Bludger, 28 Jul 2026", "flags": [ "the last poll of the Allan premiership — published the day she resigned" ] }, { "id": "rb-2608", "house": "redbridge", "start": "2026-07-28", "end": "2026-08-01", "n": 1014, "alp": 23, "lib": 30, "on": 22, "grn": 14, "oth": 11, "tpp": 57, "tppAlpOn": 54, "leaders": { "carroll": { "pos": 14, "neg": 29, "net": -15 }, "wilson": { "pos": 33, "neg": 20, "net": 13 }, "hanson": { "pos": 34, "neg": 51, "net": -17 } }, "trust": { "lib": 47, "alp": 31 }, "src": "RedBridge Group / Accent Research for the Financial Review, August 2026 report; The Conversation; The Poll Bludger, 4 Aug 2026", "flags": [ "fieldwork opened on the day Ben Carroll was sworn in", "the two-party figures are on a base of 934 respondents" ] }, { "id": "fw-2608", "house": "freshwater", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-03", "n": 1020, "alp": 25, "lib": 30, "on": 22, "grn": 14, "oth": 9, "tpp": 52, "leaders": { "carroll": { "pos": 22, "neg": 29, "net": -7 } }, "premier": { "wilson": 32, "carroll": 19 }, "src": "Freshwater Strategy for the Herald Sun; The Conversation; The Poll Bludger", "flags": [ "preferred premier attributed to this wave by question type — the report seen listed it beside the RedBridge favourability figures" ] }, { "id": "rm-2608", "house": "morgan", "start": "2026-08-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "n": 2084, "alp": 26, "lib": 26, "on": 23.5, "grn": 12.5, "ind": 8, "oth": 4, "tpp": 51, "leaders": { "carroll": { "app": 51, "dis": 43, "net": 8 }, "wilson": { "app": 58.5, "dis": 38.5, "net": 20 }, "pickering": { "app": 35, "dis": 58.5, "net": -23.5 } }, "council": { "lib": 11, "on": 10, "alp": 9, "grn": 2, "undecided": 8, "note": "Roy Morgan's projection as reported: the Coalition and One Nation to at least 21 of 40 seats, Labor and the Greens 11, seven undecided. The account seen allocated 32 seats and named seven undecided; the remaining seat is drawn as not called, so eight cells are unallocated." }, "src": "Roy Morgan, special SMS survey, published 18 Aug 2026", "flags": [ "leader figures are job approval, not favourability", "fielded after Carroll's cabinet reshuffle (4 Aug) and One Nation's leadership announcement (3 Aug)" ] }, { "id": "da-2608", "house": "demosau", "start": "2026-08-06", "end": "2026-08-11", "n": 1007, "alp": 23, "lib": 32, "on": 22, "grn": 13, "oth": 10, "tpp": 55, "leaders": { "carroll": { "pos": 21, "neu": 42, "neg": 37, "net": -16 }, "wilson": { "pos": 35, "neu": 41, "neg": 24, "net": 11 }, "pickering": { "pos": 19, "neu": 43, "neg": 38, "net": -19 }, "sandell": { "pos": 16, "neu": 52, "neg": 32, "net": -16 } }, "premier": { "wilson": 43, "carroll": 34 }, "src": "DemosAU / Premier National release, 6–11 August 2026, as reported by DemosAU and The Poll Bludger, 17 Aug 2026", "flags": [ "the August report PDF is not in this repository, so effective sample, margin of error and crosstabs are absent" ] }, { "id": "rs-2608", "house": "resolve", "start": "2026-08-09", "end": "2026-08-15", "n": 1000, "alp": 25, "lib": 27, "on": 23, "grn": 12, "ind": 7, "oth": 6, "tpp": 53, "leaders": { "carroll": { "net": -4 }, "wilson": { "net": 18 } }, "premier": { "wilson": 26, "carroll": 20, "pickering": 10 }, "src": "Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Conversation, late Aug 2026", "flags": [ "preferred premier asked three ways, with Warren Pickering offered", "the two-party figure is respondent-allocated and was published for this wave, although Resolve publishes none for most; it is taken from The Conversation's write-up, and the register held it as not published until 15 September 2026" ] }, { "id": "rb-2609", "house": "redbridge", "post": "/news/redbridge-victoria-september-2026/", "start": "2026-09-01", "end": "2026-09-14", "n": 2371, "alp": 24, "lib": 29, "on": 25, "grn": 15, "oth": 7, "tpp": 56, "tppAlpOn": 53, "src": "RedBridge Group / Accent Research for the Financial Review; The Poll Bludger, 16 Sep 2026", "flags": [ "both two-party figures are respondent-allocated, stated as such in the report", "the others figure is the residual on the four primary votes reported; the report seen does not give it separately", "the figures rest on one account, The Poll Bludger's of 16 September 2026, as The Conversation had not written the wave up by then", "the widest two-party margin in the register, from its largest sample outside the June model" ] }, { "id": "rs-2609", "house": "resolve", "post": "/news/resolve-strategic-victoria-september-2026/", "start": "2026-09-06", "end": "2026-09-12", "n": 967, "alp": 25, "lib": 28, "on": 23, "grn": 12, "ind": 8, "oth": 5, "tpp": null, "premier": { "wilson": 28, "carroll": 20, "pickering": 8, "dk": 44 }, "src": "Resolve Strategic for The Age, reported 14 Sep 2026; The Conversation (A. Beaumont), 15 Sep 2026; The Poll Bludger, 16 Sep 2026, for the sample and the undecided share", "flags": [ "the fieldwork is stated as 6–12 September, a seven-day window", "preferred premier was asked three ways, with Warren Pickering offered, and 44 per cent were undecided", "no two-party figure was published, and a figure carried forward from an earlier wave would be an assumption rather than a reading, so none is recorded", "no likeability figure is recorded for this wave: The Age reports Warren Pickering with a net-positive rating, but the reports seen give no number for him, Ben Carroll or Jess Wilson", "the same survey asked whether two commitments were worth going into debt for, and respondents said the Suburban Rail Loop was not, 49–27, and Labor's publicly funded dental pledge was not, 41–35", "Resolve is the first house to publish two waves since the change of Premier" ] } ], "accent": { "label": "Accent Research for the University of Melbourne", "when": "August 2026", "n": 1002, "topThree": [ { "label": "Cost of living", "pct": 68 }, { "label": "Crime and public safety", "pct": 56 } ], "bestOnCostOfLiving": { "lib": 23.9, "alp": 18.8, "on": 15.7 }, "laborDefection": { "toOn": 13, "toLib": 11, "note": "Almost half of respondents who voted Labor in 2022 intend to vote differently. The report seen gives the two largest destinations; the remainder of the movement is not published." }, "src": "The Conversation, 'Exclusive poll shows nearly half of respondents defecting from Victorian Labor', Aug 2026" }, "issues": [ { "label": "Cost of living", "pct": 33, "hot": true }, { "label": "Crime and violence", "pct": 29, "hot": true }, { "label": "Debt and government spending", "pct": 11 }, { "label": "Housing and homelessness", "pct": 11 }, { "label": "Immigration", "pct": 4 }, { "label": "The state government", "pct": 4 }, { "label": "Corruption", "pct": 4 }, { "label": "Economic performance", "pct": 3 }, { "label": "Infrastructure", "pct": 2 }, { "label": "Health and welfare", "pct": 2 }, { "label": "Climate and environment", "pct": 2 }, { "label": "Social inequality", "pct": 1 }, { "label": "Social cohesion", "pct": 1 }, { "label": "Miscellaneous", "pct": 6, "muted": true }, { "label": "Don't know", "pct": 2, "muted": true } ], "cohorts": { "source": "DemosAU / Premier National, 7–11 June 2026 — the most recent published Victorian crosstabs; fielded before the change of premier", "statewide": { "label": "Victoria", "lib": 30, "alp": 21, "on": 23, "grn": 15, "oth": 11 }, "groups": [ { "label": "Gender", "rows": [ { "label": "Men", "lib": 33, "alp": 21, "on": 24, "grn": 12, "oth": 10 }, { "label": "Women", "lib": 27, "alp": 20, "on": 21, "grn": 19, "oth": 13 } ] }, { "label": "Age", "rows": [ { "label": "18–34", "lib": 18, "alp": 25, "on": 16, "grn": 33, "oth": 8 }, { "label": "35–54", "lib": 30, "alp": 19, "on": 28, "grn": 13, "oth": 10 }, { "label": "55+", "lib": 38, "alp": 19, "on": 22, "grn": 7, "oth": 14 } ] }, { "label": "Education", "rows": [ { "label": "School", "lib": 31, "alp": 21, "on": 23, "grn": 13, "oth": 12 }, { "label": "TAFE", "lib": 27, "alp": 14, "on": 31, "grn": 16, "oth": 12 }, { "label": "University", "lib": 32, "alp": 25, "on": 15, "grn": 18, "oth": 10 } ] }, { "label": "Housing", "rows": [ { "label": "Own outright", "lib": 41, "alp": 18, "on": 21, "grn": 9, "oth": 11 }, { "label": "Mortgage", "lib": 29, "alp": 19, "on": 24, "grn": 16, "oth": 12 }, { "label": "Renting", "lib": 17, "alp": 26, "on": 23, "grn": 23, "oth": 11 } ] }, { "label": "Income", "rows": [ { "label": "Under $45K", "lib": 26, "alp": 20, "on": 21, "grn": 17, "oth": 16 }, { "label": "$45–125K", "lib": 33, "alp": 21, "on": 26, "grn": 14, "oth": 6 }, { "label": "$125K+", "lib": 38, "alp": 21, "on": 19, "grn": 12, "oth": 10 } ] }, { "label": "Location", "rows": [ { "label": "Inner Melbourne", "lib": 30, "alp": 23, "on": 15, "grn": 19, "oth": 13 }, { "label": "Outer Melbourne", "lib": 32, "alp": 19, "on": 25, "grn": 15, "oth": 9 }, { "label": "Regional Victoria", "lib": 28, "alp": 20, "on": 27, "grn": 12, "oth": 13 } ] } ] }, "events": [ { "date": "2025-11-18", "label": "Wilson replaces Battin as Liberal leader", "short": "Wilson leads Liberals" }, { "date": "2026-02-01", "label": "One Nation appears in every house at 20–27%", "short": "One Nation arrives" }, { "date": "2026-05-02", "label": "Nepean by-election — One Nation 24.5% from a standing start", "short": "Nepean by-election" }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "label": "Allan resigns; Carroll sworn in as Premier", "short": "Carroll becomes Premier" }, { "date": "2026-08-03", "label": "Pickering announced as One Nation leader in Victoria", "short": "Pickering named" }, { "date": "2026-11-28", "label": "Election day", "short": "Election" } ], "nepean": { "date": "2026-05-02", "turnout": 83.6, "primary": [ { "label": "Liberal (Marsh)", "party": "lib", "pct": 38.7, "swing": -9.4 }, { "label": "One Nation (Hercus)", "party": "on", "pct": 24.5, "swing": null }, { "label": "Independent (Hutchison)", "party": "oth", "pct": 21, "swing": null }, { "label": "Greens (Healy)", "party": "grn", "pct": 9.4, "swing": null }, { "label": "Four others", "party": "oth", "pct": 6.4, "swing": null } ], "tcp": { "lib": 63.2, "ind": 36.8 }, "margin": 13.2, "marginSwing": 6.9, "note": "Labor did not contest. The Liberal margin against the independent grew by 6.9 points; One Nation, contesting the seat for the first time, finished second on primaries and did not make the final count.", "src": "Victorian Electoral Commission; Antony Green's swing tables" }, "pendulum": { "seatsTotal": 88, "majority": 45, "coalitionGain": 16, "uniformSwing": 7.6, "currentChamber": { "alp": 54, "lib": 29, "grn": 3, "ind": 2 }, "marginals": [ { "seat": "Bass", "margin": 0.2, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Pakenham", "margin": 0.4, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Hastings", "margin": 1.4, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Glen Waverley", "margin": 3.3, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Bayswater", "margin": 4.2, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Melton", "margin": 4.6, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Ashwood", "margin": 6.2, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Box Hill", "margin": 7.2, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Ringwood", "margin": 7.5, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Monbulk", "margin": 7.6, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Yan Yean", "margin": 4.3, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Sunbury", "margin": 6.4, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Bentleigh", "margin": 8, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Mordialloc", "margin": 8.2, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Point Cook", "margin": 8.3, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Frankston", "margin": 8.7, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Eltham", "margin": 9, "holder": "alp" }, { "seat": "Carrum", "margin": 9.8, "holder": "alp" } ], "note": "The margins are notional margins after the redistribution, as named in Antony Green's pendulum commentary: the eastern seats, the outer south-east, the Frankston line and the outer west and north. The list holds the eighteen seats that commentary names under ten per cent rather than the full pendulum of 54 Labor seats. Werribee is a Labor-v-independent margin and is not listed.", "src": "Antony Green's Election Blog, 2026 Victorian Election Pendulum (July 2026)" }, "flows": { "grnAlp": 90, "onLib": 75, "othLib": 55 }, "scenarioSliders": { "onLib": { "min": 40, "max": 95 }, "grnAlp": { "min": 70, "max": 98 }, "othLib": { "min": 30, "max": 80 } }, "methodology": [ [ "What this is", "This is a compilation of every published Victorian state voting-intention poll from seven houses, June 2025 to September 2026, with Ace Strategies' own analysis of what they agree and disagree on. Accent Research's attitudes study for the University of Melbourne is drawn on in Act V and is not a voting-intention wave, so it is not one of the seven." ], [ "Disclosure", "Ace Strategies publishes DemosAU's polling as its research and polling partner, and DemosAU polled for Ace Strategies in October 2025 and for Premier National in 2026. Its waves enter this compilation on the same terms as every other house's, because every average on this page is an unweighted mean in which no house is weighted above another and none is left out." ], [ "Figures", "Every figure is transcribed from the pollster's published release or report, and nothing is modelled or interpolated. Three DemosAU reports were read from the PDFs on this site, and the rest came from the pollster and from the poll write-ups at The Conversation and The Poll Bludger." ], [ "Cross-house trend", "The trend is a Gaussian-kernel local average over fieldwork midpoints, with σ = 35 days and every poll weighted equally. It is a smoother, not a forecast." ], [ "Post-change average", "The average is the unweighted mean of the seven polls fielded after 28 July 2026, and the two-party mean uses the six that published one." ], [ "Uncertainty bands", "The bands show sampling error only, at ±1.96 standard errors of the weighted mean from each poll's published sample, with 1,000 assumed where none was published. House effects are larger, and they are shown in Act II rather than folded into the band." ], [ "House effect", "The house effect is each house's reading minus the mean of every poll in the field within 21 days of it, averaged over that house's 2026 waves. The two MRP models are left out of it on both sides, because a modelled statewide figure is not a house's poll reading." ], [ "Scenario 2PP", "The scenario starts from any wave's primary votes and applies the preference flows recorded at the 2025 federal election in Victoria as its defaults, with Greens 90–10 to Labor, One Nation 75–25 to the Coalition and others 55–45 to the Coalition, each adjustable. Those are the flows DemosAU adopts as its own two-party method. It is a projection, and it is labelled as one wherever it appears." ], [ "Leader ratings", "Each house's own measure is used and named in every tooltip: satisfaction for Newspoll, favourability for RedBridge, DemosAU and Freshwater, likeability for Resolve, and job approval for Roy Morgan. They are plotted together and are not interchangeable." ], [ "Not included", "The story includes no federal figure, no seat-level flow and no DemosAU crosstab later than June 2026." ], [ "Standards", "DemosAU holds the Australian Polling Council Quality Mark, and each house's methodology statement is linked from its own release." ] ] }