Ace Strategies

Name: Capital Brief / DemosAU Federal MRP Model, May–July 2026
Published: 2026-07-27T07:55:00.000Z
License: https://acestrategies.au/legal/terms/
Keywords: Primary vote by party, Central seat projection, Range of seat outcomes, Vote by gender, Vote by education, Vote by income, Vote by location, Vote by state or territory, Vote by past federal vote, Australia, DemosAU, voting intention polling

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 19 September 2026

2026-09-19T10:43:00+10:00

The register compiles seven polling houses where the page had said eight, and every count on the page follows. Accent Research's attitudes study for the University of Melbourne published no Victorian voting-intention wave, so it is credited in the method section as the source of the Act V issues figures rather than counted among the houses whose polls are averaged: the hero chip, the opening line, the lede, the field chart's title and source line, the Dataset description and this method note now read seven houses where they read eight, and the houses table, which has always held seven rows, is unchanged. The method notes also carried the post-change counts from before RedBridge's September wave was added; they read seven polls and six two-party readings now rather than six and five, which is what the hero, the In brief list and the entries below have said since that wave landed. The publication entry of 8 September was corrected with them. No poll's figures, no average and no uncertainty band changed.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 19 September 2026

2026-09-19T00:00:00+10:00

The post-change two-party average carries a second band beside its sampling error. The sampling band is unchanged at ± 1.1 and still shows sampling error alone; the new figure, ± 1.9 across houses, is 1.96 standard errors of the mean taken from the spread of the six published readings, so it carries the disagreement between houses that the sampling band leaves out, from a standard deviation of 2.37 points across the six and 0.97 of a point on their mean. The preference-scenario panel also states the distance between the two-party figure the scenario builds from the post-change primary votes at the default flows, 53.2, and the 54.0 the houses themselves published, a gap of 0.8 points. The scenario's default flows are labelled as the 2025 federal election flows in Victoria, which DemosAU adopts as its own two-party method, where they had been labelled as DemosAU's method alone. No figure in the register changed, and no average moved.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 19 September 2026

2026-09-19T00:00:00+10:00

A sensitivity table sits below the preference scenario, giving the projected two-party share at the post-change average primary votes for each setting of the One Nation flow to the Coalition from 60–40 to 85–15, with the uniform swing each implies and whether it clears the 7.6 points a majority needs on a uniform swing. At the default of 75–25 it gives 53.2 and a swing of 8.2; at 60–40 it gives 49.8 and 4.8, and at 85–15 it gives 55.5 and 10.5, so three of the six settings clear the line and three fall short. The Greens and others hold their defaults throughout. Every figure in the table is a projection from the average rather than a reading from a poll, and the panel exports it as CSV. No figure in the register changed.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 17 September 2026

2026-09-17T00:00:00+10:00

The page takes its most recent wave, and the span it reports covering, from the date fieldwork closed rather than from the middle of it. RedBridge / Accent's September wave was in the field from 1 to 14 September and Resolve Strategic's from 6 to 12, so RedBridge's closed two days later while its midpoint falls two days earlier: the hero line and the Latest-reading block had named Resolve as the most recent poll, and the dataset's temporal coverage had ended on 12 September while the register held fieldwork to the 14th. Both now follow the closing date. The charts still order by fieldwork midpoint, which is the axis a time series needs. No figure in the register changed.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 17 September 2026

2026-09-17T00:00:00+10:00

RedBridge / Accent's wave for the Financial Review, fielded 1–14 September 2026 from a sample of 2,371, was added as the thirty-first wave and the seventh since the change of Premier: Coalition 29, One Nation 25, Labor 24, Greens 15 and others 7, with respondent-allocated two-party figures of 56–44 to the Coalition over Labor and 53–47 to Labor over One Nation. It is the widest two-party margin in the register. The post-change two-party average moves from 53.6–46.4 over five houses to 54.0–46.0 over six, its sampling error from ±1.3 to ±1.1, the swing it implies from 8.6 to 9.0 points and the margin by which that clears the majority line from 1.0 to 1.4; four of the six post-change two-party readings now clear the line rather than three of five, and seventeen named seats fall to the average swing rather than fifteen. The post-change primary averages move from Coalition 28.8, Labor 24.5, One Nation 22.6, Greens 12.9 and others 11.3 to 28.9, 24.4, 22.9, 13.2 and 10.7. Preferred premier is unchanged at 16 of the 16 polls that asked, by a median of 11 points.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 17 September 2026

2026-09-17T00:00:00+10:00

Resolve Strategic's September wave carries the sample its report gives, 967 rather than the 1,000 recorded when it was added, and the preferred-premier question's undecided share, 44 per cent, which was not in the reports seen at the time. No average, primary vote or uncertainty band changed.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 15 September 2026

2026-09-15T00:00:00+10:00

Resolve Strategic's August wave, fielded 9–15 August 2026, now carries the two-party figure it published, 53–47 to the Coalition by respondent preferences, which the register had held as not published. The post-change two-party average is taken over five houses rather than four and moves from 53.8–46.2 to 53.6–46.4, the swing it implies from 8.8 to 8.6 points, and three of the five post-change two-party readings clear the majority line rather than two of four. No primary vote, primary average, preferred-premier figure or seat model changed.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 15 September 2026

2026-09-15T00:00:00+10:00

Resolve Strategic's wave for The Age, fielded 6–12 September 2026 from a sample of 1,000, was added as the thirtieth wave and the sixth since the change of Premier: Coalition 28, Labor 25, One Nation 23, Greens 12, independents 8 and others 5, with no two-party figure published. The post-change primary averages moved from Coalition 29.0, Labor 24.4, One Nation 22.5, Greens 13.1 and others 11.0 to 28.8, 24.5, 22.6, 12.9 and 11.3; the two-party average, the within-house shift panel and both seat models are unchanged; and the Opposition Leader now leads on preferred premier in 16 of the 16 polls that asked, by a median of 11 points rather than 13.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 13 September 2026

2026-09-13T00:00:00+10:00

Two RedBridge / Accent waves the register had never held were added: 8–14 October 2025, a sample of 1,501, and 24 November to 8 December 2025, a sample of 1,021, the second from the pollster's own report. The register now holds 29 waves. Sample sizes and fieldwork dates for the June and September 2025 RedBridge waves were taken from the same contemporaneous reports the register already cited for them, and both waves are now complete. No post-change average or two-party figure moved.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 13 September 2026

2026-09-13T00:00:00+10:00

The house-effect panel now leaves the two MRP models out on both sides, because a modelled statewide figure is not a house's poll reading: YouGov, whose only wave is its MRP, has no mark, and RedBridge's marks rest on its two Financial Review waves. No figure in the register changed.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 13 September 2026

2026-09-13T00:00:00+10:00

RedBridge / Accent's June wave is one survey again: the figures the Financial Review reported are the Trades Hall MRP's own statewide estimates, published after the model was leaked in July, so the split made earlier today is reversed and the wave is marked as a model with both reported sample sizes flagged. RedBridge's June and September 2025 primary votes now follow its own published back-series, Roy Morgan's April wave gains its Greens, independent and others shares, and RedBridge's February and August waves gain a method note and a Labor-v-One Nation figure. No Coalition–Labor two-party figure or seat total changed.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 13 September 2026

2026-09-13T00:00:00+10:00

RedBridge / Accent's June wave was split into the two polls it had held as one: the Financial Review poll of 17–28 June keeps the vote shares, two-party figures and favourability readings, and the seat model now sits on its own wave as the MRP for Victorian Trades Hall, reported in July from roughly 6,500 respondents. No vote share, two-party figure or seat total changed.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 13 September 2026

2026-09-13T00:00:00+10:00

Two waves were corrected against the pollsters' own releases: Freshwater's February fieldwork is 19–23 February 2026 with a sample of 1,030, and Roy Morgan's April survey has a sample of 1,707. No vote share or two-party figure changed.

Victorian election polls 2026, updated 8 September 2026

2026-09-08T00:00:00+10:00

The story was published with 27 waves from seven houses, covering fieldwork from 23 June 2025 to 15 August 2026. This entry read eight houses until 19 September 2026, when the count was corrected.

RedBridge Victoria September 2026

2026-09-17T23:00:00.000Z

RedBridge / Accent polled 2,371 Victorian voters from 1–14 Sep 2026 and has the Coalition ahead 56–44 after preferences. It is the thirtieth wave in the Victorian election polls 2026 tracker, which now averages the polls fielded since the change of premier at 54–46 to the Coalition.

The numbers

On primary vote the Coalition is on 29 per cent, Labor 24, One Nation 25, the Greens 15 and others 7. This wave did not ask a preferred-premier question.

What moved

Against RedBridge / Accent's last wave, fielded 28 Jul – 1 Aug 2026, the Coalition is down one, Labor is up one, One Nation is up three, the Greens are up one and others are down four. Its two-party figure moved from 57–43 to 56–44, a shift of one point to Labor.

The cross-house trend did not follow it down: over the six weeks between RedBridge's two waves the trend across every house edged up from 53.6 to 53.9, and at 56 this wave still sits about two points above it.

Where that leaves the race

The post-change average across the six two-party readings published since the change of premier is 54–46 to the Coalition, give or take 1.1 points of sampling error, on a range from 51–49 to 57–43. Four of the six clear the 7.6-point uniform swing the Coalition needs for a majority, and the average clears it by 1.4. This wave on its own implies a swing of 11 points since 2022.

On the average the Coalition is past the line it needs, and past it by more than the sampling error around that average. What the average cannot settle is the spread beneath it: the published readings run from short of a majority to comfortably past one, and a gap that size between houses is a disagreement about the state rather than a shortage of sample.

Every wave from every house, the within-house shifts, the swing-o-meter and the seat model are on the tracker, which was updated with this poll on 17 September 2026.

Source: RedBridge Group / Accent Research for the Financial Review; The Poll Bludger, 16 Sep 2026. RedBridge / Accent for Financial Review, fieldwork 1–14 Sep 2026, n 2,371; two-party preferred by respondent-allocated preferences.

What the register notes on this wave

Both two-party figures are respondent-allocated, stated as such in the report.
The others figure is the residual on the four primary votes reported; the report seen does not give it separately.
The figures rest on one account, The Poll Bludger's of 16 September 2026, as The Conversation had not written the wave up by then.
The widest two-party margin in the register, from its largest sample outside the June model.

Resolve Strategic Victoria September 2026

2026-09-17T23:00:00.000Z

Resolve Strategic polled 967 Victorian voters from 6–12 Sep 2026 and does not publish a two-party figure for this wave. It is the thirty-first wave in the Victorian election polls 2026 tracker, which now averages the polls fielded since the change of premier at 54–46 to the Coalition.

The numbers

On primary vote the Coalition is on 28 per cent, Labor 25, One Nation 23, the Greens 12 and others 13. Jess Wilson leads Ben Carroll as preferred premier 28–20.

What moved

Against Resolve Strategic's last wave, fielded 9–15 Aug 2026, the Coalition is up one, and Labor, One Nation, the Greens and others did not move. The two waves cannot be compared on two-party preferred, because this one publishes no figure for it.

The cross-house trend did not move either: over the four weeks between Resolve's two waves it shifted by less than a fifth of a point on every party, so a flat wave and a flat line are saying the same thing.

Where that leaves the race

On the average the Coalition is past the line it needs, and past it by more than the sampling error around that average, but the readings underneath it still run from short of a majority to comfortably past one. This wave does not narrow that: Resolve publishes primary votes and no two-party figure, so it moves the average the seat model reads from and leaves the two-party question where the other houses left it.

Every wave from every house, the within-house shifts, the swing-o-meter and the seat model are on the tracker, which was updated with this poll on 17 September 2026.

Source: Resolve Strategic for The Age, reported 14 Sep 2026; The Conversation (A. Beaumont), 15 Sep 2026; The Poll Bludger, 16 Sep 2026, for the sample and the undecided share. Resolve Strategic for The Age, fieldwork 6–12 Sep 2026, n 967; no two-party figure is published for this wave.

What the register notes on this wave

The fieldwork is stated as 6–12 September, a seven-day window.
Preferred premier was asked three ways, with Warren Pickering offered, and 44 per cent were undecided.
No two-party figure was published, and a figure carried forward from an earlier wave would be an assumption rather than a reading, so none is recorded.
No likeability figure is recorded for this wave: The Age reports Warren Pickering with a net-positive rating, but the reports seen give no number for him, Ben Carroll or Jess Wilson.
The same survey asked whether two commitments were worth going into debt for, and respondents said the Suburban Rail Loop was not, 49–27, and Labor's publicly funded dental pledge was not, 41–35.
Resolve is the first house to publish two waves since the change of Premier.

Malinauskas holds steady in South Australia

2026-09-02T05:24:00.000Z

Driving the change in voting intention since June was a 4% swing from One Nation to Labor among over 55s and a similar swing among women (Labor up 4 %, One Nation down 3%).

Mr Malinauskas led as preferred premier (46%) over Cory Bernardi (20%) and Ashton Hur (17%) despite a -5% drop for the premier after the introduction of the One Nation SA leader into the Preferred Premier question. On personal ratings, Mr Malinauskas had a net positive score of 25% compared to a -2% for Hurn and -18% for Bernardi.

Voters were split on whether the state is going in the right direction or wrong direction (39% right direction, 40% wrong direction).

Cost of living and inflation was nominated as the biggest issue for SA voters (35%) and housing at 22%, according to analysis of an open-ended question.

DemosAU Head of Research said the poll showed strong support for the Malinauskas Government. “Peter Malinauskas is in a strong position in South Australia, having been able to increase Labor’s support by a further two percent since our last poll in June, bringing the Government back to its election level support “The Malinauskas Government is in a very good place right now and even his personal ratings are improving. The Premier’s appeal to SA voters still remains strong.

“One Nation remains in second with a nine percent lead over the Liberals and Cory Bernardi has debuted in second place as preferred premier.”

Ace Strategies Managing Director Matt Neagle said Labor had grown its support among key cohorts.

“What stands out in this poll is the movement among older voters and women. A four‑point swing from One Nation to Labor in both groups is significant. These are electorally decisive cohorts, and they’re moving back toward the Premier.”

“Cory Bernardi’s entry into state politics has reshaped the contest. One Nation remains firmly in second place and Bernardi debuts as the second‑preferred premier, but the data shows Labor has strengthened its position even with this new dynamic.”

“Cost of living remains the dominant pressure point for voters, followed by housing. These concerns are consistent with national trends, but the stability in Labor’s vote suggests South Australians believe the Government is handling these challenges better than most.”

DemosAU Federal Polling Results - August 2026

2026-08-26T09:00:00.000Z

One Nation has slipped into third place behind Labor and the Coalition, with One Nation's primary vote falling 5 points and Hanson's net personal ratings plummeting -8% since early July, according to today's new poll.

On a primary vote basis, Labor recorded 26% (no change since the July poll), the Coalition 25% (+4%), One Nation 24% (-5%), the Greens 12% (-2%) and Others 13% (+3%).

Hanson's drop in support was also reflected in her personal ratings and preferred PM decline. Hanson's net positive score is now at -17% (-8% since July) while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese improved 4 points to a -19 net positive score.

On preferred prime minister, Albanese led on 35% (no change) while Angus Taylor improved 1 point to 23% and Hanson dropped 4 points to third on 22%.

In a two-way preferred PM between Mr Albanese and Ms Hanson, Ms Hanson dropped 5 points to 32% while Albanese was on 43% (+1%). In a two-way preferred PM match-up with Angus Taylor, Mr Albanese held a more modest 38%-36% lead.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the poll clearly showed Hanson's support amongst women had fallen dramatically.

"In June, 39% of women had a positive view of Ms Hanson compared to 37% having a negative view. In August only 26% of women have a positive view of Ms Hanson while 52% have a negative view. In just two months Hanson's personal ratings amongst women have gone from slightly positive to now deeply negative."

The poll also carries a 20,000-simulation Monte Carlo seat projection, which applies a uniform national swing to DemosAU's May–July 2026 MRP model. It puts Labor on 61 to 73 seats, the Coalition on 32 to 50, One Nation on 26 to 39, the Greens on 0 to 5 and Others on 5 to 10. Seventy-six seats form a majority in the 150-seat House of Representatives.

Fieldwork ran from 18 to 20 August 2026 on an internet panel, with a sample of 1,562 and an effective sample after weighting of 754, giving an effective margin of error of ±3.6% at 95% confidence. No two-party preferred figure is published for this wave.

Our analysis of what moved and what the seat model does with it reads the recontact table, the gender split and the seat projection in full. If you are new to reading a poll, our guide to what a primary vote, a margin of error and a seat projection actually tell you covers the ideas this wave turns on.

New polling points to a hung Australian parliament

2026-07-27T07:55:00.000Z

The poll shows Australia would be headed for a finely balanced hung parliament with both Labor and One Nation having strong claims to form government, if the results were reflected at an election, according to DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos.

The MRP projects results for all 150 individual federal seats and provides an overall seat projection with ranges for each party.

Based on a Monte-Carlo probability analysis of 20,000 simulations, it shows if a federal election was held now, Labor would win 60-72 seats, One Nation would win 53-66 seats, Coalition 11–22 seats (Liberal 11-20, Nationals 0-2), Greens 1-5 seats, and Others 3-7.

The MRP projects, based on a two-candidate preferred vote, the ‘notional’ leader in each seat and categorises those seats as either “firm” (strongly favoured to win), “lean” (moderate chance of winning) or “in doubt” (too close to call).

To win government a party needs to win a minimum 76 seats — more than half of the total 150 seats. Of this, 45 seats are classified as Inner Metro, 64 as Outer Metro, and 41 as Regional/Rural.

In regional / rural seats, One Nation leads on 41% primary vote, Liberals 20%, Labor 18%, Greens 9% and 12% Others. The MRP indicates that One Nation is leading in 39 of the 41 seats with a live possibility of a clean sweep of all 41 seats.

In inner metro seats, Labor leads on 31% primary vote, followed by Liberals 21%, The Greens 18%, One Nation 19% and Others 11%. Labor still retains a strong advantage under the MRP in these seats leading in 34 of the 45 seats.

In outer metro seats — the seats which are most likely to decide government — One Nation leads on 30% primary vote, Labor 28%, Liberals 21%, Greens 12% and Others 9%. The MRP model indicates Labor still retains 34 of the 64 Outer Metro seats however One Nation has made significant inroads leading in 21 seats.

“The most significant finding of the MRP is that One Nation is now leading across many Outer Metro seats in Brisbane and Perth and also a few in outer Sydney and Outer Melbourne,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“It is in these seats which One Nation needs to win to have a chance of forming at least a minority government.

The next hard test of these numbers at state level is Victoria's election on 28 November 2026. Every Victorian state poll ahead of it, from seven houses, is on the Victorian election polls 2026 tracker.

DemosAU Federal Polling Results - July 2026

2026-07-13T12:23:00.000Z

Conducted from 02 to 08 July, the poll found Pauline Hanson's personal rating has dropped -6% to a -9% net positive score3 (34% positive and 43% negative).

This is still well ahead of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese who had a -23% net positive score (25% positive and 48% negative).

Albanese still leads Hanson 35%-26% on preferred Prime Minister, which shows no change for Albanese and -2% for Hanson since the June poll.

The poll also asked Australians wide-ranging questions on several key issues including house price falls, multi-culturalism, Donald Trump, childcare staffing, nuclear power and more.

Support for a Prime Minister like Donald Trump in Australia dropped to its lowest ever level with 16% agreeing we need a Prime Minister like Trump and 72% disagreeing.

Head of Research George Hasanakos said the polling showed some conservative voters were moving back to the Coalition.

"We see in this poll after Hanson's National Press Club address, the One Nation vote has slipped backwards a bit and the Coalition has gained three points.

"Labor is not seeing an uptick in support according to our polling as they struggle to win over voters in this era of rising cost of living."

"The polling shows a continuing trend of weaker support for Labor among women."

"The longstanding trend of female voters supporting more left leaning parties and men supporting more right leaning parties has been turned on its head. What we are seeing is that Albanese is more popular with men than he is with women, and by a clear margin."

Ace Strategies and DemosAU announce strategic partnership

2026-07-03T09:00:00.000Z

It combines Ace Strategies’ deep expertise in corporate affairs, strategic advisory and industry engagement with DemosAU’s market-leading research capabilities. This includes political and issue polling, message testing, MRP modelling and Conversational AI qualitative research.

Successful business growth campaigns demand more than intuition or legacy experience, they require real-time, high-quality data that can guide strategy, shape messaging, and de-risk decision-making - leaders now have access to a comprehensive engine for strategic growth.

As a trusted member of the Australian Polling Council, DemosAU’s track record speaks for itself. It has emerged in the top tier of Australian pollsters based on its proven accuracy.

Ace Strategies will integrate these insights into bespoke growth campaigns, stakeholder engagement strategies, and market positioning programs, ensuring leaders can move decisively, backed by evidence they can trust, to make meaningful impact.

Ace Strategies Managing Director Matt Neagle said business leaders today face unprecedented complexity across new markets, new technologies, and evolving expectations.

“The organisations that win are those that make decisions anchored in evidence, not assumptions,” Mr Neagle said.

“Our partnership with DemosAU ensures our clients have access to the most accurate, sophisticated and actionable insights available in Australia.”

“This is about giving leaders the confidence to act boldly and strategically.”

DemosAU Director Evan Scwarten said their ethos has always been to provide business and political leaders with clear, accurate and unbiased information.

“Our clients can be confident that the data and insights they receive from DemosAU are reliable and accurate and will be seen as such by stakeholders in government, media and industry, Mr Schwarten said.

“We’ve built a reputation for delivering research that stands up to real-world outcomes and partnering with Ace Strategies allows us to bring that capability to organisations seeking strategic growth.”

“Together, we’re enabling leaders to understand not just what people think, but why, and how to act on it.”

Director and Head of Research at DemosAU George Hasanakos said high-quality data is the foundation of any successful campaign or strategic initiative.

“Whether it’s demographic modelling, electorate-level projections, or large-scale qualitative insights, our work is designed to give organisations a genuine competitive advantage,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“Partnering with Ace Strategies means these insights can be deployed with precision, impact and strategic clarity.”

Business leaders can now access a unified suite of research-driven strategic services, including:

• Political, issue and sentiment polling

• Message testing and ad creative evaluation

• Audience analysis and segmentation

• Campaign impact measurement

• Conversational AI qualitative research

• Advanced MRP modelling for electorate-level projections

• Strategic advisory, government relations and stakeholder engagement

• Integrated business growth campaign design and execution.

Corporate and industry leaders seeking to strengthen their strategic decision-making, sharpen their market positioning, or launch a data-driven growth campaign should contact: Matt Neagle - Managing Director, Ace Strategies mattneagle@acestrategies.au

Ace Strategies and Grant Law PR Partner

2026-07-01T09:00:00.000Z

The partnership combines Ace Strategies’ deep expertise in government relations, stakeholder engagement, strategic communications, business growth, and new-market entry support, with Grant Law PR’s 30-year record of corporate communications, crisis and issues management, executive training, global PR experience and high-quality corporate video and podcast content production.

Ace Strategies Managing Director said the partnership reflects a shared commitment to deliver senior-level counsel, practical execution and enduring outcomes for clients in their most important moments, from strategic campaigns, to navigating complex challenges.

“This partnership brings together two highly complementary skillsets,” Mr Neagle said.

“Ace Strategies offers sector-specific insight, national networks and strategic advisory capability, while Grant brings world-class PR experience, crisis management expertise and exceptional content development including corporate videography and a full-service podcast studio that specialises in corporate podcast production.”

“The partnership enhances the ability of both firms to support clients’ business development objectives across the full lifecycle of communication, engagement, and reputation needs.”

Grant Law of Grant Law Public Relations said that the integration of these services meets a very real market need.

“Our combined capability means clients can access everything from strategic positioning and government engagement to media relations, stakeholder management, content creation and issues response – all through a single, integrated team,” Mr Law explained.

“Both firms bring a wealth of experience and have achieved success through building trust with our clients - our shared focus is to deliver meaningful, long-term results that make an impact.”

The partnership will support clients across government, defence, national security, infrastructure, energy, technology, health, professional services and community organisations.

It offers a blend of political insight, industry knowledge, creative craft, and senior-level execution.

Clients will benefit from:

• Integrated strategic communications, media management, and government engagement

• Senior counsel from practitioners with decades of lived experience

• National and international networks across industry, government, and media

• High-quality content production, including videography and broadcast-ready assets

• Agility, responsiveness, and a personalised, discreet service model

• Capability to support market entry, major announcements, sensitive issues, and reputation-critical moments.

Mr Neagle said the partnership strengthens the ability of both firms to support organisations seeking to grow, influence, communicate and succeed in competitive or regulated markets.

“We are proud to formalise a partnership that enhances our collective impact and provides clients with a trusted, high-performing team, that can operate confidently in any environment,” he said.

DemosAU SA State Polling Results - June 2026

2026-06-25T13:43:00.000Z

SA voting intention poll of 931 South Australians. Labor leads One Nation 56-44 TPP. Primary vote: Labor 35%, One Nation 26%, Liberal 18%, Greens 13%. Fieldwork: 29 May-15 June 2026.

DemosAU Federal Polling Results - June 2026

2026-06-18T15:48:00.000Z

DemosAU Federal poll conducted in June 2026, based on 1,497 respondents nationwide.

Primary vote (national)L One Nation 30%, Labor 27%, LNP 18%, Greens 13%, Other 12%.

DemosAU NSW State Polling Results - June 2026

2026-06-18T13:59:00.000Z

DemosAU NSW voting intention poll, conducted 15-18 June 2026.

Primary vote: Labor 32%, One Nation 27%, Liberal 20%, Greens 13%, Other 8%.

Sample: 1,038 people from NSW. Effective margin of error: 3.8%.

DemosAU WA State Polling Results - June 2026

2026-06-15T19:07:00.000Z

The poll of 1,015 Western Australian voters conducted between 29 May and 11 June 2026, shows Labor on a primary vote of 33% (-3% swing since a February 2026 poll), Liberals on 23% (2% swing), One Nation 18% (1% swing), Greens 12% (-1% swing), Others 11% (2% swing) and Nationals WA 3% ( -1% swing).

Roger Cook leads Basil Zempilas on preferred premier 44-33%. Zempilas is up 3% since February compared to Cook up 1%.

More voters believe the state is heading in the wrong direction (43%) compared to the right direction (36%). The wrong direction score was -3% since February 2026.

The top issues for Western Australians were housing (34% - no change since February) and cost of living and inflation 33% (2% since February).

DemosAU VIC State Polling Results - June 2026

2026-06-15T18:38:00.000Z

The LNP are leading on primary votes (30%), One Nation second on 23%, and Labor on 21%. The Greens are steady on 15% and Others on 11%. Labor recorded a -2% swing since DemosAU's February poll, making it a -15.7% swing since the last election. One Nation is up 2% since February and the LNP 1%.

DemosAU QLD State Polling Results - June 2026

2026-06-08T18:05:00.000Z

The poll of 1,033 Queensland voters, conducted from 27 May to 3 June 2026, shows the LNP primary vote steady at 34%, with Labor down 3 points to 25% and One Nation up 3 points to 24%. The Greens were steady on 10%, with Others steady on 7%.

Premier David Crisafulli holds a clear lead over Opposition Leader Steven Miles, with 47% selecting him as preferred premier, compared to 30% for Miles.

DemosAU Federal Polling Results - May 2026

2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Capital Brief/DemosAU federal voting intention poll, conducted 15–20 May 2026.

Primary vote: One Nation 28%, Labor 26%, Coalition 23%, Greens 13%, Other 10%.

Against the 2025 federal election result that is a swing of 21.6 points to One Nation, 8.8 points away from the Coalition and 8.6 points away from Labor, with the Greens up 0.8 and others down 5.0.

Seat projection: Labor 65–74, One Nation 47–58, Coalition 16–28, Greens 1–5, Others 2–6.

Preferred Prime Minister: Anthony Albanese (Labor) 34%, Pauline Hanson (One Nation) 27%, Angus Taylor (Liberal) 23%, don't know 16%.

Leader net ratings: Pauline Hanson +3%, Angus Taylor +1%, Anthony Albanese -20%.

Hypothetical — without Pauline Hanson: asked how they would vote if Hanson announced her retirement and Barnaby Joyce led One Nation, respondents put Labor on 28%, the Coalition 27%, One Nation 21%, the Greens 14% and others 10% — One Nation seven points lower than on the live question. Seat projection: Labor 74–83, Coalition 36–52, One Nation 15–24.

Biggest issue facing Australia: cost of living 39%, housing affordability 14%, immigration 12%, the economy 10%. The question was open-ended and its categories were generated by AI; responses can fall into more than one category, so the totals do not sum to 100%.

Budget: 43% call the 2026 Federal Budget generally bad against 23% generally good. Ending negative gearing for existing homes purchased after 12 May 2026 draws 34% approval to 29% disapproval; scrapping the 50% capital gains tax discount 28% to 29%; a minimum 30% tax rate on family trusts 27% to 34%.

Sample: 1,502 Australians aged 18+ eligible to vote. Effective sample after weighting: 754. Effective margin of error: ±3.6%.

Method: Online, with the sample drawn from internet panels. Rim weighting on age by gender, education, personal income, residential tenure, language, region, 2025 federal vote and left-right self-identification. Federal voting intention was the first substantive question after demographics. Initial undecided voters were asked a leaner question and the remaining 7% of undecided respondents were excluded from the totals. No two-party preferred figure was calculated for this wave.

Full question text, response categories and randomisation are set out in the report.

North Adelaide Golf Course: What You Might Not Know

2026-05-01T00:00:00.000Z

Opinion · Community · SA

What You Might Not Know

About the North Adelaide Golf Course

A misinformation campaign has spread claims about "stolen" parklands, elitist fencing and mass tree destruction. Ace Strategies Strategic Counsel and NAGC President Kevin Naughton sets the record straight on the history, botany, ecology and future of golf at North Adelaide.

Kevin Naughton Ace Strategies Strategic Counsel & NAGC President

May 2026

If you thought your park lands were being "stolen" and "thousands of giant trees cut down" to "make a golf course" and "permanently fenced off" for "elites and millionaires" then no wonder you're upset about the redevelopment of North Adelaide Golf Course. But is it for elites, is it new, is it on precious wildlife habitats, and are these trees central to local ecology?

History

Golf at North Adelaide dates from 1890 when tree-less cow paddocks at Montefiore Park became home to the North Adelaide Golf Club, which later incorporated as NAGC in 1904 as a foundation member of the South Australian Golf Association.

Around the same time the Adelaide Golf Club had a course on the LeFevre Terrace park lands and later moved to a permanent home at Seaton, now known as Royal Adelaide Golf Club. North Adelaide had a lease on the Montefiore Park course with a clubhouse and sheds. In 1921, after being offered an additional lease, it partnered with Adelaide City Council to make the course a public "municipal golf links".

Botany

Urban-based golf courses require trees, bushes and grasses, hence the 9,000 trees now onsite. From the 1960s onwards the tree planting program was stepped up and many different species from around the world were planted or grew from naturally dispersed seeds.

If you want to know what the area would look like without golf, head around the corner to LeFevre Terrace and see the barren paddocks that are home for half a dozen grazing horses. Almost nothing has been done since the Adelaide group left.

At North Adelaide, whilst it's home to more than 9,000 trees and bushes, several tree varieties were erroneously planted and are now classified as "invasive" and "super-thirsty". These trees have been marked for removal for some time and form part of the current removal and replacement program. One variety, the white poplar, has a notoriously aggressive root system that uses excessive amounts of water and impacts other vegetation. Due to its aggressive suckering, it is widely classified as an environmental weed or invasive pest in NSW, the ACT, Victoria, South Australia, and WA.

Ecology

The areas on and around the golf course were transformed from around 1960. According to parks historians, trees were dense on the banks of the River Torrens from the Weir and around the area now home to the Par 3. Often referred to as "possum park" this area is outside the current redevelopment zone. The tree planting post-1960 on the course has created its own ecology, which exists side-by-side with golfing activity.

For the first time in its more than 136 years as a golf course, it will have an ecological and botanical plan aimed at exhibiting a world-class showcase of fauna and flora within a recreational precinct.

"For the first time in 136 years, the course will have an ecological and botanical plan aimed at exhibiting a world-class showcase of fauna and flora."

North Adelaide Golf Course at dusk — a public recreational asset at the heart of Adelaide's Park Lands since 1890.

Ownership

Ownership of the area has not changed. The Park Lands have been protected by various legislative instruments and trusts since being planned as a green circle around the new town of Adelaide in 1837. Their strongest protection is embodied in the Adelaide Park Lands Act of 2005. It states the Adelaide Park Lands "should be held for the public benefit of the people of South Australia and should be generally available to them for their use and enjoyment".

Under that state legislation, the management of the area sits with the Adelaide Park Lands Authority, a subsidiary of the Adelaide City Council. Where needed, management of a particular area returns to the state government or other bodies, such as the zoo, botanic gardens, university art galleries, hospitals etc. Sport remains a key part of the "use and enjoyment" with the Park Lands home to archery, tennis, hockey, bowls, croquet, football, cricket, athletics, swimming, netball, basketball, rowing etc.

In the case of the golf course, the Adelaide City Council had shown since 1997 that whilst it endorsed several redevelopment plans (many like the current one), it didn't have the financial nor administrative capacity. That management role has now transferred back to the state government, but the land remains as part of the Park Lands and its use remains as a public golf course. It remains "for the use and enjoyment" "of the people of South Australia".

"The land remains as part of the Park Lands. Its use remains as a public golf course — for the use and enjoyment of the people of South Australia."

"Elitists and Millionaires?"

The resident club's registered players come from all around Adelaide, from all walks of life and include people learning the game and those with a long-held interest. Unlike the upmarket private clubs, there's no massive joining fee or high annual fee. All South Australians can play there; you won't need to be "introduced".

A mere five per cent of NAGC's players are from North Adelaide 5006. It was the first metro club in the state to have a female president and got rid of separate classifications for women players last century.

The cost to play, as required under the North Adelaide Public Golf Course Act 2025, must be "affordable".

Disruption for Major Events

The course will not be "closed for months" for each international event. It's being purpose-built and configured to be at the standard needed for an Australian Open or LIV event. Current LIV host, Grange Golf Club, has had to reconfigure its two 18-hole courses into one suitable set of 18. It also had to bring in temporary infrastructure and utilities.

Fences

The claim that the new course will have permanent fencing is wrong. Legislation bans it and it's not needed. Unlike the private clubs that seek to keep people out, this course has always operated as an open park land. It's common for international championship courses overseas to be unfenced.

Redevelopment and Removal of Trees

The removal and replacement program ensures the area remains as a beautiful green space. Sometimes, trees have to go. Remember how many thousands of trees were removed to build the 24km of concrete O-Bahn busway along the rich fertile banks of the River Torrens? As you drive through it today, you wouldn't know any had ever gone.

Trees are cut and milled to make house frames, tables, chairs, toilet paper and wrapping on almost everything you buy. Trees are a sustainable, renewable resource. That's why this renovation removes wrongly planted varieties, adds more appropriate types and increases the total number in the precinct.

The proposed new facilities — purpose-built for public play and world-class events.

"It's a nasty campaign that will prove to have been wrong in almost every respect."

The Protest Campaign

Finally, if you think spreading lies (5,400 trees, 7-storey high fences, elitist restrictions etc) is a smart way to increase the profile of a handful of local council election candidates, then consider the impact you're having on staff, contractors, volunteers, players and their families. It's a nasty campaign that will prove to have been wrong in almost every respect.

We respect the right to any opinion, but this campaign features falsehoods, fake social media accounts and images and false information.

The Centre Cannot Hold — Opinion

2026-05-01T00:00:00.000Z

Opinion · Federal Politics · Political Realignment

The Centre Cannot Hold

One Nation at 27 per cent is not an aberration. It is a verdict.

The DemosAU Federal MRP Model for Q1 2026 records the most significant reorganisation of the Australian political landscape since the rise of The Greens. The question neither major party has yet seriously attempted to answer: what do those voters want, and why has the mainstream failed to deliver it?

Guy Boekenstein Former Strategic Counsel, Ace Strategies

May 2026

In the spring of 2025, Labor won a federal election with a primary vote that would have been considered a defeat at almost any election since 1969. And One Nation — a movement that most professional observers had twice consigned to irrelevance — emerged as the second largest party in the country by primary vote.

The DemosAU Federal MRP Model for the first quarter of 2026 now shows One Nation at 27 per cent nationally. That is not a polling artifact. It is a structural condition. And it raises a question that neither major party has yet seriously attempted to answer: what do those voters want, and why has the mainstream political system failed to deliver it?

What the Numbers Show

The 27 per cent One Nation result sits alongside ALP at 29 per cent and the Coalition at 21 per cent. At a national level, more Australians now prefer a party that did not win a single seat at the 2025 federal election than prefer the party that governed Australia for most of the past decade.

The seat projection model — derived from the same March 2026 MRP dataset — gives One Nation 52 seats on a uniform swing from current primary vote shares. More than the combined total of every non-Labor, non-One Nation party. These are not marginal numbers. They are a wholesale redistribution of political authority.

These are not protest voters in the traditional sense. They are not expressing frustration with a particular policy, a particular leader, or a single issue. They represent something more systemic: a withdrawal of confidence from the institutional centre of Australian politics.

One Nation's rise is not a message to be managed. It is a diagnosis to be understood.

What is Driving It

The academic literature on populist vote movements points to a consistent set of drivers: economic dislocation concentrated in particular geographies, a perception that the major parties have converged on a narrow set of cultural and economic assumptions, and a loss of trust in expert institutions — media, public service, universities — that have historically legitimised the political mainstream.

All three conditions are present in Australia in 2026. Regional economies have not shared proportionally in the resource and services boom. The major parties' platforms at the 2025 election were closer to each other on most issues than any major-party contest in living memory. And trust in media, the public service, and the judiciary has fallen to historic lows in every longitudinal survey conducted in the past three years.

None of that is One Nation's doing. The party has benefited from a vacuum it did not create.

The realignment of the centre-right is not a regional phenomenon. DemosAU data shows significant crossover of former Liberal voters to One Nation in every state and demographic cohort.

The Problem for the Coalition

For the Coalition, the One Nation surge presents a strategic dilemma without a clean resolution. A 21 per cent primary vote for the combined Coalition parties represents an existential challenge. At those levels, the seat model returns fewer than ten seats — a parliamentary position that would require a generation to rebuild from.

The temptation will be to move toward One Nation on policy: to harden positions on immigration, trade, and cultural questions. Some in the Coalition are already making that case. But there are two problems with that strategy. The first is that it concedes to One Nation the moral authority to define the boundaries of conservative debate. The second is that it does not work: when mainstream parties chase populist competitors on their own ground, they typically lose voters from both directions simultaneously.

The alternative — to hold the centre and argue for a broadly liberal democratic settlement — is unpopular with the party's current base but arguably necessary for long-term institutional survival.

The Liberal Party must choose: compete for voters who have left, or consolidate around a rump. It cannot do both.

There is no short-term fix for what the DemosAU data describes. The numbers do not record a moment of volatility. They record the beginning of a structural realignment whose endpoint is not yet visible. The task for serious political organisations — in government, in opposition, and in the advocacy and analysis community — is to understand it clearly before attempting to respond to it.

The first step is resisting the temptation to explain it away.

Labor vote falls during campaign but Malinauskas still on track for big victory

2026-03-19T00:00:00.000Z

New polling released today shows the Malinauskas government easily on track for re-election, despite losing ground to One Nation during the election campaign period.

The DemosAU/Ace Strategies final pre-election poll of 1,242 South Australians shows Labor on a primary vote of 37% (−6% change since February poll), One Nation 23% (+4%), Liberal 17% (−1%), The Greens 11% (−1%) and Others 12% (+4%).

The surge in support for One Nation means the Liberals stay in third place and are at risk of being replaced as the official opposition.

Peter Malinauskas leads Ashton Hurn on preferred premier 56–21%. A total of 46% of South Australians believe the Malinauskas Labor Government deserves to be re-elected, compared to 28% who disagreed.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said while the campaign had dented Labor's lead, they were still on track for a big victory.

"The Labor vote has fallen throughout the campaign as One Nation's momentum has grown and numerous independents and minor parties have thrown their hat in the ring. Despite this there is an underlying positive sentiment towards Labor where more people believe the state is heading in the right direction."

"The big question on Saturday night will be how high One Nation can go and how strongly One Nation voters preference the Liberals or whether they put Labor second."

Ace Strategies Managing Director Matt Neagle said that despite the softening in Labor's primary vote, Peter Malinauskas retains a commanding lead as preferred premier.

"The decision to elevate Ashton Hurn hasn't delivered the honeymoon the Liberals needed. Her numbers are flat, and the party's primary vote remains deeply depressed."

"This poll shows the Liberals are defending on two fronts — Labor in the suburbs and One Nation in the regions. That's an incredibly difficult position for any Opposition."

The poll of 1,242 South Australian voters was conducted from 12 to 18 March 2026 with an effective margin of error of ±3.4%.

DemosAU SA State Polling Results - March 2026

2026-03-18T00:00:00.000Z

DemosAU and Ace Strategies final pre-election SA State voting intention poll, conducted 12–18 March 2026 — days before the 21 March 2026 state election.

Primary vote: Labor 37%, One Nation 23%, Liberal 17%, Greens 11%, Other 12%.

The surge in One Nation support means the Liberals risk being replaced as the official opposition. Labor's vote has fallen during the campaign as One Nation's momentum has grown.

Preferred Premier: Peter Malinauskas (Labor) 56%, Ashton Hurn (Liberal) 21%.

State direction: 44% believe SA is heading in the right direction, 36% wrong direction.

Sample: 1,242 South Australians. Effective sample: 836. Effective margin of error: ±3.4%.

DemosAU NSW State Polling Results - March 2026

2026-03-06T14:20:00.000Z

DemosAU poll conducted 24 February to 4 March 2026.

Primary vote: Labor 34%, Liberal/National Coalition 23%, One Nation 21%, Greens 15%, Other 7%.

Preferred Premier: Chris Minns (Labor) 48%, Kellie Sloane (Liberal) 24%, Don't Know 28%.

Sample: 1,032 people from NSW. Effective margin of error 3.6%.

DemosAU Federal Polling Results - March 2026

2026-03-03T00:00:00.000Z

DemosAU Federal MRP Model for January–March 2026, based on 8,424 respondents nationwide.

Primary vote (national): ALP 29%, One Nation 27%, LNP 21%, Greens 12%, Other 11%.

One Nation has risen to 27 per cent nationally — its highest recorded level — while the Coalition has collapsed to 21 per cent, well below its 2025 federal election result.

Seat projection (150 seats): Labor 83, One Nation 52, Coalition 9, Greens 1, Other 5.

The results reflect a wholesale reorganisation of the centre-right vote, with significant crossover of former Liberal voters to One Nation across all states and demographics.

Fieldwork: 13 January – 3 March 2026. Total sample: 8,424 respondents.

DemosAU QLD State Polling Results - February 2026

2026-02-23T18:14:00.000Z

The poll of 1,044 Queenslanders, conducted from 10 to 20 February 2026, shows the LNP leading on 34% (down 7.5% from last election), ahead of Labor on 28% (down 4.6%), One Nation on 21% (up 13%) and the Greens on 10% unchanged.

At a time when we are seeing the Federal Coalition poll below 20% nationwide due to the One Nation surge, the fact that the LNP is on 34% in One Nation home state is significant.

Labor poised for huge victory in South Australia as One Nation overtakes Liberals

2026-02-20T00:00:00.000Z

A new DemosAU/Ace Strategies South Australian voting intention poll shows Labor poised for a huge victory next month, while One Nation marginally leads over the Liberals on primary vote.

The poll, conducted between 31 January and 16 February, showed Labor with a primary vote of 43% (+3% swing since the election), One Nation on 19% (+16.4% swing), the Liberals on 18% (−17.7% swing), The Greens 12% and Other 8%.

Peter Malinauskas led comfortably in the preferred premier rankings, leading Ashton Hurn 56% to 22%.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the results showed the State Liberals in deep trouble.

"On these results, we will see Labor re-elected very easily, and the interesting contest will instead be whether the Liberals or One Nation reach second place. All of the Liberals' metro seats are at risk to Labor."

"Despite the peril the Liberals are in, these results vindicate the Liberals' decision to replace Vincent Tarzia with Ashton Hurn in that she is seen more positively by voters than her predecessor. However, Ms Hurn faces a perfect storm: she's facing off against a very popular Premier, being weighed down by a poor Liberal brand and has been hit by an incredible surge in support for One Nation."

Ace Strategies Managing Director Matt Neagle said the poll showed Mr Malinauskas dominating the political centre.

"The data shows a frustrated electorate, but not a reckless one. Many voters are prioritising stability over protest, and that dynamic is underpinning Labor's strong position."

"This poll confirms that the Liberals are struggling to reconnect with voters at the very moment they need to demonstrate readiness to govern. When only one in five voters believes you're prepared for government, the path back becomes extremely steep."

"One Nation overtaking the Liberals on primary vote would have been unthinkable a few years ago. It speaks to a deep disruption in the centre-right vote and a level of volatility that will reshape the campaign from here."

The poll of 1,070 voters was conducted between 31 January 2026 and 16 February 2026 with an effective margin of error of ±3.6%.

DemosAU TAS State Polling Results - February 2026

2026-02-16T19:30:00.000Z

The polling results represent a -4.9% swing for the Liberals, and -2.9% swing for Labor, with minor parties benefiting from a modest increase in support. Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff remains the preferred Premier on 43%, with Labor's Josh Willie trailing on 32%, and 25% of Tasmanians still not sure.

DemosAU WA State Polling Results - February 2026

2026-02-16T19:11:00.000Z

The primary vote includes Labor (36%), Liberal (21%), One Nation (17%), The Greens (13%), Nationals (4%), and Other (9%). The preferred Premier is Labor's Roger Cook on 43% (-4% since the last poll), compared to Liberal Basil Zempilas on 30% (-4% since the last poll). A significant 27% are undecided.

DemosAU SA State Polling Results - February 2026

2026-02-16T00:00:00.000Z

DemosAU and Ace Strategies SA State voting intention poll, conducted 31 January – 16 February 2026.

Primary vote: Labor 43%, One Nation 19%, Liberal 18%, Greens 12%, Other 8%.

For the first time, One Nation marginally leads the Liberal Party on primary vote, reflecting a significant disruption in the centre-right vote.

Preferred Premier: Peter Malinauskas (Labor) 56%, Ashton Hurn (Liberal) 22%.

Sample: 1,070 South Australians. Effective sample: 727. Effective margin of error: ±3.6%.

DemosAU VIC State Polling Results - February 2026

2026-02-13T18:46:00.000Z

On a two-party preferred basis, the Liberals National Coalition lead Labor 53% to 47% - an 8% swing from the last election.

Liberal leader Jess Wilson leads Premier Jacinta Allan as preferred premier 40% to 31%.

Into Gear: Defence Industrial Cooperation

2025-12-01T00:00:00.000Z

Analysis · Defence · Indo-Pacific

Into Gear

Defence Industrial Cooperation: Australia, Japan and the United States

AUKUS has set out an ambition unprecedented in Australian strategic history. Delivering on it demands an industrial transformation — in workforce, supply chain, and governance — that no government can achieve alone.

Guy Boekenstein Former Strategic Counsel, Ace Strategies · United States Studies Centre

December 2025

Three nations. One agenda. And a window of strategic opportunity that will not remain open indefinitely.

The announcement of AUKUS in September 2021 reordered Australia's strategic posture in ways that are still working through policy, industry, and politics. The architecture is now clearer: nuclear-powered submarines, advanced technology sharing, a deepening of the Australia–United States–United Kingdom relationship. And with Japan's integration into Pillar II, a fourth major democracy is adding its industrial weight to the partnership's potential.

But potential is not the same as capacity. And capacity, in the defence industrial context, cannot be conjured quickly.

The Challenge Before Us

Australia's submarine decision is arguably the most consequential defence procurement decision any Australian government has ever made — not just in dollar terms, but in the depth of strategic and industrial transformation it demands. The acquisition of three to five Virginia-class submarines from the United States, followed by the construction of the SSN-AUKUS class beginning in the late 2030s, requires a sovereign industrial base that does not yet fully exist.

This is not a criticism. It is a condition. And it is the condition this paper addresses.

The submarine program will succeed or fail in the shipyards, not the treaty halls.

The United States submarine industrial base — the most sophisticated in the world — is currently producing Virginia-class submarines at roughly 1.3 per year, against a stated requirement of 2.3. That gap reflects decades of post-Cold War under-investment in shipbuilding capacity. The UK's program faces its own pressures. Australia is, in many respects, starting from the beginning.

The question before policymakers in all three capitals is not whether AUKUS is worth pursuing — it plainly is — but what structural changes are required to give the program the industrial foundation it needs to succeed on its stated timelines.

What the Research Shows

This paper identifies three structural preconditions for success.

The first is workforce. Shipbuilding is not a skill set that can be scaled quickly. A submarine-quality workforce — capable of working with nuclear materials, complex systems, and the exacting tolerances that underwater warfare demands — is built over decades. The pipeline from apprenticeship through journeyman to master tradesperson is long. The pipeline from master tradesperson to institutional knowledge is longer still. Australia must begin immediately. Not planning to begin. Beginning.

The second is supply chain. The specialised materials, components, and systems that go into nuclear-powered submarines are not available off the shelf. They are produced by a small number of certified suppliers operating under tight quality and security controls. Building an Australian supply chain means developing domestic capacity in some areas, and establishing the treaty and technology-transfer frameworks that allow trusted partner inputs in others.

Workforce is the long pole in the tent. You cannot build submarines faster than you can train the people who build them.

The third is governance. Defence acquisition reform is not new to Australian politics. But AUKUS demands reform that is real and durable, not rhetorical. The administrative burden of existing export control frameworks — even between Five Eyes partners — introduces friction that the program cannot afford at scale. Streamlining those processes, while maintaining essential security protections, is a policy task that must be addressed at the head-of-government level.

The Indo-Pacific strategic environment demands a coordinated industrial response across partner nations.

The Japan Dimension

Japan's deepening involvement in AUKUS Pillar II introduces a significant new variable — and a significant new opportunity. Japan brings to the partnership world-class industrial capacity in electronics, materials, and maritime systems. Its submarine program is among the most capable conventionally-powered programs in existence. And its changed constitutional and political environment has, over the past decade, made genuine defence industrial cooperation increasingly viable in ways that were not possible a generation ago.

The challenge is not industrial capacity. Japan has that. The challenge is building the institutional frameworks — legal, diplomatic, and industrial — that allow genuine technology sharing across three distinct legal and cultural ecosystems. That work is underway. It must accelerate.

Getting Into Gear

The paper's recommendations are specific. A dedicated AUKUS Industrial Workforce Fund, capitalised jointly by partner governments, to support apprenticeship pipelines, trade exchanges, and academic programs in submarine-relevant engineering and materials science. A streamlined technology-transfer framework that removes unnecessary friction between trusted partners while maintaining robust security protections. A joint industrial council — at CEO and ministerial level — meeting quarterly to track deliverables against the program's stated timelines.

Strategic partnerships are tested not in the signing ceremony, but in the years of implementation that follow. Australia, Japan, and the United States have demonstrated the strategic will to build something genuinely new in the Indo-Pacific. The task now is building the industrial machinery to match that ambition.

The window is open. The time to get into gear is now.

DemosAU WA State Polling Results - November 2025

2025-11-07T19:17:00.000Z

Labor was doing best with 35–54-year-olds (44%) compared to Liberals at 31%. For 18–34-year-olds, the Labor vote was at 36% and Liberals at 28%, and for those aged 55+, Labor polled at 42% and Liberals 40%.

State Labor is doing better than usual for a centre-left party with voters over 35 years of age, which is underpinning their strong polling lead.

With Labor attracting support from 1 out of 8 federal coalition voters, the Cook government is still attracting support from across the political spectrum even though the 2021 Covid election is now a distant memory.

This poll shows a significant rebound from 2021 lows for the Liberals.

Political Stalwart Joins Ace Strategies

2025-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Founder and Managing Director Matt Neagle said Kevin Naughton is one of the most accomplished political and media strategists in Australia.

Kevin is an award-winning journalist; he has led newsrooms and government offices throughout Australia and is a renowned strategist for political and industry leaders. For decades Kevin has navigated the intersection of government relations, media influence, and strategic communications.

Mr Naughton has worked as a broadcaster, Chief of Staff and Senior Writer at the Sunday Mail, Business Editor for InDaily, and led political offices for Liberal, Labor and Independent Leaders.

Building the Naval Supply Chain Workforce to Support AUKUS

2025-11-01T00:00:00.000Z

A publicly released report examining workforce requirements for the naval industrial base needed to deliver on Australia's AUKUS commitments.

Prepared by Skills Frontier for the U.S. Mission to Australia, this report provides a detailed analysis of workforce gaps, training pathways, and supply chain development strategies required to meet the ambitious timelines of the AUKUS submarine program.

The report is highly relevant to organisations operating in Australia's defence industrial base and anyone tracking the intersection of skills policy and national security.

DemosAU in Top Tier of Australian Pollsters

2025-11-01T00:00:00.000Z

DemosAU has emerged as a top-tier Australian polling organisation, with a track record of accuracy across state and federal elections that places it among the country's most reliable research firms.

This report examines DemosAU's polling methodology, track record, and the rigorous standards that underpin its research. As a member of the Australian Polling Council, DemosAU adheres to industry best-practice standards for transparency and methodology disclosure.

Ace Strategies partners with DemosAU to provide objective, timely, and reliable insights into voter sentiment — polling every state, every quarter.

DemosAU Federal Polling Results - November 2025

2025-11-01T00:00:00.000Z

DemosAU Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model of Australian federal voting intention, October/November 2025.

This comprehensive report projects seat-by-seat outcomes across all 150 House of Representatives electorates, using age, gender, education, income, state, region and 2025 Federal Election Vote as poststratification variables.

Primary vote (national): ALP 33%, LNP 24%, Greens 13%, One Nation 17%, Other 13%.

The model tracks the emerging disruption of the centre-right vote and the early rise of One Nation support nationally.

Future Workplaces That Build the Value of Living

2025-11-01T00:00:00.000Z

Opinion · Future Work · Community

Future Workplaces

That build the value of living

The pandemic did not create our relationship with work — but it exposed how poorly we had designed the environments around it. Ace Strategies Strategic Counsel Kevin Naughton examines what it means to build workplaces, and communities, where people genuinely want to be.

Kevin Naughton Strategic Counsel · Ace Strategies

November 2025

The pandemic did not create our relationship with work. But it revealed — with uncomfortable clarity — how poorly we had designed the environments around it.

For decades, workplace design has been driven primarily by efficiency metrics: square metres per head, lease cost per desk, proximity to arterial roads. These are rational considerations. But they are not the only ones that matter, and an extended period of remote work, hybrid arrangements and genuine public reflection on what work means to human beings has exposed the distance between what our built environments prioritise and what people actually need.

I have spent more than thirty years at the intersection of government policy, media and strategic communications. I have seen organisations build campaigns around communities they do not genuinely understand. I have seen governments design policies around workplaces that exist on paper more than in practice. And I have seen, in the post-pandemic reshaping of the Australian workforce, something that looks like a genuine inflection point — one that most organisations are not yet taking seriously enough.

The organisations that attract and retain talent in the decade ahead will not simply offer flexibility — they will offer belonging.

What We Built, and What It Cost

The standard post-war workplace was designed for oversight. Open floors, rows of desks, time clocks and dress codes were not accidents of culture — they were deliberate instruments of control. They reflected a theory of productivity rooted in visibility: if I can see you working, you are working.

That model was always a partial truth at best. What it missed was the extent to which belonging, purpose and trust drive the kind of creative and sustained effort that organisations actually need. An employee who is present but disengaged is a far more common and costly problem than an employee working from home who is genuinely invested in the outcome.

The pandemic made this visible because it stripped away the visibility. And what it revealed was that, for many organisations, the office had been performing community without actually delivering it.

Building the Value of Living

The phrase "value of living" is not a marketing concept. It describes something concrete: the degree to which a person's daily environment — physical, social, cultural — contributes to their sense of meaning, connection and wellbeing. It is the difference between a suburb that is merely serviced and one that is genuinely lived in. It is the difference between a workplace that functions and one that people choose.

For business and policy leaders, building that value requires moving beyond the language of amenities — the rooftop terrace, the yoga studio, the barista. These things are not harmful, but they are not the point. The point is whether the purpose of the organisation is legible in the way people spend their time there. Whether the physical environment reflects the values the organisation publicly claims. Whether leadership creates the conditions for genuine contribution rather than performed productivity.

Organisations that do this well share certain qualities. They are intentional about the relationship between their physical environments and their cultural ones. They invest in the kind of trust that allows people to work when and how they are most effective. They understand that the community around their workplace — the neighbourhood, the city, the country — is not a backdrop but a stakeholder.

A Role for Policy

None of this happens in a vacuum, and none of it is solely the responsibility of employers. Government has a critical role in creating the conditions — through urban planning, transport investment, housing policy and industrial relations frameworks — that allow communities to form around work, rather than being displaced by it.

The most productive cities in the world are not simply those with the most efficient infrastructure. They are places where the density of human connection — across industries, generations and cultures — generates ideas and energy that no individual organisation could create alone. That is a policy outcome as much as an economic one, and it requires policy leaders to think about workplace design not as a building code question but as a social investment.

For Australian organisations navigating the post-pandemic landscape, the opportunity is real. The workforce is asking, more directly than it has in a generation, what it means to work well and to live well. The organisations that answer that question with conviction — not with amenities, but with genuine purpose and community — will find themselves with an extraordinary competitive advantage.

The full insight explores these themes in depth, including practical frameworks for embedding community value into workplace culture, and examples of how business and policy leadership can converge around places where people genuinely want to be.

DemosAU VIC State Polling Results - October 2025

2025-10-31T18:53:00.000Z

The Liberal National Coalition lead Labor on a two-party preferred basis 51-49%, which represents a 6% swing since the last election. The LNPs Brad Battin was preferred Premier on 40%, compared to Jacinta Allan on 33% - with 28% of Victorians still undecided.

DemosAU TAS State Polling Results - October 2025

2025-10-27T19:37:00.000Z

46% of Tasmanians would choose the Liberal's Jeremy Rockliff as their Premier, compared to 34% who would prefer Labor's Josh Willies and 20% who don't know.

DemosAU NSW Polling Results - October 2025

2025-10-27T14:12:00.000Z

DemosAU NSW voting intention poll, conducted 17-22 October 2025.

Labor leads Liberal/National Coalition TPP 59-41%.

Primary vote: Labor 37%, Liberal/National Coalition 30%, Greens 13%, Other 20%.

Sample size: 1,016. Effective margin of error 4%.

DemosAU QLD State Polling Results - October 2025

2025-10-24T18:21:00.000Z

The Queensland state poll of 1,006 voters was conducted via internet panels from 13-20 October 2025. It puts the LNP primary vote at 37% (down 4.5% since the 2024 election), while Labor's primary has fallen to 29% (down 3.6% since the election).

The poll shows a 6% swing towards One Nation, with a primary vote of 14%, while The Greens were at 12% (a 2.1% swing) and Others were at 8%.

It's time – Liberals at the crossroad

2025-10-20T00:00:00.000Z

Op-Ed · SA Politics · Liberal Party

It's time

Liberals at the crossroad

It's a tale of two parties; one beset by a generation of infighting and the other with a "once in a generation" leader. The DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll shows 66 per cent of voters out of favour with the Liberal Party — and facing a wipeout in metropolitan SA.

Kevin Naughton Former journalist · ABC, Newscorp, Fairfax & InDaily

20 October 2025

It's a tale of two parties; one that is beset by a generation of infighting and the other with a "once in a generation" leader.

The DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll released today is a crushing blow to Liberal Leader Vincent Tarzia's faint hopes of taking his party to an unexpected victory in the March 2026 election.

It shows a party out of favour with 66 per cent of voters, out of touch with the new generation (a mere 13 per cent of 18–34 year olds) and facing a wipeout in the metropolitan area.

How did it come to this, when the party was gifted a landslide victory in 1993's "State Bank collapse" election which political scientist, the late Dr John Hepworth, described as "a free ticket to long term power"?

This Tuesday, 22nd October, marks 25 years since then-Liberal Premier John Olsen — a beneficiary of that free ticket — resigned after "misleading a judicial inquiry" handing the reins to Rob Kerin and a few months later, delivering government to Labor's Mike Rann.

Vincent Tarzia was 14.

In the years since that day in 2001, the Liberal Party has had seven leaders. Labor has had three in the last 30 years — all of them serving as Premier.

If the DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll is reflected at the March 2026 election, the South Australian Liberal Party will need to reflect on what it is, what it used to be and where to next.

Seven Liberal leaders in 25 years. Labor has had three — all of them serving as Premier.

A Party Built on Fault Lines

From its beginnings in 1932 and until the 1970s, the party was known as The Liberal Country League (LCL), a nod to its rural base and reliance on an electoral system that gave more weight to those voters. In one election the rural seat of Frome had 4,500 voters while metropolitan Enfield had 42,000.

It enjoyed some support from the urban middle class, but that faction split from the LCL in 1972 and formed The Liberal Movement before a tense re-marriage in 1976 under the banner of The Liberal Party.

The in-fighting continued, some based on influential families (the Evans/Chapman feud) and some based on the ideologies of the conservative and moderate factions.

It continues today with the conservatives taking the party to the right, alienating city-based voters on environmental issues — and in doing so losing every metropolitan seat in the Federal election earlier this year.

A party that was given a free ticket to long-term power now faces the question of which direction to walk.

An Impossible Task

Vincent Tarzia wasn't born when the first Liberal split happened in the 1970s and was just 15 when John Olsen blew the 1993 legacy giving Labor power for all but four years of the following 25.

Elected in 2014, Vincent was part of a young cohort of new Liberal MPs, almost all of whom have since lost their seats or resigned.

The leadership fell into his lap when one of those young MPs, David Speirs, resigned the leadership and eventually his seat and later pleaded guilty to charges of "supplying a controlled drug".

Speirs's leadership had been poor and colleagues were happy to background the media on his performance inside and outside the parliament.

By the time Tarzia took on the near-impossible task of uniting the Liberals, it was a mountain too high.

It's unlikely that he has the support of the conservative/rural factions and an improved performance at the polling booth is no guarantee that he would keep the Leader's job.

His party is broken. The decades of infighting are not resolved, and it bears little resemblance to the political powerhouse that underpinned the stable leadership of Sir Thomas Playford, Premier from 1938 to 1965.

His party is broken. The decades of infighting are not resolved.

Labor's Contrast

At the time of the DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll, Labor was tackling social media issues, industrial readjustment in the key regional cities of Whyalla and Port Pirie, nation-wide challenges in the health system and new environmental phenomena such as the coastal algal bloom.

Its Premier, Peter Malinauskas, mixes the tough business of government with the confidence-boosting strategies of seizing major events such as Gather Round, the V-8s return, LIV Golf and world-class opera extravaganzas.

As the poll shows under responses to the question of overall feelings, most voters say our State is heading in the right direction.

It's time for the Liberal Party to decide on what direction it wants to take. It might be time to formalise its fractured past and split into the two parts it tried to knit together.

The poll suggests the voters think that's already happened.

Soaring Labor vote pushes Libs to the edge in SA

2025-10-20T00:00:00.000Z

South Australian Labor is surging towards a landslide victory with the DemosAU/Ace Strategies Poll showing the party leading the Liberals 66–34 per cent on a two-party preferred (TPP) basis.

The poll shows an 11.47 per cent TPP swing to Labor since the March 2022 election, with the Liberals facing a wipeout of all its metropolitan seats.

The shift towards the Malinauskas-led ALP is based on an increase in its primary vote to 47 per cent, compared to the Liberal's 21 per cent — down 14.7 per cent since the last election.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the result was one of the most lopsided voting intention polls that we've seen in Australia.

"The vote for Labor is staggering but when you dig further beyond Malinauskas's personal popularity, there are several high-profile issues where voters rank the government poorly — including housing, cost of living, hospital ramping and the algal bloom."

Ace Strategies Managing Director Matt Neagle said the poll showed the Liberal brand failing to register with young voters.

"Among voters aged 18–34 years, the Liberal primary vote is in the cellar at 13 per cent, with The Greens attracting 29 per cent. That suggests a social media disconnect and lack of credibility on environmental issues."

The poll of 1,006 South Australians was conducted via internet panel from 6 to 15 October 2025. The effective margin of error was ±3.9%.

DemosAU SA State Polling Results - October 2025

2025-10-15T00:00:00.000Z

DemosAU and Ace Strategies SA State voting intention poll, conducted 6–15 October 2025.

Primary vote: Labor 47%, Liberal 21%, Greens 13%, Other 19%.

Two-party preferred: Labor 66%, Liberal 34% — an 11.47% TPP swing to Labor since the 2022 election.

Preferred Premier: Peter Malinauskas (Labor) 58%, Vincent Tarzia (Liberal) 19%.

Sample: 1,006 South Australians. Effective margin of error: ±3.9%.

Ace Strategies

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