Labor poised for huge victory in South Australia as One Nation overtakes Liberals

A new DemosAU/Ace Strategies South Australian voting intention poll shows Labor poised for a huge victory next month, while One Nation marginally leads over the Liberals on primary vote.

The poll, conducted between 31 January and 16 February, showed Labor with a primary vote of 43% (+3% swing since the election), One Nation on 19% (+16.4% swing), the Liberals on 18% (−17.7% swing), The Greens 12% and Other 8%.

Peter Malinauskas led comfortably in the preferred premier rankings, leading Ashton Hurn 56% to 22%.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the results showed the State Liberals in deep trouble.

"On these results, we will see Labor re-elected very easily, and the interesting contest will instead be whether the Liberals or One Nation reach second place. All of the Liberals' metro seats are at risk to Labor."

"Despite the peril the Liberals are in, these results vindicate the Liberals' decision to replace Vincent Tarzia with Ashton Hurn in that she is seen more positively by voters than her predecessor. However, Ms Hurn faces a perfect storm: she's facing off against a very popular Premier, being weighed down by a poor Liberal brand and has been hit by an incredible surge in support for One Nation."

Ace Strategies Managing Director Matt Neagle said the poll showed Mr Malinauskas dominating the political centre.

"The data shows a frustrated electorate, but not a reckless one. Many voters are prioritising stability over protest, and that dynamic is underpinning Labor's strong position."

"This poll confirms that the Liberals are struggling to reconnect with voters at the very moment they need to demonstrate readiness to govern. When only one in five voters believes you're prepared for government, the path back becomes extremely steep."

"One Nation overtaking the Liberals on primary vote would have been unthinkable a few years ago. It speaks to a deep disruption in the centre-right vote and a level of volatility that will reshape the campaign from here."

The poll of 1,070 voters was conducted between 31 January 2026 and 16 February 2026 with an effective margin of error of ±3.6%.