News & Insights

NSW State Politics Turned Upside Down

The DemosAU poll results would turn NSW state politics upside down. While NSW’s optional preferential system makes estimating seats difficult the poll results offer a few clues. DemosAU provides a three-region breakdown of Inner metro (Sydney east of Parramatta, south of the Hawkesbury and north of the Georges River), Outer Metro (rest of the Sydney Basin including urban Hunter/Illawarra) and the Regional and Rural NSW.

The poll results indicate three different elections. In Regional and Rural NSW, One Nation is ascendant on 37% taking votes from Liberals, Nationals and Independents. It is possible that One Nation could win all of the Coalition's 14 seats here, and the 6 independents. With a base of 20 seats, One Nation would strongly vie to become the major non-Labor party. Labor vote is steady but it should not take its 6 seats here for granted, including Cessnock and South Coast. In Inner Metropolitan Sydney, the poll indicates a significant swing to Labor of 6% on primaries which could be magnified further if One Nation voters fail to preference the L/NP in large numbers. Ryde, Drummoyne and Oatley would be easy Labor gains. Many of the Liberals 11 seats here would be in play for Labor and Independents. But it is in the rest of the Sydney Basin that One Nation’s impact may be most felt. The poll indicates that here Labor and One Nation are tied on 29% primaries with the Coalition in third on 21%. For Labor this represents a swing against it of 17%. Labor seats are also at risk from One Nation particularly on the urban fringes of Sydney, Newcastle and Wollongong. Labor seats at risk from One Nation include marginal Camden, and Penrith. As seen in South Australia, safer outer urban Labor seats should also be considered in play such as Campbelltown, Wyong and Port Stephens. Liberal held seats on Sydney’s urban fringe such as Badgerys Creek and the Hawkesbury are also plausible One Nation targets. These poll results indicate a battle for survival for both Coalition parties. The Nationals may be wiped out altogether, however the power of a good local MP to hold on against the odds cannot be underestimated. For the Liberals it is likely they would suffer enough urban losses that they would be relegated to the crossbench, if One Nation swept NSW outside of the Sydney Basin. For Labor, a parliamentary majority would be determined by whether inner metro gains from the Liberals can outweigh any losses to One Nation elsewhere. If the latter is much stronger than the former, a One Nation minority government with Liberal support cannot be ruled out. The stance of the parties on preference recommendations, the identity of the One Nation leader and the number of candidates they run, and the performance of Minns and Sloane will all impact how the state election race goes from here. However, Macquarie Street is not immune from One Nation turning everything upside down.

Coalition lead widens in Victoria as Labor slips

The state Liberal National Coalition has extended its lead ahead of the Victorian election, with Labor relegated to third place on primary votes by a rising One Nation vote. The DemosAU poll of 1,056 voters between 7 and 11 June 2026 shows the LNP leading on primary votes (30%), One Nation second on 23% and Labor on 21%. The Greens were steady on 15% and Others on 11%.

On a two party preferred basis, the Coalition leads Labor to 55-45. Labor recorded a -2% swing since DemosAU’s February 2026 poll, making it a -15.7% swing since the last election. One Nation is up 2% since February and the LNP 1%. Jess Wilson (Liberal) leads Jacinta Allan Labor 47-28 on preferred premier, (+7% for Wilson since our February poll). Asked whether people had a positive or negative view of the two leaders, Allan scored a net positive of -39% while Wilson’s net positive score was 10%. Cost of living was the top issue for Victorians, but compared to other states, the second biggest issue was crime and violence while housing was fourth on list. Government spending and debt was third. DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the poll indicated a change of government was likely at the November election if the current trajectory continued. “This is the first poll we’ve done that indicates that a Coalition majority is the most likely outcome if the election was held today, though a One Nation lower house balance of power is still possible. “Previous polls we’ve done since 2025 have shown a closer contest, with the possibility of Labor being able to contain seat losses to hold onto Government, or a hung parliament."

LNP extends lead, Labor struggles, One Nation rises

The Crisafulli LNP government has extended its lead over the Labor opposition, despite a continued rise in support for One Nation. The poll of 1,033 Queensland voters, conducted from 27 May to 3 June, shows the LNP primary vote steady at 34%, with Labor down 3 points to 25% and One Nation up 3 points to 24%. The Greens were steady on 10%, with Others steady on 7%.

On a two-party preferred basis, the LNP leads Labor 58-42, a 4.2% swing in the government’s direction since the 2024 election. Premier David Crisafulli holds a clear lead over Opposition Leader Steven Miles, with 47% selecting him as preferred premier, compared to 30% for Mr Miles. Meanwhile, 43% of Queenslanders believe the state is headed in the right direction, compared to 37% who believe it is headed in the wrong direction. Cost of living continues to lead as the top issue for Queenslanders, with 34% of people identifying it as one of their top three issues, followed by housing affordability on 25% and crime on 18%. Despite its relative popularity overall, voters rate the government negatively on each of these three issues, with 59% saying it is doing an unsatisfactory job on cost of living, compared to 18% saying it is doing a satisfactory job, 54% saying it is doing an unsatisfactory job on housing (19% satisfactory) and 42% rating its performance unsatisfactory on crime (34% satisfactory). It fares better on managing the Olympics (30% satisfactory, 24% unsatisfactory), health and hospitals (38% satisfactory, 35% unsatisfactory) and the state budget (34% satisfactory, 33% unsatisfactory). DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the poll showed the LNP in a very comfortable position while Labor was struggling against the rise of One Nation. “This poll and the general polling trend over the past two years indicates that the Crisafulli LNP Government has entrenched its electoral position in office."

Labor ahead in WA but two-party preferred gap closes

The Labor two-party preferred vote has slipped four percentage points since February 2026 but Roger Cook’s party remains ahead of the Liberals 53-47%. The poll of 1,015 Western Australian voters conducted between 29 May and 11 June 2026, shows Labor on a primary vote of 33% (-3% swing since a February 2026 poll), Liberals on 23% (2% swing), One Nation 18% (1% swing), Greens 12% (-1% swing), Others 11% (2% swing) and Nationals WA 3% ( -1% swing). Roger Cook leads Basil Zempilas on preferred premier 44-33%. Zempilas is up 3% since February compared to Cook up 1%. More voters believe the state is heading in the wrong direction (43%) compared to the right direction (36%). The wrong direction score was -3% since February 2026. The top issues for Western Australians were housing (34% - no change since February) and cost of living and inflation 33% (2% since February).

While Labor was still firmly ahead of the Liberals, there were some signs of concern for Labor. Labor’s primary vote has now dropped -8.4 percent since the 2025 March election according to our polling. The latest 2PP fall of four percent for Labor reflects a general slide against the government on many of the polling questions tested. The government should also be worried about health and hospitals as the net positive rating has gone down -5%, to -33% since our last poll. The personal ratings of both Roger Cook (net positive 6%) and Basil Zempilas (net positive -3%) had held steady. Compared to other states One Nation’s support has risen negligibly since February. The state vote for One Nation is below 20 percent in WA – the only mainland state where its vote is under 20%, according to our most recent polling. Compared to other states and federally, One Nation isn’t doing that well with vocational education / TAFE voters in WA. The biggest threat for the Liberals lies in over 55s switching their vote to One Nation, as was the current federal trend. Currently Basil Zempilas is holding off One Nation by doing well with the over 55s vote and retaining that support.

Malinauskas holds steady in South Australia

Peter Malinauskas’ Labor continues to hold a sizable lead in South Australia, bucking the current trend nationally and interstate by growing its primary vote, according to new DemosAU polling. The August poll of 1,012 South Australians shows Labor’s primary vote increasing 2 points since DemosAU’s June 2026 poll to 37%. One Nation was in second place with 25% (-1% since June), Liberals 17% (-1%), The Greens 13%, Others 8% (both no change).

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads One Nation 58-42%, with Labor up 2 points while One Nation is down 2 points. Driving the change in voting intention since June was a 4% swing from One Nation to Labor among over 55s and a similar swing among women (Labor up 4 %, One Nation down 3%). Mr Malinauskas led as preferred premier (46%) over Cory Bernardi (20%) and Ashton Hurn (17%) despite a -5% drop for the premier after the introduction of the One Nation SA leader into the Preferred Premier question. On personal ratings, Mr Malinauskas had a net positive score of 25% compared to a -2% for Hurn and -18% for Bernardi. Voters were split on whether the state is going in the right direction or wrong direction (39% right direction, 40% wrong direction). Cost of living and inflation was nominated as the biggest issue for SA voters (35%) and housing at 22%, according to analysis of an open-ended question.

The Liberal party remains on top in Tassie

The Liberal party remains on top in Tasmania with a 35% primary vote, compared to Labor's 23%. Although there is support outside of the major parties, with 17% declaring support for independents, 15% for The Greens, 4% for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party and another 6% for Others.

Since the last election, both Liberals (-4.9%) and Labor (-2.9%) have experienced swings away from voters who have opted for a broad range of minor party options. Despite a dip in popularity since the last election, the Liberals leader Jeremy Rockliff remains well ahead as preferred Premier on 43% compared to Labor's Josh Willies on 32%.

NT insights coming soon

DemosAU and Ace Strategies will publish Northern Territory insights here.

ACT insights coming soon

DemosAU and Ace Strategies will publish Australian Capital Territory insights here.