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Victorian election polls 2026: the third corner
The figures on this page were last updated on . The most recent Victorian state poll is Roy Morgan's, self-published and fielded 26–29 Oct 2026.
In November 2022 Victoria re-elected Labor by ten points. Today every house that polls the state has the Coalition ahead — by two points or by fourteen, averaging 54.3–45.7 — and One Nation, which did not contest the 2022 ballot, holds close to a quarter of the vote. Replacing Jacinta Allan with Ben Carroll as Premier in July gave Labor a better-liked leader and no better position against Jess Wilson. With the election on 28 November 2026, this is what thirty-eight polls from seven houses agree on, where they part company, and what it means on the night.
Ace Strategies publishes DemosAU's polling as its research and polling partner, and DemosAU polled for Ace Strategies in October 2025 and for Premier National in 2026. The method notes state how its waves are treated in the averages.
In brief
- The Coalition leads in every house. Across the fourteen polls fielded since the change of Premier on 28 July 2026, its two-party average is 54.3–45.7 — a swing of 9.3 points since 2022, against the 7.6 it needs for a majority on a uniform swing.
- One Nation is the third corner. It has averaged 22.6 per cent since the change, down from a peak of 27 in RedBridge / Accent in June, for a party that did not contest the Assembly in 2022.
- Labor has lost about 35 per cent of its 2022 vote (−12.9 points) and the change of Premier has not recovered it: within the same houses the Coalition moved +2.2 and Labor −0.8.
- The Opposition Leader is preferred premier in 20 of the 20 polls that asked — Battin in four, Wilson in sixteen — by a median 11 points.
- Seats are the open question. Nine of the 12 post-change two-party readings clear the majority line, yet both published seat models leave the Coalition on 39 of 88. Where One Nation preferences go is worth about three points of two-party vote, and no house has measured it.
You can move that flow yourself. The preference calculator leaves every poll's primary votes as published and lets you change where One Nation, Greens and other preferences go: at the post-change average, taking One Nation's flow from 75–25 to 60–40 moves the Coalition from 53.2 to 49.8. Model the result: adjust preference flows
Key numbers
- Post-change two-party average
- The Coalition leads 54.3–45.7 on two-party preferred across the fourteen polls fielded since the change of Premier on 28 July 2026.
- One Nation average
- One Nation has averaged 22.6 per cent of the primary vote since the change, ranging from 20 to 25 between houses.
- Swing the Coalition needs
- The Coalition needs a uniform swing of 7.6 points, a two-party share of 52.6–47.4, and the post-change average implies a swing of 9.3.
- Seats the Coalition needs
- The Coalition needs sixteen more seats than the 29 it holds to reach the majority of 45 in the 88-seat Assembly.
- Days to polling day
- As at 2 November 2026, the date of this page's last update, there are 26 days to the election on 28 November 2026, and the count is as at that date rather than the day you are reading it.
Latest poll
The most recent Victorian state voting-intention poll is Roy Morgan's, self-published and fielded 26–29 Oct 2026 from a sample of 3,610. It put the Coalition on 29.5 per cent of the primary vote, Labor on 22.5, One Nation on 22, the Greens on 12.5 and every other candidate on 13.5. Its two-party figure was 56–44 to the Coalition.
Across the fourteen polls fielded since the change of Premier on 28 July 2026, the Coalition's two-party average is 54.3–45.7, give or take 0.8 points of sampling error. This page is updated within a day of each new poll, and every change to a figure is listed in the update log.
On their usual rhythms Resolve Strategic and RedBridge / Accent each poll about monthly and last reported in October; Freshwater Strategy and DemosAU each poll about monthly and last reported in September, so those readings are due now, and Newspoll and Roy Morgan are next due in November. No date is promised by any of them, and a wave that lands earlier or later than its rhythm is added just the same.
Two years, three orders in the Victorian polls
In November 2022 Labor won 55–45 and 56 of 88 seats. Through 2025 the contest looked conventional: the Labor primary vote slid from 37 to the low thirties, the Coalition sat between 33 and 37, and by November the Coalition had edged ahead 51–49 in Newspoll and DemosAU alike. Then, in the first weeks of 2026, One Nation appeared in every house at once — 21 in DemosAU, 24 in RedBridge, 26.5 in Roy Morgan — and the two-party frame stopped describing the state. Every poll below is a point; the lines are the cross-house trend.
Thirty-eight polls from seven houses draw one shape
Each mark is one published poll, shaped by house; the lines are the cross-house trend.
Select any mark for the full reading, switch to the two-party view, select a house chip to hide or show that house anywhere in the story, and select a party to follow it to the end.
The One Nation line begins in February 2026 not because voters moved that month but because that is when the houses began offering the party in the Assembly question. DemosAU's October 2025 report is the tell: One Nation was not on its Assembly ballot and drew 11% in the Legislative Council question of the same survey. The trend is a smoother, not a forecast — a Gaussian kernel over fieldwork midpoints, every poll weighted equally.
38 polls · 7 houses · Trend: Gaussian kernel, σ = 35 days · Ace Strategies analysis
Labor has lost a third of its vote. Nobody has taken it whole.
Each party runs from its 2022 election result to its average across the fourteen polls fielded after 28 July, and the bar is the range of those fourteen polls. The election tick is where each party started.
Labor has moved −12.9, the Coalition −5.3, the Greens +2.2 and others −5.9, and One Nation stands at 22.6 for a party that did not contest. The bar is the disagreement between houses on the same fortnight: 7 points wide for the Coalition (26 to 33), 3.5 for Labor, 5.0 for One Nation. The houses agree about the third corner and disagree about the first.
2022: VEC · Post-change: RedBridge, Freshwater, Roy Morgan, DemosAU, Resolve, Newspoll · Unweighted mean
One Nation's ceiling in Victoria
The One Nation vote in Victoria peaked in June — 27 in the RedBridge / Accent MRP for Trades Hall, 25 in Freshwater — and has eased since in four of the six houses that polled both sides of the leadership change. The only real ballot it has faced, the Nepean by-election in May, gave it 24.5% from a standing start and did not win it the seat. Whether 22 to 23 is a floor or a way station is the question that decides the lower house.
One Nation peaked at a quarter of the state in June and has settled near a fifth
The chart follows the One Nation primary vote by house, with the cross-house trend and the Nepean by-election as the one point that was counted rather than asked.
Nepean is the only place the One Nation vote in Victoria has been counted at a ballot box. 24.5% in a safe Liberal seat with no Labor candidate is consistent with what the polls were saying that month — and with the Liberal holding the seat 63–37 after preferences against an independent, which is the pattern the pendulum panel comes back to. Resolve has now recorded One Nation at 23 in consecutive months, and the fourteen-poll average since the change of Premier is 22.6.
Houses as marked · Nepean: VEC, 2 May 2026 · Trend: Ace Strategies
The range is the message
Each mark shows how far a house sits from the average of every poll in the field within three weeks of its own, averaged over its 2026 waves. The two MRP models are left out, so YouGov has no mark. The buttons switch the party.
Newspoll runs One Nation three points below the field and the Coalition three above, and Resolve runs One Nation one below. Roy Morgan's SMS panel runs it two above and the Coalition two and a half below; DemosAU runs the Coalition two above and Labor one and a half below. None of this says who is right. It says that a reader following one house is following that house's method as much as the electorate.
Deviation from the ±21-day cross-house mean · Ace Strategies analysis
A change of premier, not of mind
Jacinta Allan resigned on 28 July and Ben Carroll was sworn in the same day. Six houses have polled since. Set against the same house's last poll under Allan, the Coalition rose in five of the six, by two to four points; Labor rose in three and fell in three; One Nation fell in four. Of the five houses that publish a two-party figure, three moved further to the Coalition, one held, and one moved a single point to Labor. The Premier changed. The direction of travel did not.
The Coalition gained more from the change of Labor leader than Labor did
Each row is one house, running from its last Allan-era wave to its first Carroll-era wave, party by party, with the two-party figure where the house publishes one. Comparing a house with itself removes the house effect, and the exact fieldwork dates are in each tooltip.
Averaged across the six houses, the Coalition moved +2.2, Labor −0.8 and One Nation −1.3. RedBridge is the sharpest case, with One Nation −5, the Coalition +4, and a two-party move from 54–46 to 57–43 in a poll whose fieldwork opened the day Carroll was sworn in. Newspoll, back in the field from 15 to 22 October, has One Nation up one, as Resolve does, with Labor down four and the Coalition's two-party lead out from 52–48 to 55–45.
Five houses · Last Allan-era wave v first Carroll-era wave · Ace Strategies analysis
The leader ladder and preferred premier
The leaders' ratings tell the story the primary votes only imply. Allan's net rating fell from −21 in August 2025 to −46 in her last Newspoll; Wilson debuted at +1 in November and has rated between +8 and +20 since the change of Premier; Carroll arrives somewhere between −28 and +8, depending on the house and its question. Jess Wilson, the Victorian Leader of the Opposition, is preferred premier in every poll that asks — by nine points in DemosAU, twelve in Freshwater's September wave, seven in the Resolve three-way read of October, which gives One Nation leader Warren Pickering fourteen per cent, and nine in RedBridge's October wave, which gives him eight. Every published rating for each of them, house by house and measure by measure, is on the Ben Carroll approval rating and Jess Wilson approval rating pages.
One line falls for a year. One climbs. The new one starts in the middle.
The lines follow the net rating of the Premier and the Opposition Leader over time, in each house's own measure, with marks by house. Allan's series ends on 28 July and Carroll's begins there.
Select any mark for the full reading, which names the house, its own measure and the split behind the net rating.
The houses ask different questions — satisfaction, favourability, likeability, job approval — and the tooltip names each. Roy Morgan's approval question gives Carroll +8 in the same week DemosAU's favourability question gives him −16. They measure different things and both are shown; neither is Allan's −46. Every reading is tabled, house by house, on the Ben Carroll and Jess Wilson pages.
Newspoll, Resolve, RedBridge, Freshwater, Roy Morgan, DemosAU · Each house's own measure
The lead changed hands once, in November 2025, and has not changed back
The chart plots the Opposition Leader's margin over the Premier in every poll that asks: Battin against Allan, then Wilson against Allan, then Wilson against Carroll.
Battin led by five to eight. Wilson led by nine, then nineteen, then twenty-four under Allan. Against Carroll the margin narrowed to nine in DemosAU, thirteen and then twelve in Freshwater, eight and then seven in Resolve's three-way question, nine in RedBridge's October wave and fourteen in Newspoll's — a better-regarded Premier who is still not the preferred one. Every poll that asked is tabled on the Jess Wilson page.
Every wave that asked · Resolve August and September are three-way questions
What Victoria is voting about
Ask Victorians the biggest issue facing the state and a third say the cost of living, then — unusually for an Australian electorate in 2026 — nearly as many say crime. Debt and housing share third. Two in three put the cost of living in their top three; more than half put crime there. And on the issue that dominates, Labor has lost ownership: fewer than one in five think it the party best able to deal with the cost of living, behind the Coalition and barely ahead of One Nation.
Two issues fill two thirds of the frame
Area is the share naming each issue first, unprompted. The figures are DemosAU's from June 2026, with the categories coded with the assistance of AI.
Crime at 29 is the Victorian signature — in the other states DemosAU polls, housing runs second. Debt and government spending at 11 is the frame the Suburban Rail Loop argument lives in; immigration, the supposed engine of the One Nation vote, is named first by four in a hundred.
DemosAU / Premier National · 7–11 Jun 2026 · n = 1,056 · Single response
The largest group trusts none of them
The bars show which party respondents judge best able to deal with cost-of-living issues, and how many put the two dominant issues in their top three. The study is Accent Research's for the University of Melbourne, fielded in August 2026 with 1,002 respondents.
In the same study almost half of 2022 Labor voters say they will vote differently in November: 13% have moved to One Nation and 11% to the Coalition, the two destinations it published. The remainder of that movement, and the share that trusts no party on prices, is a pool that no leader has yet claimed.
Accent Research / University of Melbourne · Aug 2026 · Remainder computed
More Victorians would prefer Labor to govern than will vote for it
The chart sets the same respondents' primary vote against the party they would prefer to see govern after the election, in the last poll before the change of premier. Beneath it sits the side RedBridge's respondents trusted more a week later.
Thirteen points of Victorians would rather Labor governed than the alternatives, and will not vote for it. That gap is the recovery Labor strategists are counting on and the one Carroll's ratings have not yet closed: asked the following week whom they trusted more, RedBridge's respondents chose Wilson and the Coalition over Carroll and Labor 47–31.
Newspoll, n = 1,035 · RedBridge / Accent, 28 Jul – 1 Aug, n = 1,014
Debt is the frame the September Resolve poll tested. Asked whether two commitments were worth going into debt for, respondents said the Suburban Rail Loop was not, by 49 to 27, and that Labor's pledge to publicly fund dental care was not, by 41 to 35. The rail loop is the project Labor is defending and the dental pledge is its own, so both readings land on the government's side of the ledger in the same week its primary vote held at 25. The figures are Resolve Strategic's for The Age, from the survey of 1,000 respondents fielded 6–12 September 2026.
Who is where in the Victorian electorate
Only DemosAU publishes Victorian crosstabs. Its September report breaks the vote down by age, gender, education, housing tenure, income, region and language, but this map is drawn from its June report, so it is dated: it was fielded under Allan, seven weeks before the change. It still shows where the three-cornered contest is being fought. One Nation leads among TAFE-qualified voters (31) and is within a point of the lead among the 35–54s and in regional Victoria. The Coalition strongholds are outright homeowners (41) and the over-55s (38). Labor leads only among renters (26); among the under-35s the Greens lead outright (33).
One Nation leads among the TAFE-qualified, the Coalition holds its strongholds, and Labor leads only among renters
Picking a party recolours every tile by that party's share in the cohort, with the leader of each cohort marked. The grid holds the seventeen published cohorts and the state.
The sample is 1,056, and subgroup margins of error are larger than the ±3.8 headline figure. The June report is the most recent cohort cut in this story, so the map predates the leadership change and is dated accordingly rather than updated by inference.
DemosAU / Premier National · 7–11 Jun 2026 · Pre-leadership-change
November 28: the seats and the swing
Turn the polls into seats and three things are true at once. The Coalition needs a 7.6% uniform swing for the sixteen seats that make a majority; the post-change two-party average (54–46) implies 9.3. RedBridge, Resolve and Newspoll clear the line, DemosAU clears it in August and not in September, Freshwater clears it in September and not in August, and Roy Morgan falls short of it in August and clears it in both of its October waves. Both published seat models nonetheless leave the Coalition on 39 — six short — because a fifth of the vote sitting with One Nation breaks the uniform swing: where Labor falls to third, the Liberal is fighting One Nation, not Labor. The lever shows how much of the answer rides on where One Nation preferences go.
Nine polls clear the majority line. Three do not. The average clears it by 1.7 points.
This is the Assembly pendulum, stood upright. Every two-party figure published since June sits on the right at the swing it implies from 2022's 55–45, coloured and shaped by house, the shaded band is the post-change average with its sampling error, and the dashed line is Antony Green's line for a Coalition majority. The fifty-two seats Labor won against the Coalition in 2022 sit on the left as rungs at their 2022 margins, and the counter above the chart rolls through them by name as the handle rises: a seat beneath the handle changes hands on a uniform swing and a seat above it holds.
Move the handle with the arrow keys, or select any poll to move the handle to it, and the readout states the outcome. The chips are the key to colour and shape and show or hide a house, selecting a mark gives the house and its fieldwork, and polls fielded before the change of Premier are faded.
A uniform swing is a ruler, not a forecast. At the post-change average, twenty-six of the fifty-two seats Labor won against the Coalition in 2022 sit beneath the handle on the way to 45 — if every seat swung alike. At Roy Morgan's 51–49, eight do. Ringwood is counted at Labor's 2022 margin, though its member now sits as an independent. The models below say the seats will not swing alike.
2022 margins: VEC · Majority line: Antony Green, Jul 2026 · Two-party figures as published
Where One Nation preferences go is worth more than where the One Nation primary vote lands
Start from any wave's primary votes and apply the preference flows recorded at the 2025 federal election in Victoria — Greens 90–10 to Labor, One Nation 75–25 to the Coalition, others 55–45 to the Coalition — which are the flows DemosAU adopts as its own two-party method, then move each flow. Everything on the right is a projection and is labelled as one.
At the post-change average, moving the One Nation flow from 75–25 to 60–40 takes the Coalition from 53.2 to 49.8 — from a majority swing to none — without a single primary vote changing. At the default flows the scenario gives 53.2 from the same primary votes, 1.1 below the 54.3 the houses published, because the respondent-allocated houses find preferences running more strongly to the Coalition than the 2025 federal flows. That is the whole election in one slider, and no house has measured it at seat level.
Projection · Flow defaults: 2025 federal election flows in Victoria, the method DemosAU uses · Primary votes as published
Every setting of the One Nation flow, at the post-change average
The table holds the scenario's two-party figure at the post-change average primary votes for each setting of the One Nation flow to the Coalition, with the Greens and others left at their defaults. The swing column is that figure less the Coalition's 45.0 of 2022, and the last column reads it against the 7.6 points a majority needs on a uniform swing.
| One Nation flow to the Coalition | Coalition scenario two-party | Uniform swing implied | Against the 7.6 line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60–40 | 49.8–50.2 | 4.8 | Short of 7.6 |
| 65–35 | 50.9–49.1 | 5.9 | Short of 7.6 |
| 70–30 | 52.1–47.9 | 7.1 | Short of 7.6 |
| 75–25 Default | 53.2–46.8 | 8.2 | Clears 7.6 |
| 80–20 | 54.3–45.7 | 9.3 | Clears 7.6 |
| 85–15 | 55.4–44.6 | 10.4 | Clears 7.6 |
The flow the houses have never measured moves the projection by 4.8 points of swing at 60–40 and 10.4 at 85–15, which is the difference between no majority and a comfortable one on the same primary votes. Every figure in the table is a projection from the average rather than a reading from a poll.
Projection · Post-change average primary votes · Greens and others at the 2025 federal flows · Ace Strategies analysis
Both models give the Coalition 39 seats and hand the decision to the crossbench
The hemicycle shows the chamber as it stands and each of the two published seat models, and the buttons switch between them. The Legislative Council projection sits beneath.
YouGov's MRP for Common Threads (June–July, n = 4,003) gives One Nation 17 seats; RedBridge/Accent's for Victorian Trades Hall (June, with its sample reported as 5,516 and as about 6,500) gives it 12 and Labor 35. Both were fielded before the change of premier and both drew criticism for their preference assumptions, in opposite directions. What they share is the shape: a Coalition short of 45 and a One Nation bloc large enough to decide who governs. In the Council, Roy Morgan projects the Coalition and One Nation to 21 of 40 between them.
Assembly: Parliament of Victoria; YouGov MRP for Common Threads; RedBridge / Accent MRP for Victorian Trades Hall · Council: Roy Morgan, 5–7 Aug 2026
The strategic read. Victoria is a three-cornered contest with a two-party outcome. The Coalition leads in every house and the Opposition Leader is preferred premier in every house; the post-change average clears the majority line by 1.7 points and both seat models leave it six seats short. The difference is One Nation: 20 to 25 per cent of the primary vote, concentrated in outer Melbourne and regional Victoria, in the seats where Labor falls to third and the Liberal's opponent on the final count is One Nation.
Three things will decide it between now and 28 November. The first is where One Nation preferences go, which the lever shows is worth three points of two-party vote. The second is whether Carroll converts a better rating into a better vote: ten weeks in, Resolve has Labor at 25 for a third month and Carroll at 22 as preferred premier, up from 20. The third is whether the houses converge or keep disagreeing by seven points on the Coalition, because in November only one of them will turn out to have been right.
Method and sources
- What this is
- This is a compilation of every published Victorian state voting-intention poll from seven houses, June 2025 to October 2026, with Ace Strategies' own analysis of what they agree and disagree on. Accent Research's attitudes study for the University of Melbourne is drawn on in Act V and is not a voting-intention wave, so it is not one of the seven.
- Disclosure
- Ace Strategies publishes DemosAU's polling as its research and polling partner, and DemosAU polled for Ace Strategies in October 2025 and for Premier National in 2026. Its waves enter this compilation on the same terms as every other house's, because every average on this page is an unweighted mean in which no house is weighted above another and none is left out.
- Figures
- Every figure is transcribed from the pollster's published release or report, and nothing is modelled or interpolated. Three DemosAU reports were read from the PDFs on this site, and the rest came from the pollster and from the poll write-ups at The Conversation and The Poll Bludger.
- Cross-house trend
- The trend is a Gaussian-kernel local average over fieldwork midpoints, with σ = 35 days and every poll weighted equally. It is a smoother, not a forecast.
- Post-change average
- The average is the unweighted mean of the fourteen polls fielded after 28 July 2026, and the two-party mean uses the twelve that published one.
- Uncertainty bands
- The bands show sampling error only, at ±1.96 standard errors of the weighted mean from each poll's published sample, with 1,000 assumed where none was published. House effects are larger, and they are shown in Act II rather than folded into the band.
- House effect
- The house effect is each house's reading minus the mean of every poll in the field within 21 days of it, averaged over that house's 2026 waves. The two MRP models are left out of it on both sides, because a modelled statewide figure is not a house's poll reading.
- Scenario 2PP
- The scenario starts from any wave's primary votes and applies the preference flows recorded at the 2025 federal election in Victoria as its defaults, with Greens 90–10 to Labor, One Nation 75–25 to the Coalition and others 55–45 to the Coalition, each adjustable. Those are the flows DemosAU adopts as its own two-party method. It is a projection, and it is labelled as one wherever it appears.
- Leader ratings
- Each house's own measure is used and named in every tooltip: satisfaction for Newspoll, favourability for RedBridge, DemosAU and Freshwater, likeability for Resolve, and job approval for Roy Morgan. They are plotted together and are not interchangeable.
- Not included
- The story includes no federal figure, no seat-level flow and no DemosAU crosstab later than June 2026.
- Standards
- DemosAU holds the Australian Polling Council Quality Mark, and each house's methodology statement is linked from its own release.
The houses
Seven houses published Victorian voting intention in the period, and the table below holds all seven. Each has its own mode, sample and two-party method, and the story never averages a house against itself. The marker beside each name is the one used for it in every time-series chart. How each house's final poll will be scored against the result, and the poll each would be scored on today, is on the poll accuracy page.
An eighth research house is drawn on elsewhere in the story without appearing in this table. Accent Research for the University of Melbourne fielded the attitudes study of August 2026, with 1,002 respondents, which Act V uses for the issues in Victorians' top three and for the party they judge best on the cost of living. It published no Victorian voting-intention wave, so it is not one of the seven houses this register compiles and no figure of its own enters any average on this page.
- Client
- The Australian
- Mode
- Online panel
- Waves
- 4
Two-party method
- Client
- The Age
- Mode
- Online panel
- Waves
- 9
Two-party method
- Client
- Financial Review; Self-published; Victorian Trades Hall
- Mode
- Online panel
- Waves
- 9
Two-party method
- Client
- Herald Sun
- Mode
- Online panel
- Waves
- 5
Two-party method
- Client
- Self-published
- Mode
- SMS
- Waves
- 5
Two-party method
- Client
- Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026)
- Mode
- Online panel
- Waves
- 5
Two-party method
- Client
- Common Threads
- Mode
- Online panel, MRP model
- Waves
- 1
Two-party method
| House | Client | Mode | Two-party method | Waves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newspoll | The Australian | Online panel | Previous-election preference flows | 4 |
| Resolve Strategic | The Age | Online panel | Respondent-allocated preferences, published for some waves only | 9 |
| RedBridge / Accent | Financial Review; Self-published; Victorian Trades Hall | Online panel | Respondent-allocated preferences | 9 |
| Freshwater Strategy | Herald Sun | Online panel | Respondent-allocated preferences | 5 |
| Roy Morgan | Self-published | SMS | Respondent-allocated, three pairings | 5 |
| DemosAU | Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) | Online panel | Adjusted 2022 flows; One Nation preferences as per the 2025 federal election in Victoria (Grn 90–10 ALP, ON 75–25 L/NP, Oth 55–45 L/NP) | 5 |
| YouGov MRP | Common Threads | Online panel, MRP model | Model estimate | 1 |
How the derived figures are built
The cross-house trend at each day on the axis is the weighted average of every poll's reading, with weights falling off as a Gaussian in the distance between that day and the poll's fieldwork midpoint, with σ = 35 days. It is a smoother: it never extends past the last poll and it makes no forecast.
The post-change average is the unweighted mean of the fourteen polls fielded after 28 July 2026. The two-party mean uses the twelve that published one, since Resolve publishes one for some waves only.
The uncertainty bands on the trend, and the first ± beside each headline average, show sampling error only: 1.96 standard errors of the weighted mean, taking each poll's published sample and assuming 1,000 where none was published. They do not include house effects, which Act II shows are larger, so they are a floor on the real uncertainty rather than a ceiling. The second figure beside the two-party average, ± 1.1 across houses, is 1.96 standard errors of the mean computed from the spread of the published readings themselves rather than from their samples, so it carries the disagreement between houses that the sampling band leaves out: the twelve post-change readings differ from one another by a standard deviation of 1.96 points, which is 0.57 of a point on a mean of twelve.
Sharing and exporting work from the page address: the party being followed, the houses shown, the chart mode and the position of the swing-o-meter's handle are written into it, so a copied link reopens the same view. Every panel offers a PNG of its chart or a CSV of its table, with the source and the credit in the footer.
The house effect takes, for each of a house's 2026 waves, its reading minus the mean of every poll whose fieldwork midpoint lies within 21 days of its own, itself included, and averages that across the house's waves. The two MRP models are left out on both sides: a modelled statewide figure is not a house's poll reading, so neither MRP is measured against the field or counted in the mean the others are measured against, and YouGov, whose only wave is its MRP, has no house effect. Newspoll, with two 2026 waves, rests on two comparisons where every other house has four or more.
The within-house shift sets each house's first wave with fieldwork on or after 28 July against its last wave with fieldwork before it. YouGov has no post-change wave and is not shown.
The scenario two-party figure adds to the Coalition primary vote the One Nation vote times its flow to the Coalition, the Greens vote times the share that does not flow to Labor, and the others vote times its flow to the Coalition, normalised to the five-party total. The defaults are the preference flows recorded at the 2025 federal election in Victoria, which DemosAU adopts as its own two-party method, and every output is a projection.
The uniform swing a poll implies is its Coalition two-party share minus 45.0, the Coalition's 2022 share. The 7.6% line is Antony Green's, from his July 2026 pendulum commentary. The seat margins are the 2022 two-party results the Victorian Electoral Commission published for all 88 districts, and the ladder draws every seat Labor won against the Coalition, so the handle counts the same seats as the election hub. A seat Labor won against the Greens in 2022, such as Northcote, is not on the ladder.
Question wording in the DemosAU reports
Voting intention was asked as "If a State Election for Victoria was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?", with the options Labor (with the Premier as Leader), Liberal / National Coalition (with Jess Wilson as Leader), One Nation, The Greens, Any Other Candidate and Don't Know, in randomised order with Don't Know last. Initial undecideds were asked which party they had a slight leaning towards, and remaining undecideds were excluded from the totals. In the October 2025 report One Nation was not offered in this question.
Preferred Premier was asked as "Who is your preferred Premier?", with the options the Premier, the Leader of the Opposition and Don't Know.
Opinion ratings were asked as "What is your opinion on the following people?", answered Positive, Neutral or Negative, with the people randomly listed and the answer order randomly flipped.
The biggest issue was asked as "In your opinion, what is the biggest issue facing Victoria today?", answered in the respondent's own words, with the categories generated with the assistance of AI.
Two-party preferred uses adjusted 2022 State Election flows, with One Nation preferences assigned as at the 2025 federal election in Victoria: Greens 90–10 to Labor, One Nation 75–25 to the Coalition and others 55–45 to the Coalition.
Other houses' wording is on their own releases, and where a house's measure differs, as with satisfaction, likeability or job approval, the tooltips say so.
Every wave, and where its figures came from
Three DemosAU reports were read in full from the PDFs held on this site. Every other wave was taken from the pollster's published release or from the poll write-ups at The Conversation and The Poll Bludger, and cross-checked wherever two of them quoted the same wave. Anything approximate, inferred or back-calculated is flagged beneath the wave it belongs to.
Self-published and fielded 19–30 Jun 2025 from a sample of 1,183.
- L/NP
- 38
- ALP
- 33
- ON
- —
- GRN
- 14
- OTH
- 15
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 48.5–51.5
Source and flags
Published for The Australian and fielded 23–30 Jun 2025, with the sample not published.
- L/NP
- 35
- ALP
- 35
- ON
- —
- GRN
- 12
- OTH
- 18
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 47–53
Source and flags
Published for The Age and fielded 1 Jul – 17 Aug 2025, with the sample not published.
- L/NP
- 33
- ALP
- 32
- ON
- —
- GRN
- 12
- OTH
- 23
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- —
Source and flags
Self-published and fielded 3–11 Sep 2025 from a sample of 2,005.
- L/NP
- 38
- ALP
- 31
- ON
- —
- GRN
- 13
- OTH
- 18
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 48–52
Source and flags
Published for The Age and fielded 1 Sep – 12 Oct 2025, with the sample not published.
- L/NP
- 33
- ALP
- 30
- ON
- —
- GRN
- 12
- OTH
- 25
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- —
Source and flags
Self-published and fielded 8–14 Oct 2025 from a sample of 1,501.
- L/NP
- 38
- ALP
- 32
- ON
- —
- GRN
- 13
- OTH
- 16
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 48–52
Source and flags
Published for Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) and fielded 21–27 Oct 2025 from a sample of 1,016.
- L/NP
- 37
- ALP
- 26
- ON
- —
- GRN
- 15
- OTH
- 22
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 51–49
Source and flags
Published for The Australian and fielded 18–20 Nov 2025 from a sample of 1,030.
- L/NP
- 36
- ALP
- 28
- ON
- —
- GRN
- 14
- OTH
- 22
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 51–49
Source and flags
Published for The Age and fielded 1 Nov – 7 Dec 2025, with the sample not published.
- L/NP
- —
- ALP
- —
- ON
- —
- GRN
- —
- OTH
- —
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 51–49
Source and flags
Published for Financial Review and fielded 24 Nov – 8 Dec 2025 from a sample of 1,021.
- L/NP
- 40
- ALP
- 31
- ON
- —
- GRN
- 12
- OTH
- 17
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 50–50
Source and flags
Published for The Age and fielded 15 Jan – 15 Feb 2026, with the sample not published.
- L/NP
- 30
- ALP
- 28
- ON
- 11
- GRN
- 12
- OTH
- 19
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- —
Source and flags
Published for Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) and fielded 1–10 Feb 2026 from a sample of 1,274.
- L/NP
- 29
- ALP
- 23
- ON
- 21
- GRN
- 15
- OTH
- 12
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 53–47
Source and flags
Self-published and fielded 13–16 Feb 2026 from a sample of 2,462.
- L/NP
- 21.5
- ALP
- 25.5
- ON
- 26.5
- GRN
- 13.5
- OTH
- 13
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 48–52
Source and flags
Published for Herald Sun and fielded 19–23 Feb 2026 from a sample of 1,030.
- L/NP
- 27
- ALP
- 28
- ON
- 23
- GRN
- 13
- OTH
- 9
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 50–50
Source and flags
Published for Financial Review and fielded 18–27 Feb 2026 from a sample of 2,165.
- L/NP
- 28
- ALP
- 25
- ON
- 24
- GRN
- 13
- OTH
- 10
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 52–48
Source and flags
Published for Herald Sun and fielded 19–23 Mar 2026 from a sample of 1,062.
- L/NP
- 30
- ALP
- 27
- ON
- 20
- GRN
- 14
- OTH
- 9
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 52–48
Source and flags
Published for The Age and fielded 12–18 Apr 2026 from a sample of 528.
- L/NP
- 27
- ALP
- 26
- ON
- 23
- GRN
- 11
- OTH
- 13
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- —
Source and flags
Self-published and fielded 22–24 Apr 2026 from a sample of 1,707.
- L/NP
- 24
- ALP
- 25.5
- ON
- 24.5
- GRN
- 13.5
- OTH
- 12.5
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 49–51
Source and flags
Published for Herald Sun and fielded 5–8 Jun 2026 from a sample of 1,034.
- L/NP
- 27
- ALP
- 23
- ON
- 25
- GRN
- 14
- OTH
- 11
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 53–47
Source and flags
Published for Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) and fielded 7–11 Jun 2026 from a sample of 1,056.
- L/NP
- 30
- ALP
- 21
- ON
- 23
- GRN
- 15
- OTH
- 11
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 55–45
Source and flags
Published for Common Threads and fielded 16 Jun – 10 Jul 2026 from a sample of 4,003.
- L/NP
- 26
- ALP
- 23
- ON
- 24
- GRN
- 13
- OTH
- 14
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 53.8–46.2
Source and flags
Published for Victorian Trades Hall and fielded 17–28 Jun 2026 from a sample of 5,516.
- L/NP
- 26
- ALP
- 26
- ON
- 27
- GRN
- 13
- OTH
- 8
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 54–46
Source and flags
Published for The Age and fielded 6–12 Jul 2026 from a sample of 1,000.
- L/NP
- 27
- ALP
- 27
- ON
- 22
- GRN
- 12
- OTH
- 12
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- —
Source and flags
Published for The Australian and fielded 23–26 Jul 2026 from a sample of 1,035.
- L/NP
- 31
- ALP
- 28
- ON
- 19
- GRN
- 13
- OTH
- 9
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 52–48
Source and flags
Published for Financial Review and fielded 28 Jul – 1 Aug 2026 from a sample of 1,014.
- L/NP
- 30
- ALP
- 23
- ON
- 22
- GRN
- 14
- OTH
- 11
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 57–43
Source and flags
Published for Herald Sun and fielded 31 Jul – 3 Aug 2026 from a sample of 1,020.
- L/NP
- 30
- ALP
- 25
- ON
- 22
- GRN
- 14
- OTH
- 9
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 52–48
Source and flags
Self-published and fielded 5–7 Aug 2026 from a sample of 2,084.
- L/NP
- 26
- ALP
- 26
- ON
- 23.5
- GRN
- 12.5
- OTH
- 12
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 51–49
Source and flags
Published for Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) and fielded 6–11 Aug 2026 from a sample of 1,007.
- L/NP
- 32
- ALP
- 23
- ON
- 22
- GRN
- 13
- OTH
- 10
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 55–45
Source and flags
Published for The Age and fielded 9–15 Aug 2026 from a sample of 1,000.
- L/NP
- 27
- ALP
- 25
- ON
- 23
- GRN
- 12
- OTH
- 13
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 53–47
Source and flags
Published for Financial Review and fielded 1–14 Sep 2026 from a sample of 2,371.
- L/NP
- 29
- ALP
- 24
- ON
- 25
- GRN
- 15
- OTH
- 7
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 56–44
Source and flags
Published for The Age and fielded 6–12 Sep 2026 from a sample of 967.
- L/NP
- 28
- ALP
- 25
- ON
- 23
- GRN
- 12
- OTH
- 13
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- —
Source and flags
Published for Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) and fielded 10–20 Sep 2026 from a sample of 1,020.
- L/NP
- 30
- ALP
- 25
- ON
- 20
- GRN
- 14
- OTH
- 11
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 52–48
Source and flags
Published for Herald Sun and fielded 24–28 Sep 2026 from a sample of 1,030.
- L/NP
- 29
- ALP
- 24
- ON
- 22
- GRN
- 14
- OTH
- 11
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 53–47
Source and flags
Published for Financial Review and fielded 2–8 Oct 2026 from a sample of 1,008.
- L/NP
- 30
- ALP
- 24
- ON
- 24
- GRN
- 16
- OTH
- —
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 56–44
Source and flags
Published for The Age and fielded 6–10 Oct 2026 from a sample of 1,000.
- L/NP
- 28
- ALP
- 25
- ON
- 23
- GRN
- 15
- OTH
- —
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- —
Source and flags
Self-published and fielded 8–9 Oct 2026, with the sample not published.
- L/NP
- 26
- ALP
- 22.5
- ON
- 25
- GRN
- 14
- OTH
- 12.5
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 55–45
Source and flags
Published for The Australian and fielded 15–22 Oct 2026 from a sample of 1,017.
- L/NP
- 33
- ALP
- 24
- ON
- 20
- GRN
- 14
- OTH
- —
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 55–45
Source and flags
Self-published and fielded 26–29 Oct 2026 from a sample of 3,610.
- L/NP
- 29.5
- ALP
- 22.5
- ON
- 22
- GRN
- 12.5
- OTH
- 13.5
- 2PP L/NP–ALP
- 56–44
Source and flags
| House | Published for | Fieldwork | Sample | L/NP | ALP | ON | GRN | OTH | 2PP L/NP–ALP | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RedBridge / Accent | Self-published | 19–30 Jun 2025 | 1,183 | 38 | 33 | — | 14 | 15 | 48.5–51.5 | 1 |
| Newspoll | The Australian | 23–30 Jun 2025 | — | 35 | 35 | — | 12 | 18 | 47–53 | 2 |
| Resolve Strategic | The Age | 1 Jul – 17 Aug 2025 | — | 33 | 32 | — | 12 | 23 | — | 3 |
| RedBridge / Accent | Self-published | 3–11 Sep 2025 | 2,005 | 38 | 31 | — | 13 | 18 | 48–52 | 4 |
| Resolve Strategic | The Age | 1 Sep – 12 Oct 2025 | — | 33 | 30 | — | 12 | 25 | — | 5 |
| RedBridge / Accent | Self-published | 8–14 Oct 2025 | 1,501 | 38 | 32 | — | 13 | 16 | 48–52 | 6 |
| DemosAU | Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) | 21–27 Oct 2025 | 1,016 | 37 | 26 | — | 15 | 22 | 51–49 | 7 |
| Newspoll | The Australian | 18–20 Nov 2025 | 1,030 | 36 | 28 | — | 14 | 22 | 51–49 | 8 |
| Resolve Strategic | The Age | 1 Nov – 7 Dec 2025 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 51–49 | 9 |
| RedBridge / Accent | Financial Review | 24 Nov – 8 Dec 2025 | 1,021 | 40 | 31 | — | 12 | 17 | 50–50 | 10 |
| Resolve Strategic | The Age | 15 Jan – 15 Feb 2026 | — | 30 | 28 | 11 | 12 | 19 | — | 11 |
| DemosAU | Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) | 1–10 Feb 2026 | 1,274 | 29 | 23 | 21 | 15 | 12 | 53–47 | 12 |
| Roy Morgan | Self-published | 13–16 Feb 2026 | 2,462 | 21.5 | 25.5 | 26.5 | 13.5 | 13 | 48–52 | 13 |
| Freshwater Strategy | Herald Sun | 19–23 Feb 2026 | 1,030 | 27 | 28 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 50–50 | 14 |
| RedBridge / Accent | Financial Review | 18–27 Feb 2026 | 2,165 | 28 | 25 | 24 | 13 | 10 | 52–48 | 15 |
| Freshwater Strategy | Herald Sun | 19–23 Mar 2026 | 1,062 | 30 | 27 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 52–48 | 16 |
| Resolve Strategic | The Age | 12–18 Apr 2026 | 528 | 27 | 26 | 23 | 11 | 13 | — | 17 |
| Roy Morgan | Self-published | 22–24 Apr 2026 | 1,707 | 24 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 49–51 | 18 |
| Freshwater Strategy | Herald Sun | 5–8 Jun 2026 | 1,034 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 53–47 | 19 |
| DemosAU | Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) | 7–11 Jun 2026 | 1,056 | 30 | 21 | 23 | 15 | 11 | 55–45 | 20 |
| YouGov MRP MRP model | Common Threads | 16 Jun – 10 Jul 2026 | 4,003 | 26 | 23 | 24 | 13 | 14 | 53.8–46.2 | 21 |
| RedBridge / Accent MRP model | Victorian Trades Hall | 17–28 Jun 2026 | 5,516 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 13 | 8 | 54–46 | 22 |
| Resolve Strategic | The Age | 6–12 Jul 2026 | 1,000 | 27 | 27 | 22 | 12 | 12 | — | 23 |
| Newspoll | The Australian | 23–26 Jul 2026 | 1,035 | 31 | 28 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 52–48 | 24 |
| RedBridge / Accent | Financial Review | 28 Jul – 1 Aug 2026 | 1,014 | 30 | 23 | 22 | 14 | 11 | 57–43 | 25 |
| Freshwater Strategy | Herald Sun | 31 Jul – 3 Aug 2026 | 1,020 | 30 | 25 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 52–48 | 26 |
| Roy Morgan | Self-published | 5–7 Aug 2026 | 2,084 | 26 | 26 | 23.5 | 12.5 | 12 | 51–49 | 27 |
| DemosAU | Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) | 6–11 Aug 2026 | 1,007 | 32 | 23 | 22 | 13 | 10 | 55–45 | 28 |
| Resolve Strategic | The Age | 9–15 Aug 2026 | 1,000 | 27 | 25 | 23 | 12 | 13 | 53–47 | 29 |
| RedBridge / Accent | Financial Review | 1–14 Sep 2026 | 2,371 | 29 | 24 | 25 | 15 | 7 | 56–44 | 30 |
| Resolve Strategic | The Age | 6–12 Sep 2026 | 967 | 28 | 25 | 23 | 12 | 13 | — | 31 |
| DemosAU | Ace Strategies (Oct 2025); Premier National (2026) | 10–20 Sep 2026 | 1,020 | 30 | 25 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 52–48 | 32 |
| Freshwater Strategy | Herald Sun | 24–28 Sep 2026 | 1,030 | 29 | 24 | 22 | 14 | 11 | 53–47 | 33 |
| RedBridge / Accent | Financial Review | 2–8 Oct 2026 | 1,008 | 30 | 24 | 24 | 16 | — | 56–44 | 34 |
| Resolve Strategic | The Age | 6–10 Oct 2026 | 1,000 | 28 | 25 | 23 | 15 | — | — | 35 |
| Roy Morgan | Self-published | 8–9 Oct 2026 | — | 26 | 22.5 | 25 | 14 | 12.5 | 55–45 | 36 |
| Newspoll | The Australian | 15–22 Oct 2026 | 1,017 | 33 | 24 | 20 | 14 | — | 55–45 | 37 |
| Roy Morgan | Self-published | 26–29 Oct 2026 | 3,610 | 29.5 | 22.5 | 22 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 56–44 | 38 |
Sources and flags, wave by wave
- RedBridge / Accent, 19–30 Jun 2025. RedBridge Group; The Poll Bludger, 6 Jul 2025, for fieldwork and sample; primary votes confirmed against RedBridge's own back-series in its March 2026 report⚑ RedBridge's own back-series and the contemporaneous report agree on these primary votes; the figures this table showed before 13 September 2026 (Labor 32, Coalition 37, Greens 13, others 18) were a mis-transcription⚑ One Nation was not an option in this wave's question Back to this wave's figures
- Newspoll, 23–30 Jun 2025. The Australian; The Poll Bludger, 6 Jul 2025⚑ no sample size: the contemporaneous report records it as to be advised, and The Australian did not publish it afterwards⚑ One Nation was not reported separately Back to this wave's figures
- Resolve Strategic, 1 Jul – 17 Aug 2025. Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Poll Bludger, 21 Aug 2025⚑ two-month combined sample (July–August); window approximate⚑ Allan net −21 carried from the October report, which records it as steady⚑ One Nation not reported separately Back to this wave's figures
- RedBridge / Accent, 3–11 Sep 2025. RedBridge Group; The Poll Bludger, 18 Sep 2025, for fieldwork and sample; primary votes from RedBridge's own back-series in its March 2026 report⚑ primary votes are RedBridge's own, from the series table in its March 2026 report; the contemporaneous report has Labor a point higher at 32⚑ RedBridge's back-series labels this wave 30 Sep 2025, which is after the fieldwork the report of 18 September describes; the fieldwork dates here are the reported ones⚑ One Nation was not an option in this wave's question Back to this wave's figures
- Resolve Strategic, 1 Sep – 12 Oct 2025. Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Conversation (A. Beaumont); The Poll Bludger, 14 Oct 2025⚑ two-month combined sample (September–October), n > 1,000; window approximate⚑ One Nation not reported separately Back to this wave's figures
- RedBridge / Accent, 8–14 Oct 2025. RedBridge Group; The Poll Bludger, 14 Oct 2025, for fieldwork, sample and the two-party figure; primary votes from RedBridge's own back-series in its March 2026 report⚑ primary votes are RedBridge's own, from the series table in its March 2026 report; the contemporaneous report has the Coalition a point lower at 37⚑ One Nation was not an option in this wave's question; the back-series table's 1 per cent is a residual in a column it shares with later waves Back to this wave's figures
- DemosAU, 21–27 Oct 2025. DemosAU report, 21–27 October 2025 (PDF in this repository)⚑ One Nation not offered in the Assembly question; it drew 11% in the same report's Legislative Council question⚑ the site's news post gives Allan 33 on preferred premier; the report's own table reads 32 (Battin 40, don't know 28) Read the companion post Back to this wave's figures
- Newspoll, 18–20 Nov 2025. The Australian; The Poll Bludger, 22 Nov 2025⚑ fielded Tuesday to Thursday of the week Jess Wilson replaced Brad Battin (18 Nov)⚑ One Nation not reported separately Back to this wave's figures
- Resolve Strategic, 1 Nov – 7 Dec 2025. Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Poll Bludger, 10 Dec 2025⚑ primary votes withheld: secondary reporting of this wave was internally inconsistent⚑ two-month combined sample; window approximate Back to this wave's figures
- RedBridge / Accent, 24 Nov – 8 Dec 2025. RedBridge Group / Accent Research Victorian state poll for the Australian Financial Review, 9 December 2025⚑ One Nation was not an option in this wave's question⚑ effective sample 783 after rim weighting at 77 per cent efficiency; margin of error ±3.5⚑ ten per cent of the sample gave no vote intention in either the first question or the leaner and were excluded from the published figures⚑ the report also carries performance ratings — Jacinta Allan net −40, Jess Wilson net +3 — which ask how well each leader is performing rather than RedBridge's later favourability question, so they are not added to the leader series Back to this wave's figures
- Resolve Strategic, 15 Jan – 15 Feb 2026. Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Poll Bludger, 18 Feb 2026⚑ two-month combined sample (January–February); window approximate⚑ preferred premier carried from the April report, which records it as unchanged since February Back to this wave's figures
- DemosAU, 1–10 Feb 2026. DemosAU / Premier National report, 1–10 February 2026 (PDF in this repository)⚑ leader ratings back-calculated from the June report's change-since-February figures; the February report's rating charts are images Read the companion post Back to this wave's figures
- Roy Morgan, 13–16 Feb 2026. Roy Morgan, special SMS survey, published 24 Feb 2026 Back to this wave's figures
- Freshwater Strategy, 19–23 Feb 2026. Freshwater Strategy for the Herald Sun, published 4 Mar 2026; fieldwork dates and sample from Freshwater's own data tables Back to this wave's figures
- RedBridge / Accent, 18–27 Feb 2026. RedBridge Group / Accent Research for the Financial Review, Victorian public opinion snapshot, March 2026; The Conversation, early Mar 2026⚑ two-party figures are respondent-allocated, as RedBridge publishes them; the same report gives 51–49 to the Coalition on 2022 preference flows⚑ effective sample 1,741 after weighting (80 per cent efficiency); margin of error ±2.3 Back to this wave's figures
- Freshwater Strategy, 19–23 Mar 2026. Freshwater Strategy for the Herald Sun; The Poll Bludger, 24 Mar 2026⚑ preferred premier inferred from the June report, which gives the prior reading as 47–31 Back to this wave's figures
- Resolve Strategic, 12–18 Apr 2026. Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Poll Bludger, 22 Apr 2026⚑ single-month sample; the two-month March–April combination was published as Labor 27, Coalition 29, One Nation 21 Back to this wave's figures
- Roy Morgan, 22–24 Apr 2026. Roy Morgan, special SMS survey, published 28 Apr 2026⚑ Eastern Victoria Region: One Nation 36, Coalition 28; Coalition 50.5–49.5 over One Nation Back to this wave's figures
- Freshwater Strategy, 5–8 Jun 2026. Freshwater Strategy for the Herald Sun; The Conversation; The Poll Bludger, 8 Jun 2026 Back to this wave's figures
- DemosAU, 7–11 Jun 2026. DemosAU / Premier National report, 7–11 June 2026 (PDF in this repository) Read the companion post Back to this wave's figures
- YouGov MRP, 16 Jun – 10 Jul 2026. YouGov MRP for Common Threads; The Poll Bludger, 10 Aug 2026⚑ MRP model — statewide figures and median seat forecast as published Back to this wave's figures
- RedBridge / Accent, 17–28 Jun 2026. RedBridge Group / Accent Research MRP for Victorian Trades Hall, leaked to the Financial Review and the Herald Sun in July 2026; The Conversation; The Tally Room⚑ an MRP model commissioned by Victorian Trades Hall and leaked in July 2026, not a RedBridge poll for the Financial Review; its statewide figures and seat totals are model estimates⚑ the sample was reported as 5,516 by The Conversation and as about 6,500 by the Herald Sun; the pollster has not published the report⚑ the seat totals assume Coalition voters preference Labor ahead of One Nation, which its readers disputed Back to this wave's figures
- Resolve Strategic, 6–12 Jul 2026. Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Conversation; The Poll Bludger, 14 Jul 2026⚑ reported as fielded to 12 July; the week-long window is assumed Back to this wave's figures
- Newspoll, 23–26 Jul 2026. The Australian; The Conversation; The Poll Bludger, 28 Jul 2026⚑ the last poll of the Allan premiership — published the day she resigned Back to this wave's figures
- RedBridge / Accent, 28 Jul – 1 Aug 2026. RedBridge Group / Accent Research for the Financial Review, August 2026 report; The Conversation; The Poll Bludger, 4 Aug 2026⚑ fieldwork opened on the day Ben Carroll was sworn in⚑ the two-party figures are on a base of 934 respondents Back to this wave's figures
- Freshwater Strategy, 31 Jul – 3 Aug 2026. Freshwater Strategy for the Herald Sun; The Conversation; The Poll Bludger⚑ preferred premier attributed to this wave by question type — the report seen listed it beside the RedBridge favourability figures Back to this wave's figures
- Roy Morgan, 5–7 Aug 2026. Roy Morgan, special SMS survey, published 18 Aug 2026⚑ leader figures are job approval, not favourability⚑ fielded after Carroll's cabinet reshuffle (4 Aug) and One Nation's leadership announcement (3 Aug)⚑ a separate Roy Morgan release of 15 September 2026 polls the inner-Melbourne seats of Brunswick, Melbourne and Richmond: Greens 41, Labor 35, Liberal 14, One Nation 2, teal independent 1, other parties and independents 7, from 643 electors across the three seats combined and pooled over the twelve months to August 2026; no two-party figure is published and no result is given for any single seat Back to this wave's figures
- DemosAU, 6–11 Aug 2026. DemosAU / Premier National release, 6–11 August 2026, as reported by DemosAU and The Poll Bludger, 17 Aug 2026⚑ the August report PDF is not in this repository, so effective sample, margin of error and crosstabs are absent Back to this wave's figures
- Resolve Strategic, 9–15 Aug 2026. Resolve Strategic for The Age; The Conversation, late Aug 2026⚑ preferred premier asked three ways, with Warren Pickering offered⚑ the two-party figure is respondent-allocated and was published for this wave, although Resolve publishes none for most; it is taken from The Conversation's write-up, and the register held it as not published until 15 September 2026 Back to this wave's figures
- RedBridge / Accent, 1–14 Sep 2026. RedBridge Group / Accent Research for the Financial Review; The Poll Bludger, 16 Sep 2026⚑ both two-party figures are respondent-allocated, stated as such in the report⚑ the others figure is the residual on the four primary votes reported; the report seen does not give it separately⚑ the figures rest on one account, The Poll Bludger's of 16 September 2026, as The Conversation had not written the wave up by then Read the companion post Back to this wave's figures
- Resolve Strategic, 6–12 Sep 2026. Resolve Strategic for The Age, reported 14 Sep 2026; The Conversation (A. Beaumont), 15 Sep 2026; The Poll Bludger, 16 Sep 2026, for the sample and the undecided share⚑ the fieldwork is stated as 6–12 September, a seven-day window⚑ preferred premier was asked three ways, with Warren Pickering offered, and 44 per cent were undecided⚑ no two-party figure was published, and a figure carried forward from an earlier wave would be an assumption rather than a reading, so none is recorded⚑ no likeability figure is recorded for this wave: The Age reports Warren Pickering with a net-positive rating, but the reports seen give no number for him, Ben Carroll or Jess Wilson⚑ the same survey asked whether two commitments were worth going into debt for, and respondents said the Suburban Rail Loop was not, 49–27, and Labor's publicly funded dental pledge was not, 41–35⚑ Resolve is the first house to publish two waves since the change of Premier Read the companion post Back to this wave's figures
- DemosAU, 10–20 Sep 2026. DemosAU / Premier National release, 10-20 September 2026, as reported by DemosAU, 14 Oct 2026 and The Poll Bludger, 29 Sep 2026⚑ the three leader nets are published in DemosAU's release of 14 October 2026 and equal the positive-less-negative values held here⚑ DemosAU's full September report rates Ellen Sandell at 18 positive, 49 neutral and 33 negative, a net of −15, and the register does not chart her for this wave⚑ no preferred premier question is reported for this wave⚑ the figures rest on two accounts, DemosAU's own release of 14 October 2026 and The Poll Bludger's of 29 September 2026, and The Conversation's write-up has not been cross-checked against them⚑ the movements The Poll Bludger quotes against the August wave match the August wave in this register at every figure⚑ the 38-seat Coalition projection in the same Poll Bludger post is that author's own model, not DemosAU's, and is not a register figure⚑ the release gives an effective margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 per cent⚑ the release gives Legislative Council primary votes of Coalition 25, Labor 20, One Nation 19 and Greens 13, with other parties and independents not given; these are vote shares rather than seats, and the register records no council figures⚑ the release gives two-party figures by age, which are subsample readings rather than register figures: Labor leads 58–42 among 18–34s and the Coalition leads 60–40 among those 55 and over⚑ the release names the poll the DemosAU/PremierNational poll and quotes PremierNational Director Georgia de Mestre, and it does not name the Herald Sun, so the Herald Sun attribution the source line carried before the release is not confirmed by it⚑ DemosAU's full September report gives rim weighting on age by gender, education, personal income, housing tenure, language, region, 2025 federal vote and left–right self-identification, an effective sample of 572 after weighting and the full question wording, and it gives no response rate Read the companion post Back to this wave's figures
- Freshwater Strategy, 24–28 Sep 2026. Freshwater Strategy for the Herald Sun, reported 1 Oct 2026; Freshwater's own data tables, released 2 Oct 2026; The Poll Bludger, 1 Oct 2026⚑ preferred premier is Freshwater's two-way question between Wilson and Carroll; a second question that also offered Warren Pickering gave Wilson 37, Carroll 30 and Pickering 13, and is the reading The Poll Bludger reported⚑ the leader figures are favourability among all respondents, given to one decimal as Freshwater's tables publish them; 11 per cent had never heard of Carroll, 14 per cent of Wilson and 27 per cent of Pickering⚑ the same survey has the Coalition ahead of One Nation by 66–34, a pairing the register does not chart Back to this wave's figures
- RedBridge / Accent, 2–8 Oct 2026. RedBridge Group / Accent Research for the Financial Review; The Poll Bludger, 11 Oct 2026⚑ the primaries and both two-party figures rest on one account, The Poll Bludger's update of 11 October 2026: Accent Research had not posted its own October release by 12 October 2026⚑ the others figure is not published; the four primary votes reported sum to 94, leaving a residual of 6, which is named here rather than recorded⚑ the net leader figures are the published positive less the published negative; the neutral shares were 44 for Carroll and 47 for Wilson⚑ Warren Pickering has a preferred-premier figure but no favourability rating in this wave, and no Hanson rating is published⚑ the undecided share on preferred premier is not published⚑ the client is not named in the account seen; the Financial Review published the poll Back to this wave's figures
- Resolve Strategic, 6–10 Oct 2026. The Poll Bludger, 13 Oct 2026, for the primary votes, fieldwork dates, sample, the three-way preferred-premier figures and the undecided share. Resolve Strategic published no release of its own; The Age's report is the publication of record but falls outside the sourcing standard.⚑ no two-party figure was published for this wave, in either pairing⚑ the independents and others figures are not published; the four primary votes reported sum to 91, leaving a residual of 9, which is named here rather than recorded⚑ preferred premier was asked three ways, with Warren Pickering offered, and 35 per cent were undecided, down from 44 in the September wave⚑ no leader approval, likeability or net ratings were published for this wave⚑ no commissioning client is named; the poll is the regular monthly Resolve Strategic poll in The Age⚑ the fieldwork ran five days, against seven for the September wave Back to this wave's figures
- Roy Morgan, 8–9 Oct 2026. Roy Morgan, special SMS survey, as tabled in Roy Morgan's release of 30 Oct 2026 (Finding No. 10373)⚑ no release of its own for this wave has been found; the primary votes and the 55–45 two-party figure are the October 8–9 columns of the tables in Roy Morgan's release of 30 October 2026⚑ the sample is not published in that release⚑ the same release tables a three-party preferred result for this wave of Labor 44, Coalition 29 and One Nation 27, which the register does not chart⚑ no Labor-v-One-Nation two-party figure is published for this wave; the 30 October release gives only the change since it Back to this wave's figures
- Newspoll, 15–22 Oct 2026. The Australian; The Poll Bludger, 26 Oct 2026, for the primary votes, the two-party figure, the fieldwork dates, the sample, both leaders' ratings and the preferred-premier figures⚑ the others figure is not published in the account seen; the four primary votes reported sum to 91, leaving a residual of 9, which is named here rather than recorded⚑ the leader figures are favourable and unfavourable shares as The Poll Bludger reports them, and each net rating is the difference of the two published shares⚑ Newspoll's first Victorian wave since 23–26 July, and its first since the change of Premier; Ben Carroll's ratings are his first in this series⚑ no question on which party respondents would prefer to form government was reported for this wave, where the July wave carried one Back to this wave's figures
- Roy Morgan, 26–29 Oct 2026. Roy Morgan, special SMS survey, published 30 Oct 2026 (Finding No. 10373)⚑ the id carries a suffix because Roy Morgan fielded two Victorian waves in October 2026; rm-2610 is the 8–9 October wave⚑ the release gives the Coalition 74 and One Nation 29 in a Coalition-v-One-Nation pairing, which sums to 103 as published and is not recorded⚑ the release tables a three-party preferred result of Labor 43, Coalition 33 and One Nation 24, which the register does not chart⚑ the release splits the primary vote by Melbourne (Coalition 28, Labor 23.5, One Nation 20.5, Greens 14) and country Victoria (Coalition 33, One Nation 26, Labor 19, Greens 9.5)⚑ a separate Roy Morgan release of 27 October 2026 polls the four Eastern Victoria seats of Bass, Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham from 283 electors; it is a seat poll and is not a register wave Back to this wave's figures
The data dictionary defines every column of the CSV and every field of the JSON: what each one holds, in what unit, what values it may take, what an em dash or a null stands for, and how a wave that is a model estimate is marked.
<iframe src="https://acestrategies.au/embed/victoria-polls-primary/" width="100%" height="600" title="Victorian election 2026 polling: primary vote, by Ace Strategies" loading="lazy" style="border:0"></iframe>Questions people ask
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Update log
Every change to a figure on this page is listed here, newest first, and the date at the top of the page is the date of the newest entry. That date moves when a poll is added or a figure changes. It does not move when a source, a flag, a link or the wording changes, so it always shows when the numbers last changed.
- Roy Morgan's late-October SMS poll, fielded 26–29 October from a sample of 3,610, enters as the 38th wave with the Coalition on 29.5, Labor on 22.5, One Nation on 22, the Greens on 12.5 and the Coalition ahead 56–44, so the post-change two-party average moves from 54.1–45.9 across eleven readings to 54.3–45.7 across twelve and the implied swing from 9.1 points to 9.3.
- Roy Morgan's early-October SMS poll, fielded 8–9 October and tabled in Roy Morgan's release of 30 October, enters as the 37th wave with the Coalition on 26, One Nation on 25, Labor on 22.5, the Greens on 14 and the Coalition ahead 55–45, so the post-change two-party average moves from 54.0–46.0 across ten readings to 54.1–45.9 across eleven and the implied swing from 9.0 points to 9.1.
- Newspoll's October wave for The Australian, fielded 15–22 October from a sample of 1,017, enters as the 36th wave and Newspoll's first since the change of Premier, with the Coalition on 33, Labor on 24, One Nation on 20, the Greens on 14 and the Coalition ahead 55–45, so the post-change two-party average moves from 53.9–46.1 across nine readings to 54.0–46.0 across ten and the implied swing from 8.9 points to 9.0, while the Opposition Leader leads in 20 of the 20 polls that asked preferred premier and the median margin rises from 9 points to 10.5.
- The ladder in Act VII now counts the seats that change hands at a swing over all 88 Assembly districts, drawing every one of the 52 seats Labor won against the Coalition in 2022 at its 2022 margin, where it had drawn the 18 seats named in Antony Green's commentary, so the post-change average of 8.9 points now reaches 23 seats rather than 16, Roy Morgan's 51–49 reaches 8 rather than 7, and every count matches the election hub's.
- DemosAU's September wave records an others figure of 11 for the first time, published in DemosAU's own release of 14 October, which confirms every other figure the wave already carried and publishes its three leader net ratings directly. Read the companion post
- Resolve Strategic's October wave, fielded 6–10 October from a sample of 1,000, enters as the 35th wave with the Coalition on 28 for a second month, Labor on 25 for a third, the Greens up three to 15 and no two-party figure, so the post-change two-party average holds at 53.9–46.1 across nine readings, while the Opposition Leader leads in 19 of the 19 polls that asked preferred premier and the median margin falls from 11 points to 9.
- RedBridge Group's October wave, fielded 2–8 October from a sample of 1,008, enters as the 34th wave with the Coalition ahead 56–44 and the Greens at 16, lifting the post-change two-party average to 53.9–46.1 across nine readings and the implied swing to 8.9 points, while the Opposition Leader's median preferred-premier margin falls from 12 points to 11 across the 18 polls that asked.
- RedBridge / Accent's September wave no longer carries the statement that its 56–44 reading is the widest two-party margin in the register, because the same house's August wave, at 57–43, is wider; no figure changed. Read the companion post
- Freshwater Strategy's September wave for the Herald Sun, fielded 24–28 September 2026 from a sample of 1,030, was added as the thirty-third wave and the ninth since the change of Premier: Coalition 29, Labor 24, One Nation 22, Greens 14 and others 11, with the Coalition ahead of Labor 53–47 and Labor ahead of One Nation 55–45. It is Freshwater's first reading since the change to clear the majority line, where its August reading of 52–48 fell short. The post-change two-party average moves from 53.7–46.3 over seven readings to 53.6–46.4 over eight, its sampling error from ±1.1 to ±1.0 and its band across houses from ±1.7 to ±1.5; the swing it implies moves from 8.7 to 8.6 points, five of the eight post-change two-party readings now clear the line rather than four of seven, and fifteen named seats fall to the average swing rather than sixteen. The post-change primary averages move from Coalition 29.0, Labor 24.5, One Nation 22.6, Greens 13.3 and others 10.7 to 29.0, 24.4, 22.5, 13.4 and 10.8. Jess Wilson leads Ben Carroll 45–33 on Freshwater's two-way preferred-premier question, so the Opposition Leader is preferred in 17 of the 17 polls that asked, by a median of 12 points rather than 11, and the wave's favourability ratings, Carroll −7 and Wilson +19, are added to their pages.
- DemosAU's September wave, fielded 10 to 20 September from a sample of 1,020, cuts the Coalition's two-party lead to 52–48 from 55–45 in August and puts One Nation on 20 per cent, pulling down both the post-change two-party average the page quotes and its One Nation mean. Read the companion post
- The register compiles seven polling houses where the page had said eight, and every count on the page follows. Accent Research's attitudes study for the University of Melbourne published no Victorian voting-intention wave, so it is credited in the method section as the source of the Act V issues figures rather than counted among the houses whose polls are averaged: the hero chip, the opening line, the lede, the field chart's title and source line, the Dataset description and this method note now read seven houses where they read eight, and the houses table, which has always held seven rows, is unchanged. The method notes also carried the post-change counts from before RedBridge's September wave was added; they read seven polls and six two-party readings now rather than six and five, which is what the hero, the In brief list and the entries below have said since that wave landed. The publication entry of 8 September was corrected with them. No poll's figures, no average and no uncertainty band changed.
- The post-change two-party average carries a second band beside its sampling error. The sampling band is unchanged at ± 1.1 and still shows sampling error alone; the new figure, ± 1.9 across houses, is 1.96 standard errors of the mean taken from the spread of the six published readings, so it carries the disagreement between houses that the sampling band leaves out, from a standard deviation of 2.37 points across the six and 0.97 of a point on their mean. The preference-scenario panel also states the distance between the two-party figure the scenario builds from the post-change primary votes at the default flows, 53.2, and the 54.0 the houses themselves published, a gap of 0.8 points. The scenario's default flows are labelled as the 2025 federal election flows in Victoria, which DemosAU adopts as its own two-party method, where they had been labelled as DemosAU's method alone. No figure in the register changed, and no average moved.
- A sensitivity table sits below the preference scenario, giving the projected two-party share at the post-change average primary votes for each setting of the One Nation flow to the Coalition from 60–40 to 85–15, with the uniform swing each implies and whether it clears the 7.6 points a majority needs on a uniform swing. At the default of 75–25 it gives 53.2 and a swing of 8.2; at 60–40 it gives 49.8 and 4.8, and at 85–15 it gives 55.5 and 10.5, so three of the six settings clear the line and three fall short. The Greens and others hold their defaults throughout. Every figure in the table is a projection from the average rather than a reading from a poll, and the panel exports it as CSV. No figure in the register changed.
- The page takes its most recent wave, and the span it reports covering, from the date fieldwork closed rather than from the middle of it. RedBridge / Accent's September wave was in the field from 1 to 14 September and Resolve Strategic's from 6 to 12, so RedBridge's closed two days later while its midpoint falls two days earlier: the hero line and the Latest-reading block had named Resolve as the most recent poll, and the dataset's temporal coverage had ended on 12 September while the register held fieldwork to the 14th. Both now follow the closing date. The charts still order by fieldwork midpoint, which is the axis a time series needs. No figure in the register changed.
- RedBridge / Accent's wave for the Financial Review, fielded 1–14 September 2026 from a sample of 2,371, was added as the thirty-first wave and the seventh since the change of Premier: Coalition 29, One Nation 25, Labor 24, Greens 15 and others 7, with respondent-allocated two-party figures of 56–44 to the Coalition over Labor and 53–47 to Labor over One Nation. The post-change two-party average moves from 53.6–46.4 over five houses to 54.0–46.0 over six, its sampling error from ±1.3 to ±1.1, the swing it implies from 8.6 to 9.0 points and the margin by which that clears the majority line from 1.0 to 1.4; four of the six post-change two-party readings now clear the line rather than three of five, and seventeen named seats fall to the average swing rather than fifteen. The post-change primary averages move from Coalition 28.8, Labor 24.5, One Nation 22.6, Greens 12.9 and others 11.3 to 28.9, 24.4, 22.9, 13.2 and 10.7. Preferred premier is unchanged at 16 of the 16 polls that asked, by a median of 11 points. Read the companion post
- Resolve Strategic's September wave carries the sample its report gives, 967 rather than the 1,000 recorded when it was added, and the preferred-premier question's undecided share, 44 per cent, which was not in the reports seen at the time. No average, primary vote or uncertainty band changed. Read the companion post
- Resolve Strategic's August wave, fielded 9–15 August 2026, now carries the two-party figure it published, 53–47 to the Coalition by respondent preferences, which the register had held as not published. The post-change two-party average is taken over five houses rather than four and moves from 53.8–46.2 to 53.6–46.4, the swing it implies from 8.8 to 8.6 points, and three of the five post-change two-party readings clear the majority line rather than two of four. No primary vote, primary average, preferred-premier figure or seat model changed.
- Resolve Strategic's wave for The Age, fielded 6–12 September 2026 from a sample of 1,000, was added as the thirtieth wave and the sixth since the change of Premier: Coalition 28, Labor 25, One Nation 23, Greens 12, independents 8 and others 5, with no two-party figure published. The post-change primary averages moved from Coalition 29.0, Labor 24.4, One Nation 22.5, Greens 13.1 and others 11.0 to 28.8, 24.5, 22.6, 12.9 and 11.3; the two-party average, the within-house shift panel and both seat models are unchanged; and the Opposition Leader now leads on preferred premier in 16 of the 16 polls that asked, by a median of 11 points rather than 13. Read the companion post
- Two RedBridge / Accent waves the register had never held were added: 8–14 October 2025, a sample of 1,501, and 24 November to 8 December 2025, a sample of 1,021, the second from the pollster's own report. The register now holds 29 waves. Sample sizes and fieldwork dates for the June and September 2025 RedBridge waves were taken from the same contemporaneous reports the register already cited for them, and both waves are now complete. No post-change average or two-party figure moved.
- The house-effect panel now leaves the two MRP models out on both sides, because a modelled statewide figure is not a house's poll reading: YouGov, whose only wave is its MRP, has no mark, and RedBridge's marks rest on its two Financial Review waves. No figure in the register changed.
- RedBridge / Accent's June wave is one survey again: the figures the Financial Review reported are the Trades Hall MRP's own statewide estimates, published after the model was leaked in July, so the split made earlier today is reversed and the wave is marked as a model with both reported sample sizes flagged. RedBridge's June and September 2025 primary votes now follow its own published back-series, Roy Morgan's April wave gains its Greens, independent and others shares, and RedBridge's February and August waves gain a method note and a Labor-v-One Nation figure. No Coalition–Labor two-party figure or seat total changed.
- RedBridge / Accent's June wave was split into the two polls it had held as one: the Financial Review poll of 17–28 June keeps the vote shares, two-party figures and favourability readings, and the seat model now sits on its own wave as the MRP for Victorian Trades Hall, reported in July from roughly 6,500 respondents. No vote share, two-party figure or seat total changed.
- Two waves were corrected against the pollsters' own releases: Freshwater's February fieldwork is 19–23 February 2026 with a sample of 1,030, and Roy Morgan's April survey has a sample of 1,707. No vote share or two-party figure changed.
- The story was published with 27 waves from seven houses, covering fieldwork from 23 June 2025 to 15 August 2026. This entry read eight houses until 19 September 2026, when the count was corrected.
How this compilation was built
- Coverage
- 19 June 2025 – 29 October 2026
- Waves
- 38 polls of 528 to 5,516 respondents
- Jurisdiction
- Victoria
- Method
- Compilation of every published Victorian state voting-intention poll from seven houses (Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, RedBridge / Accent Research, Freshwater Strategy, Roy Morgan, DemosAU, YouGov MRP); figures transcribed from each pollster's published release, with the cross-house trend, averages and scenario computed from them and labelled as derived. Accent Research's attitudes study for the University of Melbourne is drawn on for the issues section and is not a voting-intention wave, so it is not one of the seven