South Australia Polling
State voting intention, wave by wave, through the March 2026 election and after.
Ace Strategies commissions South Australian state polling from DemosAU. The series runs from October 2025, through the 21 March 2026 state election, and continues after it. Every wave below links its own results page and its full report, and each carries the fieldwork window, sample and margin of error from its own methodology statement.
The waves
The state returns to its election vote
Labor 37%, One Nation 25%, Liberal 17%, Greens 13%, Other 8%. Labor leads 58–42 on two-party preferred, and no primary vote sits more than 2.6 points from where it finished at the 21 March election. Sample 1,012; effective sample 628; margin of error ±3.9%.
insights Read the data reportThe first wave after the election
Labor 35%, One Nation 26%, Liberal 18%, Greens 13%. Labor leads 56–44 on two-party preferred. One Nation's vote continues to climb after March. Sample 931; effective sample 632; margin of error ±3.9%.
article Read the resultsThe final pre-election wave
Labor 37%, One Nation 23%, Liberal 17%, Greens 11%, Other 12%. Fielded in the days before the 21 March election, with One Nation's rise putting the Liberals' position as official opposition in question. Sample 1,242; effective sample 836; margin of error ±3.4%.
article Read the results insights Read the briefingOne Nation overtakes the Liberals
Labor 43%, One Nation 19%, Liberal 18%, Greens 12%, Other 8%. Sample 1,070; effective sample 727; margin of error ±3.6%.
article Read the resultsThe opening wave
Labor 47%, Liberal 21%, Greens 13%, Other 19%, and Labor ahead 66–34 on two-party preferred — an 11.47% swing since 2022. Sample 1,006; margin of error ±3.9%. This report predates the published methodology statements and carries none, so its weighting procedure is not on the record.
article Read the resultsWhat the series shows
Across five waves the movement runs one way and then turns back. Labor's primary vote falls from 47% in October 2025 to 35% in June 2026 and recovers to 37% in August. One Nation, unmeasured as a separate line in the opening wave, reaches 19% by February, 23% by March and 26% by June — passing the Liberals in February and staying ahead of them since — and eases to 25% in August. The Liberal primary vote moves from 21% to 17% over the same period.
Labor's two-party-preferred lead narrows from 66–34 in October 2025 to 56–44 in June 2026 and widens again to 58–42 in August, which is where the state finished on 21 March. Peter Malinauskas remains the preferred premier in every wave that asked the question.
Analysis
- Back to the line — the August 2026 SA poll read as a data report, with a table beside every chart and the data downloadable.
- South Australia, March 2026 — the poll briefing: the final wave scored against the election result three days later.
- The Second Force — the June 2026 SA poll told as a scroll-driven data story.
- One Nation, part 2: the South Australian test — what happened when the surge met a ballot paper.
- Labor poised for huge victory as One Nation overtakes the Liberals.
- Soaring Labor vote pushes the Liberals to the edge.
How these polls are built
Each wave is an internet panel survey of South Australians aged 18 and over eligible to vote, rim weighted and reported against an effective sample rather than a raw one. The methodology page sets out sampling, weighting, undecided handling and two-party preferred in full, and the polling archive holds every wave including the federal series.