Intelligence Unit · Series IU-03

Poll Briefings

Each briefing takes one DemosAU wave and reads it: the primary vote against the last election, the cohorts carrying the movement, the measures behind a government's standing. Every one exists as a page and as a filed PDF.

Federal · Fieldwork 18–20 August 2026 · ACE-IU-2026-018

Federal, August 2026

One Nation has fallen to third for the first time this year, leaving Labor on 26%, the Coalition on 25% and One Nation on 24%. The fall is concentrated among women, and DemosAU's seat ranges put the Coalition on 32–50 and One Nation on 26–39, against 11–22 and 53–66 in July.

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New South Wales · Fieldwork 19–26 August 2026 · ACE-IU-2026-017

New South Wales, August 2026

Seven months from the election, Labor is steady on 32% and leads 57–43 after preferences. The Coalition is up five to 25% and back in second, and One Nation is down four to 23% from a record June reading.

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Western Australia · Fieldwork 6–25 August 2026 · ACE-IU-2026-016

Western Australia, August 2026

Released three days before the Secret Harbour by-election. Labor is steady on 33% and leads 54–46, while the Liberals have slipped to a tie with One Nation on 21% — a party that polled 4% at the 2025 election.

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Victoria · Fieldwork 6–11 August 2026 · ACE-IU-2026-015

Victoria, August 2026

The first wave since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan. The Coalition leads 55–45 after preferences, unchanged from June, and both major parties lifted two points taken from the minor parties rather than from each other.

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South Australia · Fieldwork 12–18 March 2026 · ACE-IU-2026-014

South Australia, March 2026

The final poll before the 21 March election, scored against the result three days later. Every party landed within 1.9 points of the final poll and One Nation within 0.1.

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What a briefing is, and what it is not

The polling is DemosAU's and so is the methodology. A briefing is Ace Strategies' reading of a published wave, written after the fact and filed under a document number so it can be cited. Each one names its pollster and its sponsor, and the method note on every page separates the two claims.

The pages carry the figures as text rather than as pictures of tables, so they can be searched, quoted and checked. The PDF is the same briefing in the form that goes into a meeting.

Related

  • The polling archive holds every wave, with the full data release for each.
  • Methodology sets out how each wave is built, weighted and modelled.
  • How to read a poll covers margin of error, preferences, seats and outliers.
  • DemosAU is the research and polling partner behind every wave in the series.