Labor vote falls during campaign but Malinauskas still on track for big victory

New polling released today shows the Malinauskas government easily on track for re-election, despite losing ground to One Nation during the election campaign period.

The DemosAU/Ace Strategies final pre-election poll of 1,242 South Australians shows Labor on a primary vote of 37% (−6% change since February poll), One Nation 23% (+4%), Liberal 17% (−1%), The Greens 11% (−1%) and Others 12% (+4%).

The surge in support for One Nation means the Liberals stay in third place and are at risk of being replaced as the official opposition.

Peter Malinauskas leads Ashton Hurn on preferred premier 56–21%. A total of 46% of South Australians believe the Malinauskas Labor Government deserves to be re-elected, compared to 28% who disagreed.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said while the campaign had dented Labor's lead, they were still on track for a big victory.

"The Labor vote has fallen throughout the campaign as One Nation's momentum has grown and numerous independents and minor parties have thrown their hat in the ring. Despite this there is an underlying positive sentiment towards Labor where more people believe the state is heading in the right direction."

"The big question on Saturday night will be how high One Nation can go and how strongly One Nation voters preference the Liberals or whether they put Labor second."

Ace Strategies Managing Director Matt Neagle said that despite the softening in Labor's primary vote, Peter Malinauskas retains a commanding lead as preferred premier.

"The decision to elevate Ashton Hurn hasn't delivered the honeymoon the Liberals needed. Her numbers are flat, and the party's primary vote remains deeply depressed."

"This poll shows the Liberals are defending on two fronts — Labor in the suburbs and One Nation in the regions. That's an incredibly difficult position for any Opposition."

The poll of 1,242 South Australian voters was conducted from 12 to 18 March 2026 with an effective margin of error of ±3.4%.