New South Wales, August 2026

01

The Coalition's five points came from One Nation

First preference across the March 2023 election and the three DemosAU polls of 2026.

Almost all the movement since June is between the Coalition and One Nation. The 57–43 two-party figure uses 2023 flows, under which 62% of One Nation ballots exhausted. DemosAU notes that a Coalition–One Nation preference swap on how-to-vote material could narrow that lead materially; optional preferential voting makes the two-party figure less settled here than in other states.

02

One Nation leads in the regions and trails everywhere else

One Nation primary vote by cohort, August poll. The statewide figure is 23%.

32% Regional NSW

It is first there, ahead of Labor on 23% and the Coalition on 22%.

29% Aged 55 and over, and school education

Both cohorts sit at 29%. Voters aged 18 to 34 sit at 12%.

24% Outer metro

That is down from 29% in June, while Labor is up to 32% from 29%.

11% Inner metro

This is its weakest region. Labor took 41% and the Coalition 30%.

44–26 Minns leads Sloane as preferred premier, with 30% undecided.

The Coalition's recovery is concentrated among women, who give it 27% against 22% among men, and among mortgage holders and metropolitan voters. Renters are the Coalition's weakest cohort at 14%, with One Nation on 27% in the same group. These are small subsamples and the cohort figures are indicative.

03

Two leaders in positive territory, a state in the wrong direction

Measures of the government's standing, August poll.

+15 Chris Minns, net rating

He recorded 37% positive and 22% negative. Sloane recorded +5, from 25% positive, 20% negative and 55% neutral.

49% State headed in the wrong direction

28% said the right direction and 23% did not know.

69% Unsatisfactory on cost of living

That is a net −58, down 3 since June. Housing is 60% unsatisfactory at a net −46. Cost of living is the top issue for 46% and housing for 20%.

55% Support the NSW gun buyback scheme

27% oppose it and 18% are unsure.

The government scores net positive on two of nine issues tested, public transport at +19 and education at +10, and net negative on the other seven. Every issue that moved since June moved against the government, energy most at −6. As in Western Australia, Labor's position rests on the premier's standing and a divided opposition rather than on issue performance.

04

August against June and the last election

Percentage points, first preferences, Legislative Assembly. Movements within the ±3.9% margin should be read as direction, not magnitude.

The June release published no two-party figure, which is what the em dashes in that row record. In the upper house the poll has Labor on 31, the Coalition on 25, One Nation on 24 and the Greens on 14, and DemosAU projects 7 Labor, 5 Coalition, 5 One Nation and 3 Greens of the 21 seats contested, with one in doubt.