Federal, August 2026

01

Three parties within two points

First preference at the May 2025 election and in the two most recent Capital Brief/DemosAU polls.

The Coalition took most of One Nation's five points and Others took the rest. No two-party figure was published for this wave.

02

The fall is among women

Views of Pauline Hanson and One Nation's vote by gender, June to August.

−10 One Nation primary among women

That is the movement in points since June. Among men it is −3.

26% Women positive on Hanson

The June figure was 39%.

52% Women negative on Hanson

The June figure was 37%. Her net rating among women went from +2 to −26 in two months.

−17 Hanson net rating, all voters

That is down 8 since July.

35–23–22 Preferred prime minister: Albanese, Taylor, Hanson. Hanson is down 4 and Taylor up 1.

DemosAU attributes the shift to the change in sentiment among women, and lists the period's events without weighting them: the Press Club debate, the Italy trip with Gina Rinehart, the UK tour and comments on domestic violence. The same pattern appears in the state polls. In New South Wales the movement from One Nation to the Coalition was also mainly among women. Subgroup figures carry wider margins than the topline.

03

A prime minister ahead of both rivals, and still net negative

Leadership measures, August poll.

−19 Anthony Albanese, net rating

He recorded 28% positive and 47% negative, up 4 since July.

43–32 Albanese against Hanson, head to head

Hanson is down 5 and Albanese up 1.

38–36 Albanese against Taylor, head to head

This is the closer contest. Taylor takes 23% as preferred prime minister in the three-way question.

Albanese leads both rivals while carrying a net negative rating, which says more about the alternatives than about the government. The Taylor match-up is within a poll's margin; the Hanson match-up is not.

04

DemosAU's seat ranges

Seats in the House of Representatives, from uniform swing applied to DemosAU's May to July MRP model across 20,000 simulations. Each bar is the published range, drawn end to end; it is not a point estimate and carries no most-likely figure.

In July the Coalition range was 11–22 seats and One Nation's was 53–66. Labor's range has barely moved.