Poll briefing · Ace Strategies

Queensland, June 2026

No party's first preference moved outside sampling error since February. Labor's 25 per cent and One Nation's 24 are one point apart, which establishes no order between them, and the LNP's two-party share rose two points to 58 regardless.

State: Queensland · PremierNational
Fieldwork: 27 May – 3 June 2026
Sample: n=1,033 · eff. 681 · ±3.8%
Election: 28 October 2028

LNP primary

34%

Unchanged since February, and 7.5 below its 2024 result.

Labor primary

25%

Its lowest in the series, and 7.6 below 2024.

One Nation

24%

Three times its 2024 result, and level with Labor.

Nothing moved, and the poll does not say Labor is second

A change between the February and June waves carries about ±5.3 points at 95 per cent, from effective samples of 702 and 681. The largest movement in the wave is three points.

Each bar is the 95 per cent interval on a party's June first preference, from the effective sample of 681, and the dot is the share itself.

LNP

34 30.4–37.6

Labor

25 21.7–28.3

One Nation

24 20.8–27.2

Greens

10 7.7–12.3

Others

7 5.1–8.9

Labor's interval runs from 21.7 to 28.3 and One Nation's from 20.8 to 27.2. They overlap across more than six points, and a within-poll gap of one point on this sample carries about ±5.3, so second place in Queensland is not something this wave decides. The LNP's position is different: its nine points over Labor and ten over One Nation both clear their intervals, so it leads on first preferences by a margin the poll can measure.

Against February the movements are Labor down three, One Nation up three, and the LNP, Greens and others unchanged. Every one of those sits inside ±5.3. Four months of Queensland politics produced a poll consistent with no change in any party's support, which is the finding: whatever happened between February and June did not move voting intention by an amount this instrument can detect. The next section is about what the two-party figure did with that non-movement.

A two-party figure that moves two points on a shift the poll cannot detect

One Nation gained three points, which is well inside sampling error. Seventy-four per cent of its preferences return to the LNP, so those three points are worth 2.2 of two-party preferred.

The preference flows DemosAU applied to the June 2026 Queensland primary votes, and the two-party preferred totals they produce.
Source	Primary	To LNP	To Labor
LNP	34	34.0	—
Labor	25	—	25.0
One Nation	24	17.8	6.2
Greens	10	1.9	8.1
Others	7	4.0	3.0
Total	100	57.7	42.3

The flow rates are DemosAU's: Greens 81 per cent to Labor, One Nation 74 per cent to the LNP, others 57 per cent to the LNP. The others rate was 56 in February. Each cell is rounded to one decimal place and the totals are struck on unrounded values. The reproduction gives 57.7 against a published 58.

The two-party series across this term reads 53.8 at the election, then 54, 56 and 58. That is a government improving steadily on the measure that decides seats. The primary-vote series underneath it reads 41.5, 37, 34, 34, which is a government that has lost 7.5 points and stopped losing. Both describe the same three polls. The gap between them is One Nation's rise from 8.0 to 24 and the 74 per cent of its preferences that come home.

The practical consequence is that Queensland's two-party figure is the more volatile of the two series, not the less. A One Nation movement of three points, which this poll cannot distinguish from noise, moves it by 2.2. A reader watching the two-party line for signs of change is watching a number whose sensitivity to an undetectable shift is roughly three-quarters of a point for every point One Nation moves, and whose dependence on the 2024 flow assumption grows with every wave One Nation gains. The same party rising in New South Wales strands the conservative side instead, because 62 per cent of its preferences exhaust there under optional preferential voting; ACE-IU-2026-025 works that case.

Energy improved sixteen points and cost of living did not move

Asked whether the Crisafulli government is doing a satisfactory job on each issue, respondents rated it better than February on five of the seven comparable issues and worse on two. The two issues they name most often as the state's biggest are the two it is rated worst on.

Each bar is the net rating on an issue, the satisfactory share less the unsatisfactory share, in points. The note gives the three underlying shares and the movement since February.

2032 Brisbane Olympics

30% satisfactory, 46% don't know, 24% unsatisfactory. The net is up 2 since February.

Health and hospitals

38% satisfactory, 27% don't know, 35% unsatisfactory. The net is up 6 and has crossed into positive territory.

Managing the state budget

34% satisfactory, 33% don't know, 33% unsatisfactory. The net is down 3.

Energy and electricity

−3

34% satisfactory, 29% don't know, 37% unsatisfactory. The net is up 16, the largest movement in any ratings battery in this batch. The three shares sum to 101 in the report.

Crime, including youth crime

−8

34% satisfactory, 24% don't know, 42% unsatisfactory. The net is down 2 and the don't-know share is again the lowest of the group.

Fuel prices and supply

−11

31% satisfactory, 28% don't know, 42% unsatisfactory. This issue was not asked in February, so it carries no movement.

Housing

−35

19% satisfactory, 27% don't know, 54% unsatisfactory. The net is up 3 from a very low base.

Cost of living

−41

18% satisfactory, 23% don't know, 59% unsatisfactory. The net is up 3 and remains the worst in the battery.

Energy moved from a net of 19 points negative in February to 3 negative in June. Nothing else in any ratings battery in this batch moves that far in one wave, and it is the clearest instance in the series of a government's standing on an issue changing while its vote does not. Health crossing from negative to positive is the second-largest movement at six points. Against those, cost of living and housing improved by three each and remain 41 and 35 points negative, which is the shape of the problem: the government is gaining ground on the issues voters are not deciding by.

Cost of living is named by 34 per cent of respondents as the state's biggest issue and housing by 25, and they are rated 41 and 35 points negative. Crime, which the government campaigned on, is named by 18 per cent and has fallen two points to a net of 8 negative. The arithmetic of attention has not improved for this government since October; what has improved is its position on energy, fuel and health, which 2 per cent or fewer name as the state's first concern.

One Nation takes a third of regional Queensland and the LNP takes half the over-55s

DemosAU publishes no cohort sample sizes for this wave. If the three-way splits each hold about a third of the effective sample of 681, a gap between two of them carries roughly ±8.4 points.

June 2026 Queensland first preferences by party within each demographic cohort, in per cent.
Cohort	LNP	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH
Queensland	34	25	24	10	7
Men	37	26	22	9	6
Women	32	23	27	11	7
Aged 18 to 34	16	29	24	22	9
Aged 35 to 54	31	23	30	10	6
Aged 55 and over	49	23	20	3	5
School education	30	23	28	11	8
TAFE education	36	21	29	8	6
University education	38	32	14	11	5
Own home outright	50	23	19	5	3
Mortgage holders	33	26	26	10	5
Renters	21	25	27	15	12
Income under $45k	32	21	29	10	8
Income $45k to $125k	36	28	19	11	6
Income over $125k	41	27	22	5	5
Brisbane	38	29	14	16	3
South-east Queensland	34	26	23	11	6
Regional Queensland	34	21	32	4	9
English only at home	36	22	25	10	7
Another language at home	19	45	21	12	3

Every row sums to 100 in the report. Cohort figures rest on subsamples and carry wider margins than the ±3.8% statewide topline.

Age remains the widest division. The LNP takes 49 per cent of the over-55s and 16 of the under-35s, a 33-point gap, and it has fallen six points in the younger group since February while holding the older one. One Nation takes 32 per cent of regional Queensland against 14 in Brisbane, an eighteen-point gap, and 30 per cent of voters aged 35 to 54, where it sits one point behind the LNP's 31 after leading by one in February. Neither gap establishes an order.

Language is the sharpest single contrast in the table and the one most easily missed. Labor takes 45 per cent of voters who speak a language other than English at home and 22 per cent of those who speak only English, a 23-point gap, while the LNP runs 19 and 36 the other way. Labor's statewide 25 is built from a strong position in a minority of the electorate and a weak one across the rest, and its 21 per cent in regional Queensland is the lowest figure it records in this wave, shared with the TAFE-qualified and the lowest income band.

Data notes

David Crisafulli led Steven Miles as preferred premier 47 to 30, with 23 per cent naming neither. He has gained four points since February and Miles has lost two, which widens the margin from eleven points to seventeen. Asked whether Queensland is heading in the right or the wrong direction, 43 per cent said right, 37 per cent wrong and 20 per cent did not know, within a point of February on all three.

Asked the biggest issue facing Queensland in an open-ended question, respondents named cost of living at 34 per cent, housing affordability at 25 and crime including youth crime at 18. Immigration followed at 4, then the economy, health and hospitals, fuel prices, infrastructure, climate change and the Olympic Games at 2 each, and unions, taxation, traffic congestion and corruption at 1 each. Miscellaneous answers took 11 and don't know 2. The categories were generated with the assistance of AI and sum to more than 100, so a single answer can fall into more than one of them.

Housing led cost of living as the named issue in October 2025 at 30 to 27. By June the order has reversed and widened, at 34 to 25.

Method

DemosAU/PremierNational Queensland Poll. Fieldwork 27 May to 3 June 2026, internet panels, Queenslanders 18+ eligible to vote, n=1,033, effective n=681, effective margin of error ±3.8%. Rim weighting on age by gender, education, personal income, residential tenure, language, region, 2024 state vote and left–right self-identification. State voting intention was the first substantive question after demographics. Initial undecided voters were asked a leaner question and the remainder were excluded from the totals. Two-party preferred uses 2024 state election flows at Greens 81–19 to Labor, One Nation 74–26 to the LNP and others 57–43 to the LNP, under Queensland's full preferential system in which no ballot exhausts. Polling and methodology are the work of DemosAU, a member of the Australian Polling Council, in association with PremierNational. Ace Strategies had no role in the poll; analysis and presentation are Ace Strategies' alone. Subgroup samples carry wider margins than the ±3.8% topline.

Use

Polling is by DemosAU and the sponsor is PremierNational. Material from this briefing may be reproduced in client and internal documents provided it credits acestrategies.au, the pollster and the sponsor. Not for resale.

Contact

Ace Strategies · info@acestrategies.au · acestrategies.au

Filing

File: ACE-IU-2026-029
Series: IU-03 · Poll briefings
State: QLD · Public release
Issued: October 2026

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