Poll briefing · Ace Strategies

Queensland, October 2025

One year into the term the LNP leads 54–46 after preferences, which is 0.2 points from its election result. Its primary vote has fallen 4.5 points in that time, Labor's has fallen 3.6, and One Nation's has risen 6.0.

State: Queensland · PremierNational
Fieldwork: 13–20 October 2025
Sample: n=1,006 · eff. 747 · ±3.6%
Election: 28 October 2028

LNP primary

37%

It is down 4.5 since the 2024 election it won.

Labor primary

29%

It is down 3.6, and has not recovered from the defeat.

One Nation

14%

It is up 6.0, taking nearly all of what the majors lost.

An unchanged two-party figure sitting on top of eight points of movement

The LNP's two-party share is 0.2 points from its October 2024 result. The primary votes underneath it have moved by 4.5, 3.6 and 6.0 points, and the arithmetic of compulsory preferences is why the top line did not follow.

Queensland first preferences at the October 2024 election and in the October 2025 DemosAU poll, with the change, in percentage points.
Party	Election, 2024	October 2025	Change
LNP	41.5	37	−4.5
Labor	32.6	29	−3.6
One Nation	8.0	14	+6.0
Greens	9.9	12	+2.1
Any other candidate	8.0	8	0
Two-party, LNP	53.8	54	+0.2

The poll's figures exclude 6 per cent of voters who were undecided after a leaner question. The changes are DemosAU's own, stated against its 2024 baselines. The two-party figure applies 2024 state election preference flows.

Queensland votes with full preferential voting, so every ballot that names a minor party is distributed and nothing exhausts. DemosAU's own flow rates, published with the February wave, send 74 per cent of One Nation preferences to the LNP and 81 per cent of Greens preferences to Labor. A government that sheds 4.5 points of primary vote to One Nation therefore gets most of them back at the second count, which is how a year of visible decline on the primary vote produces a two-party figure two-tenths of a point from where it started.

The consequence is that the two-party number is the wrong instrument for watching this term. It will stay near 54 while the LNP's own vote falls, and it did: by June 2026 the LNP's primary is 34 and its two-party share is 58, which is a four-point improvement on the measure that matters least and a seven-point deterioration on the one underneath. New South Wales shows the same party rising and the opposite effect, because optional preferential voting there exhausts 62 per cent of One Nation's preferences; ACE-IU-2026-025 sets out that arithmetic. The same national movement helps a conservative government in Queensland and strands one in New South Wales, and the difference is entirely in the voting system.

Thirty-one points of two-party vote separate the youngest voters from the oldest

DemosAU publishes no cohort sample sizes for this wave. If the three age groups each hold about a third of the effective sample of 747, a two-party gap between two of them carries roughly ±8.8 points, and gender halves about ±6.8.

October 2025 Queensland first preferences by party within each demographic cohort, with the LNP two-party preferred share and the undecided share, in per cent.
Cohort	LNP	ALP	ONP	GRN	OTH	LNP 2PP	Undec.
Queensland	37	29	14	12	8	54	6
Men	40	27	14	11	8	57	2
Women	33	30	14	14	9	51	9
Aged 18 to 34	17	37	15	27	4	36	8
Aged 35 to 54	33	30	16	12	9	52	5
Aged 55 and over	52	24	12	3	9	67	6
School education	38	28	12	11	11	55	10
TAFE education	37	26	22	9	6	58	6
University education	39	34	7	16	4	50	1
Own home outright	49	31	10	5	5	60	6
Mortgage holders	40	26	15	11	8	58	6
Renters	26	30	16	18	10	47	7
Income under $45k	40	28	13	10	9	57	8
Income $45k to $125k	34	29	15	14	8	52	6
Income over $125k	43	33	10	9	5	55	1
Brisbane	35	36	5	20	4	45	5
South-east Queensland	39	29	13	11	8	55	5
Regional Queensland	38	25	21	7	9	60	8

Every first-preference row sums to 100 in the report. The undecided column sits outside that total and is excluded from the party shares. Cohort figures rest on subsamples and carry wider margins than the ±3.6% statewide topline.

The LNP takes 17 per cent of voters under 35 and 52 per cent of those 55 and over, a 35-point gap, and the two-party figures that follow run from 36 to 67. Both clear their intervals several times over. The Greens' 27 against 3 across the same two groups is a 24-point gap and the mechanism for part of it: Queensland's youngest voters are not merely less LNP, they are distributed across three parties where the oldest are concentrated in one.

Brisbane is the only cohort in the table where Labor leads on both measures, at 36 to the LNP's 35 and 55–45 after preferences, and it is also where One Nation records its lowest figure anywhere in the wave at 5 per cent. Regional Queensland reverses both, at 21 per cent for One Nation and 60 per cent two-party for the LNP. Tenure runs the same way as age: outright owners give the LNP 49 per cent and renters 26, and renters are the only tenure group Labor leads.

Crime is the issue the government was elected on and the issue it is rated worst on among those voters notice

Asked whether the Crisafulli government is doing a good job on each issue, respondents put it in positive territory on three of eight. Crime has the highest good-job share in the battery and still nets negative, because it also has the lowest share with no view.

Each bar is the net rating on an issue, the good-job share less the bad-job share, in points. The note gives the three underlying shares.

2032 Brisbane Olympics

30% good job, 47% don't know, 23% bad job. Nearly half the sample has no view, the highest in the battery.

Education and schools

30% good job, 46% don't know, 24% bad job.

Managing the state budget

30% good job, 41% don't know, 29% bad job.

Crime, including youth crime

−2

37% good job, 24% don't know, 39% bad job. The good-job share is the highest of the eight and the don't-know share the lowest.

Health and hospitals

−3

30% good job, 37% don't know, 33% bad job.

Energy and electricity

−12

27% good job, 35% don't know, 39% bad job. The three shares sum to 101 in the report.

Housing

−36

17% good job, 30% don't know, 53% bad job. Housing is also the issue most often named as the state's biggest.

Cost of living

−38

16% good job, 30% don't know, 54% bad job. This is the worst rating in the battery.

The battery divides on attention rather than on approval. The three issues the government is rated positively on carry don't-know shares of 41 to 47 per cent, so their nets rest on fewer than six voters in ten. The two it is rated worst on carry don't-know shares of 30 per cent, and both are named by a quarter or more of respondents as the biggest issue facing the state. A positive rating from people who have not formed a view is worth less than a negative one from people who have.

Crime is the exception that tests the rule. It has the lowest don't-know share in the battery at 24 per cent, which is what an issue a government campaigned on should look like, and on that full attention it nets two points negative. The good-job share of 37 per cent is the highest any issue records; so is the bad-job share of 39. Queensland's voters have an opinion about this government's handling of crime and they are split almost exactly in half, which is a different and harder position than being unrated.

Where One Nation's fourteen points sit

The party's statewide 14 per cent is concentrated in cohorts that overlap: regional, TAFE-qualified and aged 35 to 54. It is close to absent in Brisbane and among the university-educated.

21–5 One Nation takes 21 per cent of regional Queensland and 5 per cent of Brisbane. The sixteen-point gap is the clearest geographic division in the wave.

The education cut runs the same way: 22 per cent of the TAFE-qualified against 7 per cent of the university-educated, a fifteen-point gap. Both of those clear the roughly ±8.4 points a gap between two cohorts of this size carries. The party's weakest age group is the oldest rather than the youngest, at 12 per cent among the over-55s against 15 and 16 in the two younger groups, which is unusual and sits inside its interval, so it is a reading rather than a finding.

What makes this distribution matter in Queensland rather than merely describe it is section 01. One Nation's vote is concentrated in exactly the regional seats where the LNP's margins are built, and under compulsory preferences three-quarters of it returns there. A party taking a fifth of the regional primary vote is not splitting the conservative vote in the way the raw figure suggests; it is rearranging which box that vote passes through on the way to the same destination. The cost to the LNP is not the seat, it is the primary vote it has to defend, and the two later waves in this series show that cost continuing to rise.

Data notes

David Crisafulli led Steven Miles as preferred premier 44 to 32, with 24 per cent naming neither. Asked whether Queensland is heading in the right or the wrong direction, 42 per cent said right, 38 per cent wrong and 20 per cent did not know. That net of four points positive rises to eight by February and holds at six in June, so state direction is the one measure in this term that has not moved against the government.

Asked the biggest issue facing Queensland in an open-ended question, respondents named a lack of affordable housing at 30 per cent, cost of living at 27 and crime including youth crime at 20. The health system followed at 6, immigration at 4, climate change and traffic congestion at 3 each, then the economy, energy costs and government debt at 2 each, and unemployment, infrastructure, bullying in schools, corruption, the Olympics and education at 1 each. Miscellaneous answers took 10. The categories sum to 115, so a single answer can fall into more than one of them and the figures are not shares of a whole.

Crime is named by a fifth of respondents here, which is the highest share it records in any wave of this batch. Housing leads cost of living as the named issue in Queensland and in Western Australia, and trails it in New South Wales and Victoria.

Method

DemosAU/PremierNational Queensland Poll. Fieldwork 13–20 October 2025, internet panels, Queensland voters 18+, n=1,006, effective n=747, effective margin of error ±3.6%. Rim weighting on age by gender, education, personal income, residential tenure, location, 2025 federal vote and left–right self-identification. State voting intention was the first substantive question after demographics. Initial undecided voters were asked a leaner question and the remainder were excluded from the totals. Two-party preferred uses 2024 state election preference flows under Queensland's full preferential system, in which no ballot exhausts. Polling and methodology are the work of DemosAU, a member of the Australian Polling Council, in association with PremierNational. Ace Strategies had no role in the poll; analysis and presentation are Ace Strategies' alone. Subgroup samples carry wider margins than the ±3.6% topline.

Use

Polling is by DemosAU and the sponsor is PremierNational. Material from this briefing may be reproduced in client and internal documents provided it credits acestrategies.au, the pollster and the sponsor. Not for resale.

Contact

Ace Strategies · info@acestrategies.au · acestrategies.au

Filing

File: ACE-IU-2026-027
Series: IU-03 · Poll briefings
State: QLD · Public release
Issued: October 2026

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