Poll briefing · Ace Strategies

South Australia, March 2026

The final DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll before the 21 March election, and the result three days later. Labor was returned, the non-Labor vote split in two, and One Nation finished second on primary vote in a state it did not contest in 2022.

State: South Australia
Fieldwork: 12–18 March 2026
Sample: n=1,242 · ±3.4%
Election: 21 March 2026

This briefing is also filed as a PDF for circulation and citation. ACE-IU-2026-014 · 4 pages · 104 KB

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Labor primary

37%

Final poll. Election result: 37.5%.

One Nation

23%

Second place. Election result: 22.9%.

Liberal

17%

Third place. Election result: 18.9%.

The campaign cost Labor six points

First preference across the February poll, the final poll and the election count.

February poll

Final poll, 12–18 Mar

Election result, 21 Mar

Labor One Nation Liberal Greens Others

First preference by party across the February poll, the final poll and the 21 March 2026 election result, in percentage points.
Party	February	Final poll	Result
Labor	43	37	37.5
One Nation	19	23	22.9
Liberal	18	17	18.9
Greens	12	11	10.4
Others	8	12	10.3

Labor's primary fell from 43 to 37 over the campaign, a 3-point swing against it on 2022. The Liberal vote fell too. The movement went to One Nation and to independents — an electorate now spread across five columns.

Trade-qualified, mortgaged, regional

One Nation primary vote by cohort, final poll.

39% Regional & rural SA: Small subsample; treat as indicative.
29% TAFE / apprenticeship: Strongest education cohort.
26% Mortgage holders: Ahead of its statewide 23%.
25% Aged 35–54: The middle of the electorate.

32–29 Malinauskas led Hurn as preferred premier among One Nation voters.

One Nation ran an open how-to-vote, and its voters held a benign view of the Premier. The Liberal seat count depended on recovering that vote in preferences; much of it stayed away.

The measures behind Labor's win

Measures of the government's standing, final poll.

49% Positive view of Malinauskas: The Premier's personal rating.
44% State headed in right direction: A plurality, mid-crisis issues notwithstanding.
46% Government deserves re-election: Asked directly, unprompted by party.
39% Labor's primary among over-55s

In the June Victorian poll, state Labor recorded 21% in the same age bracket. The SA government held cohorts its interstate counterparts have lost, which is the difference between a 3-point swing and a 15-point one.

The final poll against the election result

Every party landed within 1.9 points of the final poll; One Nation within 0.1. Percentage points, first preferences.

Final poll first preferences against the 21 March 2026 election result, by party, in percentage points.
Party	Final poll	Result	Difference
Labor	37.0	37.5	0.5
One Nation	23.0	22.9	0.1
Liberal	17.0	18.9	1.9
Greens	11.0	10.4	0.6
Others	12.0	10.3	1.7

Method

DemosAU / Ace Strategies SA Poll. Fieldwork 12–18 March 2026, internet panels, South Australians 18+, n=1,242, effective margin of error ±3.4%. Polling and methodology are the work of DemosAU, a member of the Australian Polling Council. Analysis and presentation are Ace Strategies' alone. Subgroup samples carry wider margins than the ±3.4% topline.

Use

These figures may be reproduced in client and internal documents with attribution to DemosAU / Ace Strategies. Not for resale.

Contact

Ace Strategies · info@acestrategies.au · acestrategies.au

Filing

File: ACE-IU-2026-014
Series: IU-03 · Poll briefings
State: SA · Public release
Issued: March 2026

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