Poll briefing · Ace Strategies
Victoria, August 2026
This is the first DemosAU/PremierNational poll since Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan. The Coalition leads 55–45 after preferences, unchanged from June. Both major parties lifted two points, taken from the minor parties rather than from each other.
This briefing is also filed as a PDF for circulation and citation. ACE-IU-2026-015 · 5 pages · 105 KB
Download the PDFCoalition primary
32%
Up 2 since June. Leads 55–45 two-party preferred.
Labor primary
23%
Up 2 under Carroll. 13.7 below the 2022 result.
One Nation
22%
Down 1. One point behind Labor for second.
Both majors up, minor parties down
First preference across the 2022 election and the three DemosAU polls of 2026.
The leadership change lifted Labor two points but left the two-party position where June had it, 45–55. The Coalition is 2.5 points below its 2022 primary and still ahead, because a fifth of the electorate now sits with One Nation, a party that did not register in 2022.
Where the Coalition vote sits
Coalition primary vote by cohort, August poll. The statewide figure is 32%.
- 43% Income $125k and above
- Labor took 19% in the same cohort.
- 39% Aged 55 and over
- Labor took 23% and One Nation 23%.
- 37% Women
- That runs against 28% among men.
- 35% Outer metro and mortgage holders
- Both cohorts sit at 35%. These are small subsamples and the figures are indicative.
43–34 Wilson leads Carroll as preferred premier. In June she led Allan 47–28.
The Coalition gain since June is concentrated among women, outer-metropolitan voters and mortgage holders. Labor's gain under Carroll is among men and voters with a TAFE qualification. The Greens hold 30% of voters under 35, ahead of every other party in that bracket.
One leader in positive territory
Net personal rating, positive minus negative, August poll. The axis is zero; bars run left for a net negative and right for a net positive.
Jess Wilson, Opposition Leader
She recorded 35% positive and 24% negative.
Ben Carroll, Premier
He recorded 21% positive and 37% negative. Allan recorded −39 in June.
Ellen Sandell, Greens Leader
She recorded 16% positive, 32% negative and 52% neutral.
Warren Pickering, One Nation Leader
He recorded 19% positive and 38% negative.
Asked the biggest issue facing Victoria, 31% named cost of living and 29% crime and violence. In every other state DemosAU polled in August, housing was the second issue; in Victoria it ranked fifth at 8%, behind economic performance and state debt.
August against June and the last election
Percentage points, first preferences. Movements within the ±4.1% margin should be read as direction, not magnitude.
| Party | Nov 2022 | June | August | vs June |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coalition | 34.5 | 30 | 32 | +2 |
| Labor | 36.6 | 21 | 23 | +2 |
| One Nation | — | 23 | 22 | −1 |
| Greens | 11.5 | 15 | 13 | −2 |
| Others | 17.0 | 11 | 10 | −1 |
| Two-party, Coalition | 45.0 | 55 | 55 | 0 |
One Nation did not contest the 2022 Victorian election, which is what the em dash in that row records.
Method
DemosAU/PremierNational Victoria Poll, released 15 August 2026. Fieldwork 6–11 August 2026, internet panels, Victorians 18+, n=1,007, effective n=559, effective margin of error ±4.1%. Two-party preferred uses 2022 election flows for the Greens and respondent-allocated flows for One Nation and Others. Polling and methodology are the work of DemosAU, a member of the Australian Polling Council, in association with PremierNational. Ace Strategies had no role in the poll; analysis and presentation are Ace Strategies' alone. Subgroup samples carry wider margins than the ±4.1% topline.
Use
Polling is by DemosAU and the sponsor is PremierNational. Material from this briefing may be reproduced in client and internal documents provided it credits acestrategies.au, the pollster and the sponsor. Not for resale.
Contact
Ace Strategies · info@acestrategies.au · acestrategies.au
Filing
- File
- ACE-IU-2026-015
- Series
- IU-03 · Poll briefings
- State
- VIC · Public release
- Issued
- September 2026
Every poll briefing The Victorian election tracker How these polls are built