Victoria, June 2026

01

Every change since February is inside sampling error, including the two-party move

A change between the February and June waves carries about ±5.3 points at 95 per cent, from effective samples of 716 and 654. The largest movement in the table is two points.

Each bar is the change in a party's first preference from February to June 2026, in points. The pale band is the ±5.3 points a change of that size carries.

The Coalition's two-party share moved from 53 to 55 and that movement is inside the interval as well. Four months of Victorian politics produced a poll that is consistent with no change in any party's support, which is itself the finding: whatever happened between February and June, it did not move voting intention by an amount this instrument can detect.

02

The poll does not establish that Labor is third

One Nation's 23 and Labor's 21 are two points apart. On an effective sample of 654 a within-poll gap of that size carries about ±5.1 points at 95 per cent, so the order of the two cannot be read from this wave.

Each bar is the 95 per cent interval on a party's June first preference, from the effective sample of 654, and the dot is the share itself.

One Nation's interval runs from 19.8 to 26.2 and Labor's from 17.9 to 24.1. They overlap across more than four points, which is why the two-point gap carries no order. The Coalition's position is different: its seven-point lead over One Nation and its nine-point lead over Labor are both outside the gap interval, so it is first on primary vote in this wave by a margin the poll can measure.

DemosAU's report presents Labor as relegated to third, and the article on this site repeated it. The statement a reader can rely on is narrower. Labor's 21 is its lowest reading in this series and is 15.7 points below its 2022 result, which is a large and measurable fall from the election. Whether it sits above or below One Nation in June is not something one poll of this size answers, and the September wave, which puts Labor on 25 and One Nation on 20, reverses the order without either party moving outside sampling error.

03

One Nation takes 31 per cent of TAFE-qualified voters and Labor takes 14

DemosAU publishes no cohort sample sizes. If the education, age, tenure and income groups each hold about a third of the effective sample of 654, a gap between two of them carries roughly ±7.5 to ±8.5 points, and gender halves carry about ±7.0.

Every row sums to 100 in the report. Cohort figures rest on subsamples and carry wider margins than the ±3.8% statewide topline.

The education split is the widest real division in the poll. One Nation takes 31 per cent of TAFE-qualified voters and 15 per cent of the university-educated, a gap of 16 points against an interval of about ±7.8. Labor runs the other way, 14 among the TAFE-qualified and 25 among the university-educated, a gap of 11 against about ±7.4. Labor's 14 is the lowest figure it records in any Victorian cohort in this series. Within the TAFE group One Nation's 31 and the Coalition's 27 are four points apart, which is inside the gap interval, so first place in that cohort is not established.

Two further gaps are outside subgroup error. The Greens take 33 per cent of voters under 35 and 7 per cent of those over 55, a 26-point gap against about ±7.1, and that 33 is the highest single-cohort figure any party records in the wave. The Coalition takes 41 per cent of outright owners and 17 of renters, a 24-point gap against about ±8.2. The six-point gap between men and women on the Coalition vote, 33 against 27, sits inside about ±7.0 and should not be read as a difference.

04

Wilson's preferred-premier lead is the only reading that moved

Her seven-point rise since February carries an interval of about ±5.2, which makes it the single movement in this wave outside sampling error.

47–28 Jess Wilson leads Jacinta Allan as preferred premier. In February she led 40–31, and in October 2025 Brad Battin led 40–32.

Allan's three-point fall to 28 is inside its interval of about ±4.8, so the widening of the margin from nine points to nineteen is carried by Wilson's rise rather than by the premier's decline. Her neutral share fell from 49 per cent in February to 46, which is the mechanism: voters who had no view in February formed a positive one by June. Allan's net rating of 39 points negative is the lowest in the series, and she was replaced as premier before the next wave.

05

June against February and the 2022 election

Percentage points, first preferences. No movement in the final column reaches the ±5.3 points a change between these waves carries.

One Nation has an em dash in the election column because it did not contest the lower house statewide in 2022. The election column is the result as the Victorian poll register records it. DemosAU's own report states One Nation's change since the election as +22.7 points, which implies a 2022 base of 0.3; the register declines to give the party a 2022 baseline for a contest it did not enter statewide, which is why this table does not carry that figure.