DemosAU Federal Polling Results - March 2026
Federal MRP model across 8,424 respondents. One Nation surges to 27% nationally. Seat projection: Labor 83, One Nation 52, Coalition 9. Fieldwork: Jan–Mar 2026.
· 3 March 2026
DemosAU Federal MRP Model for January–March 2026, based on 8,424 respondents nationwide.
Primary vote (national): ALP 29%, One Nation 27%, LNP 21%, Greens 12%, Other 11%.
One Nation has risen to 27 per cent nationally — its highest recorded level — while the Coalition has collapsed to 21 per cent, well below its 2025 federal election result.
Seat projection (150 seats): Labor 83, One Nation 52, Coalition 9, Greens 1, Other 5.
The results reflect a wholesale reorganisation of the centre-right vote, with significant crossover of former Liberal voters to One Nation across all states and demographics.
Fieldwork: 13 January – 3 March 2026. Total sample: 8,424 respondents.
How this poll was conducted
- Fieldwork
- 13 January – 3 March 2026
- Sample
- 8,424 respondents
- Population
- Australia
- Method
- Multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of Australians aged 18+ eligible to vote, from an internet panel sample of 8,484, post-stratified on age, gender, education, income, state, region and 2025 federal election vote. Seat estimates carry an approximate margin of error of ±5%; no effective sample size is reported for an MRP model.