New polling points to a hung Australian parliament

The poll shows Australia would be headed for a finely balanced hung parliament with both Labor and One Nation having strong claims to form government, if the results were reflected at an election, according to DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos.

The MRP projects results for all 150 individual federal seats and provides an overall seat projection with ranges for each party.

Based on a Monte-Carlo probability analysis of 20,000 simulations, it shows if a federal election was held now, Labor would win 60-72 seats, One Nation would win 53-66 seats, Coalition 11–22 seats (Liberal 11-20, Nationals 0-2), Greens 1-5 seats, and Others 3-7.

The MRP projects, based on a two-candidate preferred vote, the ‘notional’ leader in each seat and categorises those seats as either “firm” (strongly favoured to win), “lean” (moderate chance of winning) or “in doubt” (too close to call).

To win government a party needs to win a minimum 76 seats — more than half of the total 150 seats. Of this, 45 seats are classified as Inner Metro, 64 as Outer Metro, and 41 as Regional/Rural.

In regional / rural seats, One Nation leads on 41% primary vote, Liberals 20%, Labor 18%, Greens 9% and 12% Others. The MRP indicates that One Nation is leading in 39 of the 41 seats with a live possibility of a clean sweep of all 41 seats.

In inner metro seats, Labor leads on 31% primary vote, followed by Liberals 21%, The Greens 18%, One Nation 19% and Others 11%. Labor still retains a strong advantage under the MRP in these seats leading in 34 of the 45 seats.

In outer metro seats — the seats which are most likely to decide government — One Nation leads on 30% primary vote, Labor 28%, Liberals 21%, Greens 12% and Others 9%. The MRP model indicates Labor still retains 34 of the 64 Outer Metro seats however One Nation has made significant inroads leading in 21 seats.

“The most significant finding of the MRP is that One Nation is now leading across many Outer Metro seats in Brisbane and Perth and also a few in outer Sydney and Outer Melbourne,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“It is in these seats which One Nation needs to win to have a chance of forming at least a minority government.

The next hard test of these numbers at state level is Victoria's election on 28 November 2026. Every Victorian state poll ahead of it, from seven houses, is on the Victorian election polls 2026 tracker.