Bass

Bass covers 1,357.65 square kilometres around the eastern shore of Western Port and along the Bass Coast. Wonthaggi, Inverloch and Cape Paterson lie on the coast, Cowes and Newhaven on Phillip Island, Grantville and Corinella on the eastern shore of Western Port, Koo Wee Rup and Lang Lang in the swamp country to the north, and Tooradin, Blind Bight and Pearcedale on the northern shore. The north-western corner holds Devon Meadows, most of Cranbourne South and 90.9 per cent of the gazetted locality of Clyde, shared with Cranbourne.

Enrolment stood at 57,158 in September 2026, up 7,174, or 14.4 per cent, on the 49,984 electors at the close of rolls in 2022. The district adjoins Gippsland South to the east, Narracan to the north-east, Pakenham and Berwick to the north, Cranbourne to the north-west and Hastings to the west. At the 2021 Census its localities held 70,291 people on an area-weighted estimate, 21.8 per cent of them aged 65 and over, and 18.9 per cent of occupied dwellings were rented.

Jordan Crugnale has been the member for Bass since 24 November 2018, when she won the seat for Labor from Brian Paynter, who had held it for the Liberal Party since 2014. She has been an Acting Speaker of the Legislative Assembly since 9 February 2023 and a member of the Assembly's Environment and Planning Committee since 23 February 2023. Her inaugural speech was on 7 March 2019. There has been no change of party and no vacancy in Bass since the 2022 election. Her record is on her Parliament of Victoria profile, as at 17 October 2026.

Ten candidates stood on 26 November 2022. Crugnale polled 13,478 first preferences, 32.6 per cent, and Aaron Brown of the Liberal Party 12,482, 30.2 per cent. The Nationals also stood, and Brett Tessari's 5,506 votes, 13.3 per cent, took the Coalition's combined first preferences to 17,988, 43.5 per cent. Of 44,539 votes cast by 89.1 per cent of the 49,984 electors enrolled, 3,135 were informal, 7.0 per cent.

The count ran to eight exclusions. The Greens' 5,049 votes went 3,301 to Crugnale, 65.4 per cent, 1,122 to Tessari and 626 to Brown. Tessari was excluded last with 8,661 votes: 5,961 of them, 68.8 per cent, went to Brown and 2,700, 31.2 per cent, to Crugnale. The final count was 20,803 to 20,601, 50.24 to 49.76 per cent, a Labor margin of 0.24 points; a shift of 102 votes at that last exclusion would have reversed it. Against the Commission's estimate of the 2018 vote on the 2021 boundaries, Labor 49.3 per cent, the result was a swing of 0.9 points to Labor; against the 2018 result on the old boundaries, Labor 52.4, it was 2.2 points to the Liberal Party.

Early votes carried the count. Of the 44,538 votes in the Commission's two-candidate count, 22,641, or 50.8 per cent, were cast at the early voting centres at Cowes and Wonthaggi, and they split 51.3 to 48.7 for Labor, a lead of 551 votes. The 14,858 election-day votes split 49.7 per cent to Labor, a Liberal lead of 85; postal votes, 10.2 per cent of the total, split 45.3 to Labor, a Liberal lead of 416; absent votes, 5.1 per cent, split 53.2 to Labor, a lead of 129.

Labor led at eleven of the 24 voting centres, with Cape Paterson at 64.6 per cent of the two-candidate vote, Wonthaggi at 58.5 and Clyde at 58.1 its strongest. The Liberal Party led at thirteen, with Bayles, where Labor polled 33.7 per cent, Catani at 37.5 and Tooradin at 38.8 its strongest. The geography is a coast and a hinterland: Labor's booths are the Bass Coast towns from Kilcunda to Inverloch, Grantville and Corinella on Western Port, Cowes and Newhaven on Phillip Island, and Clyde; the Liberal booths are the farming and Western Port towns across the north from Pearcedale through Koo Wee Rup to Bayles and Catani, with Cranbourne South, the village of Bass, and Rhyll and San Remo at the eastern end of the island.

Bass returned Liberal members at every election from 2002 to 2014 and a Labor member in 2018 and 2022. In 2010 Ken Smith won 56.5 per cent of first preferences, an absolute majority, and the indicative two-candidate count gave him 62.6 per cent, a margin of 12.6 points. The Electoral Boundaries Commission redrew the district in 2013, and in 2014 Brian Paynter held it with 54.6 per cent, a margin of 4.6 points. Enrolment grew from 44,492 in 2014 to 58,325 in 2018, when Crugnale won with 52.4 per cent, a margin of 2.4 points.

The 2021 redivision reshaped a seat that had grown to 40.97 per cent above the enrolment quota through residential growth in its north. The Commission took Pakenham and Clyde out of the district, as its report describes the change; on the Vicmap boundaries the gazetted locality of Clyde North lies outside Bass and most of the gazetted locality of Clyde within it. It brought Warneet, Blind Bight and Tooradin in from Hastings. Two proposed moves were reversed: Inverloch, 4,792 electors, was proposed for Gippsland South and kept in Bass, and Nar Nar Goon, Tynong, Garfield and Bunyip, 5,158 electors, were proposed for Bass and left in Narracan. Enrolment fell to 49,984 at the 2022 close of rolls. The Commission estimated the 2018 vote on the new boundaries at 50.7 per cent to the Liberal and National parties and 49.3 to Labor, a notional Liberal margin of 0.7 points. There has been no by-election since 2022.

Bass is the first rung on the Labor side of the Assembly pendulum. Of the 52 seats Labor holds against the Coalition, it has the smallest margin, 0.24 points, in the under-2 band. A uniform two-party swing to the Coalition of more than 0.24 points changes hands. The polls' average since the change of Premier stood at 53.9 to 46.1 to the Coalition on 16 October 2026, from nine polls, against a 2022 statewide result of 55.0 to 45.0 to Labor, so the implied uniform swing is 8.9 points to the Coalition. At that swing Labor's 2022 share in Bass falls from 50.24 to 41.3 per cent, and Bass is one of the 23 Labor-held Labor–Coalition seats the average reaches. Every poll in the average is on the Victorian election polls tracker, and the leaders' ratings are on the pages for Ben Carroll's approval rating and Jess Wilson's approval rating.

In 2022 the Liberal Party and the Nationals both stood, and the count turned on the Nationals' 8,661 last-exclusion votes, which went 68.8 per cent to the Liberal candidate and 31.2 per cent to Labor. The electorate that votes on 28 November 2026 is larger than the one that voted in 2022, with 57,158 electors in September 2026 against 49,984.

Bass is one of the eleven districts of Eastern Victoria Region, which elects five members of the Legislative Council. In 2022 the quota was 78,887 votes, and the members elected, in order, were Renee Heath (Liberal), Tom McIntosh (Labor), Melina Bath (The Nationals), Harriet Shing (Labor) and Jeff Bourman (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers). All five sit as at 17 October 2026. The region and its members are set out in the Council section of the hub.

Results, enrolment, boundaries and the timetable are from the Victorian Electoral Commission; the 2022 result is its distribution of preferences and the booth shares its two-candidate-preferred count by voting centre. Members are from the Parliament of Victoria as at 17 October 2026; enrolment is as at September 2026. Boundaries, localities and postcodes are Vicmap Admin, © State of Victoria, CC BY 4.0, matched to the district by area. Population figures are the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2021 Census, area-weighted by locality. The polls' average is the Victorian election 2026 hub's register, updated 16 October 2026. Analysis and visualisation by Komms-Haus.