Mornington

Mornington covers 154.63 square kilometres on the Mornington Peninsula. The localities of Mornington, Mount Eliza, Mount Martha and Tuerong lie wholly within it, together with 93.1 per cent of the gazetted locality of Moorooduc and 13.7 per cent of Baxter, both shared with Hastings.

Enrolment stood at 49,721 in September 2026, up 1,673, or 3.5 per cent, on the 48,048 electors at the close of rolls in 2022. The district adjoins Frankston to the north, Hastings to the east and Nepean to the south. At the 2021 Census its localities held 65,556 people on an area-weighted estimate, 26.2 per cent of them aged 65 and over, and 15.1 per cent of occupied dwellings were rented while 42.7 per cent were owned outright. Professionals made up 24.2 per cent of employed residents and managers 18.2 per cent.

Chris Crewther has been the member for Mornington since 26 November 2022, when he won the seat for the Liberal Party; David Morris, the Liberal member who had won it at the 2010, 2014 and 2018 elections, did not stand in 2022. He has been the Liberal Party Whip in the Legislative Assembly since 18 December 2022, and since 5 February 2026 he has been Shadow Assistant Minister to the Shadow Treasurer and Shadow Assistant Minister for Multicultural and Multifaith Affairs. He has been Deputy Chair of the Electoral Matters Committee since 17 February 2025. His inaugural speech was on 20 December 2022. There has been no change of party and no vacancy in Mornington since the 2022 election. His record is on his Parliament of Victoria profile, as at 17 October 2026.

Eight candidates stood on 26 November 2022. Crewther polled 17,910 first preferences, 42.6 per cent. Kate Lardner, standing as an independent, polled 9,432, 22.4 per cent, and Georgia Fowler of Labor 9,246, 22.0 per cent. Harry Sinclair of the Greens took 2,677 votes, 6.4 per cent. Of 43,885 votes cast by 91.3 per cent of the 48,048 electors enrolled, 1,823 were informal, 4.2 per cent.

The count ran to six exclusions, and the final count was between the Liberal candidate and an independent because Lardner stayed ahead of Labor's Fowler to the end. The Greens' 3,145 votes, excluded fifth, went 1,589 to Lardner, 50.5 per cent, 1,204 to Fowler, 38.3 per cent, and 352 to Crewther, which left Lardner on 11,809 votes and Fowler on 10,649. Fowler was excluded last, and her 10,649 votes went 8,927 to Lardner, 83.8 per cent, and 1,722 to Crewther, 16.2 per cent. The final count was 21,326 to 20,736, 50.7 to 49.3 per cent, a Liberal margin of 0.7 points over the independent; a shift of 296 votes at that last exclusion would have reversed it. The 2018 count was between the Liberal Party and Labor, so no swing from 2018 measures the change between the two elections.

Early and postal votes carried the count. Of the 43,846 votes in the Commission's two-candidate count, 23,335, or 53.2 per cent, were cast at the early voting centres, and they split 51.6 to 48.4 for Crewther, a lead of 732 votes. Postal votes, 13.8 per cent of the total, split 59.6 per cent to Crewther, a lead of 1,124. The 12,836 election-day votes split 55.3 per cent to Lardner, a lead of 1,313, and absent votes, 3.3 per cent of the total, split 51.2 to Crewther, a lead of 32.

Lardner led at ten of the 14 voting centres, with Tanti Park at 63.2 per cent of the two-candidate vote, Mt Martha at 60.2 and Mornington South at 60.0 her strongest. Crewther led at four, with Mt Eliza Central, where he polled 58.5 per cent, Derinya at 54.9 and Baden Powell at 53.1 his strongest, and Mt Eliza, counted among Lardner's ten, split 625 to 624 in her favour. Lardner led at every one of the larger election-day centres, including Mornington East, the largest at 1,529 two-candidate votes, and Osborne at 1,502, while Crewther's four leads were at centres with 424 two-candidate votes or fewer, and his majority was built at the early voting centres and in the post.

Mornington has returned a Liberal member at every election since the district was created again in 1985. David Morris won an absolute majority of first preferences at each of the three elections from 2010, and the Commission's indicative two-candidate count against Labor gave him 66.0 per cent in 2010, a margin of 16.0 points, 62.6 per cent in 2014, a margin of 12.6 points, after the Electoral Boundaries Commission redrew the district in 2013, and 55.0 per cent in 2018, a margin of 5.0 points. His first-preference share fell from 61.4 per cent in 2010 to 50.6 in 2018, while enrolment grew from 40,195 to 47,184.

The 2021 redivision left Mornington unchanged, one of eight districts the Commission did not redraw. The Commission recorded the district at 48,067 electors at 30 November 2020, 1.15 per cent below the average enrolment, and found no pressing need to change its boundaries. Submissions to move the boundary with Hastings west to Peninsula Link or Moorooduc Highway were declined, and the boundary along Coolart Road was kept, the Commission's report describing it as clear to electors in the area. The Commission's estimate of the 2018 vote on the 2022 boundaries is therefore the 2018 result itself, 55.0 per cent to the Liberal and National parties and 45.0 to Labor on a two-party basis, a notional Liberal margin of 5.0 points against Labor. That figure describes a Labor–Coalition contest, and the 2022 count was decided between the Liberal Party and an independent. There has been no by-election since 2022.

Mornington is not on the Labor–Coalition pendulum. The seat is held by the Liberal Party against an independent, so the polls' average swing between Labor and the Coalition, 54.0 to 46.0 to the Coalition on 26 October 2026, from ten polls, a uniform swing of 9.0 points, does not measure the contest here. The margin that measures it is the 0.7 points, in the under-2 band, between Crewther and Lardner on the two-candidate count, and a shift of more than 0.7 points between those two candidates changes the seat. Every poll in the statewide average is on the Victorian election polls tracker, and the leaders' ratings are on the pages for Ben Carroll's approval rating and Jess Wilson's approval rating.

In 2022 the count turned on Lardner finishing ahead of Fowler, 9,432 first preferences to 9,246, and on Labor's last-exclusion votes, which went 83.8 per cent to the independent. The electorate that votes on 28 November 2026 is larger than the one that voted in 2022, with 49,721 electors in September 2026 against 48,048.

Mornington is one of the eleven districts of Eastern Victoria Region, which elects five members of the Legislative Council. In 2022 the quota was 78,887 votes, and the members elected, in order, were Renee Heath (Liberal), Tom McIntosh (Labor), Melina Bath (The Nationals), Harriet Shing (Labor) and Jeff Bourman (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers). All five sit as at 17 October 2026. The region and its members are set out in the Council section of the hub.

Results, enrolment, boundaries and the timetable are from the Victorian Electoral Commission; the 2022 result is its distribution of preferences and the booth shares its two-candidate-preferred count by voting centre. Members are from the Parliament of Victoria as at 17 October 2026; enrolment is as at September 2026. Boundaries, localities and postcodes are Vicmap Admin, © State of Victoria, CC BY 4.0, matched to the district by area. Population figures are the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2021 Census, area-weighted by locality. The 2021 redivision is described in the Electoral Boundaries Commission's report. The polls' average is the Victorian election 2026 hub's register, updated 26 October 2026.