VICTORIA · 28 NOVEMBER 2026 30 DAYS TO GO UPDATED 26 OCTOBER

The Coalition leads Victoria 54–46. Every poll since July has it ahead.

Ace Strategies Intelligence Unit

The swing since 2022, drawn as a pendulumStraight down is 50–50, Labor's side is to the left and the Coalition's to the right. In 2022 the Coalition's two-party share was 45; the average of the ten readings since 28 July 2026 is 54.0, a swing of 9.0 points, past the majority line at 52.6. Each reading is marked outside the scale in its house's shape, and the latest, Newspoll's 55, is ringed.50majority52.6+9.0202245latest 55now54.0LaborCoalition
Coalition
54.0
Labor
46.0
Swing since 2022
+9.0
Majority needs
52.6
The bob hangs at the average of the ten two-party figures published since Ben Carroll became Premier on 28 July, give or take 0.9 points of sampling error. Each mark on the outer arc is one of those polls, in its house's shape, and the ringed mark is the latest.
  • RedBridge / Accent
  • Freshwater Strategy
  • Roy Morgan
  • DemosAU
  • Resolve Strategic
  • Newspoll

In 2022 Labor won Victoria 55–45. The polls now have the Coalition 9.0 points better off, past the 52.6 it needs for a majority on a uniform swing, with the election on Saturday 28 November.

The figures on this page were last updated on .

The latest poll · Newspoll · 15–22 Oct 2026

Newspoll has the Coalition ahead 55–45.

Newspoll polled 1,017 Victorians for The Australian. Its 55–45 is a point better for the Coalition than the average, and the largest gap is in the Coalition's primary vote, 3.7 points above the average.

Primary voteNewspollAverage
Coalition 33 29.3 +3.7
Labor 24 24.4 −0.4
One Nation 20 22.5 −2.5
Greens 14 13.8 +0.2
Others not published 10.8

Newest wave by fieldwork · Average: the twelve polls since 28 July 2026, unweighted · Bar runs from the average to this poll, on a scale of 0 to 40 · A dash marks a figure Newspoll did not publish

Two-party preferred · June 2025 to polling day

The Coalition drew level in October 2025 and passed the majority line in May 2026.

Each mark is one published two-party figure for the Coalition, and the line is the trend through all of them. The shaded stretch is Ben Carroll's time as Premier, and the open stretch after it is the time left before polling day.

The Coalition's two-party share in every poll since June 2025The trend of every published two-party reading rose from about 47.8 in mid-2025, reached level pegging in October 2025 and passed the majority line of 52.6 in May 2026, and stands at 54.3. The 2022 result was 45. The readings since the change of Premier run from 51 to 57.455055majority line 52.62022 result 45level, Oct 202528 NovJul 2025Jan 2026Jul 2026
  • RedBridge / Accent
  • Newspoll
  • DemosAU
  • Resolve Strategic
  • Roy Morgan
  • Freshwater Strategy
  • YouGov MRP

Of the 10 two-party figures published since the change of Premier, seven clear the majority line and three fall short, and they run from 51–49 to 57–43.

Two-party figures as each house published them · Trend: Gaussian kernel, σ = 35 days, with its 95% sampling band · 2022: VEC

Seats · the uniform swing

At the average swing, 25 Labor seats change hands. The Coalition needs 16.

Each block is one of the 52 seats Labor won from the Coalition in 2022, set at its margin. Every seat under the water falls to the Coalition if every seat swings by the average.

The seats Labor won from the Coalition in 2022, under the average swingLabor won 52 seats from the Coalition in 2022, from Bass at 0.24 points to Dandenong at 19.11. The Coalition needs 16 of them, which takes a uniform swing of 7.6. At the average swing of 9.0, 25 are under the water, the last of them Eltham. 9 seats sit beyond 14 points and are drawn at the right edge.average swing 9.0Bass, 0.24Pakenham, 0.39Hastings, 1.35Ripon, 2.99Glen Waverley, 3.30Bayswater, 4.23Yan Yean, 4.45Melton, 4.59Ashwood, 6.15Sunbury, 6.41Niddrie, 6.69Greenvale, 6.92Eureka, 7.17Box Hill, 7.23Ringwood, 7.53Monbulk, 7.55Bentleigh, 8.04Mordialloc, 8.19Point Cook, 8.34Bellarine, 8.46Narre Warren South, 8.50Frankston, 8.66Sydenham, 8.73Cranbourne, 9.00Eltham, 9.00Narre Warren North, 9.16Macedon, 9.54St Albans, 9.56South Barwon, 9.80Carrum, 9.94Mulgrave, 10.20Clarinda, 10.37Werribee, 10.50Bendigo East, 10.91Albert Park, 11.15Mill Park, 11.43Essendon, 12.45Tarneit, 12.58Bundoora, 12.74Ivanhoe, 12.75Williamstown, 13.44Wendouree, 13.46Oakleigh, 13.48majority at 7.616 seats02468101214+Labor's 2022 margin over the Coalition, in points
Coalition holds
29
Falls at the average
+25
Majority of 88
45

A uniform swing is a ruler. Both published seat models give the Coalition 39, six short of a majority, because with One Nation on a fifth of the vote the seats will not swing alike.

2022 margins: VEC, all 88 districts · Labor-held seats contested by the Coalition in 2022 · Seats over 14 points drawn at the right edge

Preferred premier · every poll that asked

The Opposition Leader has led in all 20 polls that asked.

Each column is one poll, and its height is the Opposition Leader's lead over the Premier. In the latest, Newspoll's, Jess Wilson leads Ben Carroll 48 to 34.

The Opposition Leader's lead on preferred premier in every poll that asked20 polls have asked since June 2025 and the Opposition Leader has led in 20: Battin against Allan, then Wilson against Allan, then Wilson against Carroll. The median lead is 11 points, and the latest, Newspoll's, is 14.+10+200Battin v AllanWilson v AllanWilson v CarrollNewspoll, Battin ahead by 5Resolve Strategic, Battin ahead by 7Resolve Strategic, Battin ahead by 6DemosAU, Battin ahead by 8Resolve Strategic, Wilson ahead by 19Resolve Strategic, Wilson ahead by 19DemosAU, Wilson ahead by 9Freshwater Strategy, Wilson ahead by 16Resolve Strategic, Wilson ahead by 19Freshwater Strategy, Wilson ahead by 24DemosAU, Wilson ahead by 19Newspoll, Wilson ahead by 19Freshwater Strategy, Wilson ahead by 13DemosAU, Wilson ahead by 9Resolve Strategic, Wilson ahead by 6Resolve Strategic, Wilson ahead by 8Freshwater Strategy, Wilson ahead by 12RedBridge / Accent, Wilson ahead by 9Resolve Strategic, Wilson ahead by 7Newspoll, Wilson ahead by 14+14

Lead in points, as each house published it · Median lead 11 · The solid columns are against Ben Carroll

The days to polling day

30 days remain, and five houses are due to poll before early voting opens.

The writs are issued on 3 November, early voting runs from 18 November to 27 November, and each house's mark sits on the day its next poll is due on its usual rhythm.

  1. 2929 October: today, Freshwater Strategy and DemosAU due.
  2. 30
  3. 31
  4. Nov1
  5. 2
  6. 33 November: the writs are issued.
  7. 4
  8. 5
  9. 6
  10. 77 November: RedBridge / Accent due.
  11. 8
  12. 99 November: Resolve Strategic due.
  13. 10
  14. 11
  15. 1212 November: Newspoll due.
  16. 13
  17. 14
  18. 15
  19. 16
  20. 17
  21. 1818 November: early voting.
  22. 1919 November: early voting.
  23. 2020 November: early voting.
  24. 2121 November: early voting.
  25. 2222 November: early voting.
  26. 2323 November: early voting.
  27. 2424 November: early voting.
  28. 2525 November: early voting.
  29. 2626 November: early voting.
  30. 2727 November: early voting.
  31. 2828 November: polling day.
  • Newspoll
  • Resolve Strategic
  • RedBridge / Accent
  • Freshwater Strategy
  • DemosAU

On their usual rhythms Freshwater Strategy and DemosAU each poll about monthly and last reported in September, so those readings are due now, and Newspoll, Resolve Strategic and RedBridge / Accent are next due in November. Roy Morgan last fielded 5–7 August and has published no Victorian wave in the eleven weeks since. This page is updated within a day of each new poll.

Read further

Every poll since June 2025

The table lists all 36 polls from seven houses, newest first, and an em dash marks a figure the house did not publish.

HouseFieldworkCoalitionLaborOne NationGreensTwo-party
Newspoll15–22 Oct 20263324201455–45
Resolve Strategic6–10 Oct 202628252315—
RedBridge / Accent2–8 Oct 20263024241656–44
Freshwater Strategy24–28 Sep 20262924221453–47
DemosAU10–20 Sep 20263025201452–48
Resolve Strategic6–12 Sep 202628252312—
RedBridge / Accent1–14 Sep 20262924251556–44
Resolve Strategic9–15 Aug 20262725231253–47
DemosAU6–11 Aug 20263223221355–45
Roy Morgan5–7 Aug 2026262623.512.551–49
Freshwater Strategy31 Jul – 3 Aug 20263025221452–48
RedBridge / Accent28 Jul – 1 Aug 20263023221457–43
Newspoll23–26 Jul 20263128191352–48
Resolve Strategic6–12 Jul 202627272212—
RedBridge / Accent17–28 Jun 20262626271354–46
YouGov MRP16 Jun – 10 Jul 20262623241353.8–46.2
DemosAU7–11 Jun 20263021231555–45
Freshwater Strategy5–8 Jun 20262723251453–47
Roy Morgan22–24 Apr 20262425.524.513.549–51
Resolve Strategic12–18 Apr 202627262311—
Freshwater Strategy19–23 Mar 20263027201452–48
RedBridge / Accent18–27 Feb 20262825241352–48
Freshwater Strategy19–23 Feb 20262728231350–50
Roy Morgan13–16 Feb 202621.525.526.513.548–52
DemosAU1–10 Feb 20262923211553–47
Resolve Strategic15 Jan – 15 Feb 202630281112—
RedBridge / Accent24 Nov – 8 Dec 20254031—1250–50
Resolve Strategic1 Nov – 7 Dec 2025————51–49
Newspoll18–20 Nov 20253628—1451–49
DemosAU21–27 Oct 20253726—1551–49
RedBridge / Accent8–14 Oct 20253832—1348–52
Resolve Strategic1 Sep – 12 Oct 20253330—12—
RedBridge / Accent3–11 Sep 20253831—1348–52
Resolve Strategic1 Jul – 17 Aug 20253332—12—
Newspoll23–30 Jun 20253535—1247–53
RedBridge / Accent19–30 Jun 20253833—1448.5–51.5

The same figures are in the CSV and the JSON, and each wave's sources and flags are on the data story.

How the figures are made

The average is the unweighted mean of every poll fielded since the change of Premier on 28 July 2026, with each house counted once per wave. Two-party figures are each house's own, and a house that publishes none counts in the primary-vote averages only.

The sampling error quoted is that of the average and is a floor on the real uncertainty, because the houses disagree with each other by more than it.

A seat changes hands at a swing when Labor won it in 2022 against the Coalition by no more than that swing, counted over all 88 districts on their 2022 margins. The seat models quoted are the two published ones.

A house is due when its usual interval has passed since its last fieldwork. No house publishes a schedule, and a poll that lands earlier or later is added the same day.

Ace Strategies publishes DemosAU's polling as its research and polling partner, and DemosAU polled for Ace Strategies in October 2025 and for Premier National in 2026. Its waves are treated like every other house's in the averages.

Questions people ask

Who is leading the Victorian election polls?

The Coalition leads. Across the twelve polls fielded since the change of Premier on 28 July 2026, its two-party average is 54–46 over Labor, and every house that has polled the state has it ahead.

Which Victorian poll is the latest?

The most recent published wave is Newspoll's for The Australian, fielded 15–22 Oct 2026 from a sample of 1,017. It put the Coalition on 33 per cent of the primary vote, Labor on 24 and One Nation on 20.

When is the Victorian state election?

The next Victorian state election is on Saturday 28 November 2026. All 88 seats of the Legislative Assembly are contested, along with 40 of the Legislative Council, and the Victorian Electoral Commission runs the count.

Will the Coalition win a majority in Victoria?

The averages and the seat models disagree. The post-change two-party average clears the majority line, but both published seat models leave the Coalition on 39 of 88 seats, six short of a majority, because a three-cornered contest does not swing uniformly.

Every figure is transcribed from the pollster's own release, or from The Conversation or The Poll Bludger where a house publishes none, and the averages, the trend, the swing and the seat counts are computed from them.