Warrandyte

Warrandyte covers 106.66 square kilometres along the Yarra River in Melbourne's north-east. Warrandyte, Warrandyte South, Park Orchards, Wonga Park, Warranwood and Ringwood North lie wholly in the district, as does North Warrandyte on the northern bank. It holds 94.4 per cent of the gazetted locality of Donvale, shared with Ringwood, 70.0 per cent of Doncaster East, shared with Bulleen, 60.3 per cent of Chirnside Park, shared with Evelyn, and parts of Ringwood and Templestowe.

Enrolment stood at 51,699 in September 2026, up 748, or 1.5 per cent, on the 50,951 enrolled in 2022. The district adjoins Eltham and Eildon across the Yarra to the north-west and north, Evelyn to the east, Croydon to the south-east, Ringwood to the south, Box Hill at its south-western corner and Bulleen to the west. At the 2021 Census its localities held 76,229 people on an area-weighted estimate, 19.3 per cent of them aged 65 and over, and 15.7 per cent of occupied dwellings were rented.

Nicole Werner has been the member for Warrandyte since 1 September 2023, the date her Parliament of Victoria profile gives, after winning the by-election of 26 August 2023 for the Liberal Party. Ryan Smith won the seat for the Liberal Party at the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections, and the by-election followed. Werner has been Shadow Minister for Home Ownership and Housing Affordability and Shadow Minister for Youth since 30 November 2025, Shadow Minister for Child Protection since 5 February 2026 and a member of the Assembly's Economy and Infrastructure Committee since 27 November 2024; her inaugural speech was on 4 October 2023. Her record is on her Parliament of Victoria profile, read 26 October 2026.

Six candidates stood on 26 November 2022. Ryan Smith polled 21,344 first preferences for the Liberal Party, 47.4 per cent, Naomi Oakley of Labor 14,946, 33.2 per cent, Deepak Joshi of the Greens 5,283, 11.7 per cent, and the three other candidates between 1.5 and 4.0 per cent each; the Nationals did not stand. Of 46,657 votes cast by 91.6 per cent of the 50,951 enrolled, 1,582 were informal, 3.4 per cent.

The official distribution ran to three exclusions. Vernay was excluded last with 2,237 votes: 1,466 of them, 65.5 per cent, went to Smith, 519 to Joshi and 252 to Oakley. Smith then held 23,112 of the 45,075 formal votes, an absolute majority, to Oakley's 15,495 and Joshi's 6,468, and the count closed. The Commission's two-candidate-preferred count gave Smith 24,426 to 20,682, 54.2 to 45.8 per cent, a Liberal margin of 4.2 points and 3,744 votes. Against the Commission's estimate of the 2018 vote on the 2021 boundaries, Labor 46.2 per cent, the result was a swing of 0.4 points to the Liberal Party; against the Commission's two-party figure for 2018 on the old boundaries, Labor 46.1, it was 0.3 points to the Liberal Party.

Of the 46,640 votes in the Commission's two-candidate count, 21,392, or 45.9 per cent, were early votes, which split 54.5 to 45.5 for the Liberal Party, a lead of 1,851. The 16,391 election-day votes at the 21 ordinary voting centres, 35.1 per cent, split 52.3 to the Liberal Party, a lead of 723; postal votes, 13.5 per cent, split 59.6 to the Liberal Party, a lead of 1,176; absent votes, 5.1 per cent, split 50.6 to Labor, a lead of 27.

The Liberal Party led at eleven of the 21 voting centres, with Donvale at 64.9 per cent of the two-candidate vote, Park Orchards at 64.4 and Wonga Park at 63.1 its strongest. Labor led at ten, with Croydon North at 61.5 per cent of 65 two-party votes, North Warrandyte at 60.0 and Norwood at 57.5 its strongest. Labor's ten are Beverley Hills, Croydon North, Donburn, Doncaster East, Doncaster Gardens, Milgate, North Warrandyte, Norwood, Ringwood Heights and Warrandyte; the Liberal eleven include Donvale, Park Orchards, Warrandyte South, Wonga Park, Warranwood, Ringwood North and Chirnside Park.

On the Commission's historical pattern Warrandyte returned Liberal members from 1976 to 1982, Labor members from 1982 to 1988 and Liberal members at every election since 1988. Ryan Smith won absolute majorities of first preferences in 2010 and 2014, 58.5 and 56.9 per cent, and the indicative two-candidate counts gave him margins of 13.9 and 11.6 points; the district was redrawn in 2013. In 2018 his first-preference share fell to 49.8 per cent, and the distribution stopped at 50.77 per cent when he reached an absolute majority with Elizabeth McGrath of Labor and Ben Ramcharan of the Greens still in the count.

The 2021 redivision enlarged a district that had fallen to 10.69 per cent below the district average at 30 November 2020. The Commission moved 5,327 electors in Doncaster East and south of Reynolds Road to Bulleen. It brought in 4,091 electors in Chirnside Park from Evelyn, 4,241 in Ringwood North and Park Orchards from Croydon, and 4,853 in Ringwood North from Ringwood. The redrawn district held 51,287 electors, 5.47 per cent above the average. The Commission estimated the 2018 vote on the new boundaries at 53.8 per cent to the Liberal and National parties, a notional Liberal margin of 3.8 points.

A by-election followed on 26 August 2023. Nicole Werner won it for the Liberal Party with 71.0 per cent of the two-candidate count against the Greens, a margin of 21.0 points; Labor did not stand.

Warrandyte is the seventh rung on the Coalition side of the Assembly pendulum: of the 23 seats the Coalition holds against Labor, six have smaller margins, and its 4.2 points sit in the 2 to 6 band, so a uniform two-party swing of 4.2 points to Labor changes the seat. The polls' average since the change of Premier stood at 54.0 to 46.0 to the Coalition on 26 October 2026, from ten polls, against a 2022 statewide result of 55.0 to 45.0 to Labor, an implied uniform swing of 9.0 points to the Coalition. At that swing the Liberal share in Warrandyte rises from 54.2 to 63.2 per cent; the 25 seats the average reaches are all Labor-held, so Warrandyte is not among them. Every poll in the average is on the Victorian election polls tracker, and the leaders' ratings are on the pages for Ben Carroll's approval rating and Jess Wilson's approval rating.

The 2023 by-election, a Liberal–Greens count with Labor absent, measured a different contest from the two-party margin that places the seat on the pendulum. The electorate that votes on 28 November 2026 holds 51,699 electors in September 2026 against 50,951 in 2022.

Warrandyte is one of the eleven districts of North-Eastern Metropolitan Region, which elects five members of the Legislative Council. In 2022 the quota was 80,147 votes, and the members elected, in order, were Shaun Leane (Labor), Matthew Bach (Liberal), Sonja Terpstra (Labor), Nick McGowan (Liberal) and Aiv Puglielli (Greens). Richard Welch (Liberal) filled the casual vacancy left by Bach during the term, and the five sit as at 17 October 2026. The region and its members are set out in the Council section of the hub.

Results, enrolment, boundaries and the timetable are from the Victorian Electoral Commission; the 2022 result and the booth shares are its two-candidate-preferred count, the official distribution having closed with three candidates remaining. Members are from the Parliament of Victoria as at 17 October 2026; enrolment is as at September 2026. Boundaries, localities and postcodes are Vicmap Admin, © State of Victoria, CC BY 4.0, matched to the district by area. Population figures are the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2021 Census, area-weighted by locality. The polls' average is the Victorian election 2026 hub's register, updated 26 October 2026.