RedBridge Victoria September 2026

RedBridge / Accent polled 2,371 Victorian voters from 1–14 Sep 2026 and has the Coalition ahead 56–44 after preferences. It is the thirtieth wave in the Victorian election polls 2026 tracker, which now averages the polls fielded since the change of premier at 54–46 to the Coalition.

The numbers

On primary vote the Coalition is on 29 per cent, Labor 24, One Nation 25, the Greens 15 and others 7. This wave did not ask a preferred-premier question.

What moved

Against RedBridge / Accent's last wave, fielded 28 Jul – 1 Aug 2026, the Coalition is down one, Labor is up one, One Nation is up three, the Greens are up one and others are down four. Its two-party figure moved from 57–43 to 56–44, a shift of one point to Labor.

The cross-house trend did not follow it down: over the six weeks between RedBridge's two waves the trend across every house edged up from 53.6 to 53.9, and at 56 this wave still sits about two points above it.

Where that leaves the race

The post-change average across the six two-party readings published since the change of premier is 54–46 to the Coalition, give or take 1.1 points of sampling error, on a range from 51–49 to 57–43. Four of the six clear the 7.6-point uniform swing the Coalition needs for a majority, and the average clears it by 1.4. This wave on its own implies a swing of 11 points since 2022.

On the average the Coalition is past the line it needs, and past it by more than the sampling error around that average. What the average cannot settle is the spread beneath it: the published readings run from short of a majority to comfortably past one, and a gap that size between houses is a disagreement about the state rather than a shortage of sample.

Every wave from every house, the within-house shifts, the swing-o-meter and the seat model are on the tracker, which was updated with this poll on 17 September 2026.

Source: RedBridge Group / Accent Research for the Financial Review; The Poll Bludger, 16 Sep 2026. RedBridge / Accent for Financial Review, fieldwork 1–14 Sep 2026, n 2,371; two-party preferred by respondent-allocated preferences.

What the register notes on this wave

• Both two-party figures are respondent-allocated, stated as such in the report.
• The others figure is the residual on the four primary votes reported; the report seen does not give it separately.
• The figures rest on one account, The Poll Bludger's of 16 September 2026, as The Conversation had not written the wave up by then.
• The widest two-party margin in the register, from its largest sample outside the June model.