Resolve Strategic Victoria September 2026

Resolve Strategic polled 967 Victorian voters from 6–12 Sep 2026 and does not publish a two-party figure for this wave. It is the thirty-first wave in the Victorian election polls 2026 tracker, which now averages the polls fielded since the change of premier at 54–46 to the Coalition.

The numbers

On primary vote the Coalition is on 28 per cent, Labor 25, One Nation 23, the Greens 12 and others 13. Jess Wilson leads Ben Carroll as preferred premier 28–20.

What moved

Against Resolve Strategic's last wave, fielded 9–15 Aug 2026, the Coalition is up one, and Labor, One Nation, the Greens and others did not move. The two waves cannot be compared on two-party preferred, because this one publishes no figure for it.

The cross-house trend did not move either: over the four weeks between Resolve's two waves it shifted by less than a fifth of a point on every party, so a flat wave and a flat line are saying the same thing.

Where that leaves the race

The post-change average across the six two-party readings published since the change of premier is 54–46 to the Coalition, give or take 1.1 points of sampling error, on a range from 51–49 to 57–43. Four of the six clear the 7.6-point uniform swing the Coalition needs for a majority, and the average clears it by 1.4.

On the average the Coalition is past the line it needs, and past it by more than the sampling error around that average, but the readings underneath it still run from short of a majority to comfortably past one. This wave does not narrow that: Resolve publishes primary votes and no two-party figure, so it moves the average the seat model reads from and leaves the two-party question where the other houses left it.

Every wave from every house, the within-house shifts, the swing-o-meter and the seat model are on the tracker, which was updated with this poll on 17 September 2026.

Source: Resolve Strategic for The Age, reported 14 Sep 2026; The Conversation (A. Beaumont), 15 Sep 2026; The Poll Bludger, 16 Sep 2026, for the sample and the undecided share. Resolve Strategic for The Age, fieldwork 6–12 Sep 2026, n 967; no two-party figure is published for this wave.

What the register notes on this wave

• The fieldwork is stated as 6–12 September, a seven-day window.
• Preferred premier was asked three ways, with Warren Pickering offered, and 44 per cent were undecided.
• No two-party figure was published, and a figure carried forward from an earlier wave would be an assumption rather than a reading, so none is recorded.
• No likeability figure is recorded for this wave: The Age reports Warren Pickering with a net-positive rating, but the reports seen give no number for him, Ben Carroll or Jess Wilson.
• The same survey asked whether two commitments were worth going into debt for, and respondents said the Suburban Rail Loop was not, 49–27, and Labor's publicly funded dental pledge was not, 41–35.
• Resolve is the first house to publish two waves since the change of Premier.