DemosAU VIC State Polling Results - September 2026

DemosAU and PremierNational polled 1,020 Victorian voters between 10 and 20 September 2026, ten weeks before the 28 November state election.

Primary vote. The Coalition is on 30 per cent, Labor on 25, One Nation on 20, the Greens on 14 and other parties and independents on 11. Labor's 25 is its highest reading since October 2025. It sits five points above One Nation, which is inside the margin a gap of that size carries, so the poll does not establish an order between the two.

Two-party preferred. The Coalition leads Labor 52 to 48, where it led 55 to 45 in the August wave.

Movement since August. Labor is up two points, the Coalition down two, One Nation down two, the Greens up one and others up one. On an effective sample of 572 the poll carries a margin of error of ±4.1 per cent, which puts a 95 per cent interval of about ±5.8 points on a change between two waves. Every one of those movements, and the three-point narrowing of the two-party margin, falls inside that interval, so the month's figures are consistent with no change in any party's support.

Swings since the 2022 election. These are a different matter, and they are large. One Nation is up 19.7 points on a party that barely registered in 2022, Labor is down 11.7, others are down 6.0, the Coalition is down 4.5 and the Greens are up 2.5. The two-party swing against Labor is 7.0 points.

Personal ratings. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson is the only one of the three leaders rated with a net positive score, at 8 per cent, from 33 per cent positive and 25 per cent negative. Premier Ben Carroll is at a net 14 points negative and One Nation leader Warren Pickering at a net 18 points negative. Against August, Carroll has gained two points, Pickering one, and Wilson has lost three. The full report rates Greens leader Ellen Sandell at a net 15 points negative.

Preferred premier. DemosAU published no preferred-premier figure for this wave.

Figures the release adds. DemosAU's release of 14 October 2026 gives Legislative Council primary votes of Coalition 25, Labor 20, One Nation 19 and Greens 13, with other parties and independents not given. It also gives two-party figures by age, which are subsample readings rather than headline figures: Labor leads 58 to 42 among voters aged 18 to 34, and the Coalition leads 60 to 40 among those aged 55 and over.

Method. The sample was drawn from internet panels and rim weighted on age by gender, education, personal income, residential tenure, language, region, 2025 federal vote and left–right self-identification. State voting intention was the first substantive question after demographics. Initial undecided voters were asked a leaner question and the remainder were excluded from the totals. The two-party figure uses preference flows informed by the 2022 state election for the Greens and respondent-allocated flows from DemosAU's 2026 Victorian polling for One Nation and others, at 90 to 10 to Labor for the Greens, 81 to 19 to the Coalition for One Nation and 58 to 42 to Labor for others.

Full question text, response categories and randomisation are set out in the report.