NORTH-EASTERN METROPOLITAN REGION · LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY LABOR BY 3.3 POINTS IN 2022 30 DAYS TO GO

Glen Waverley

John Mullahy holds Glen Waverley for Labor by 3.3 points on the two-party count, a margin of 2,951 votes at the 2022 election, the first held in the district since its creation in 2021. It is the fifth of the 52 seats Labor holds against the Coalition, in the 2 to 6 band. On a uniform swing at the polls' average of 9.0 points to the Coalition, read on 26 October 2026, the seat changes hands. The district takes in Glen Waverley, Vermont South and parts of Forest Hill, Vermont, Burwood East, Wheelers Hill and Blackburn South, in North-Eastern Metropolitan Region.

Members as at ; the polls' average as at .

I

Where it is

Glen Waverley District · 36.28 km²

Glen Waverley and its neighbours, with the 2022 voting centres

The district is outlined against its neighbours. Each circle is a 2022 voting centre, sized by its two-candidate vote and coloured by the winner's share of it, and the diamonds mark the early voting centres.

Mount View · Labor 57.3% of 1,543Glendal · Labor 57% of 1,229The Glen · Labor 61.1% of 1,154Charlesworth Park · Labor 51.3% of 1,115Parkmore · Labor 55.9% of 1,058Morack · Labor 54.1% of 1,006Wheelers Hill · Labor 49.8% of 974Camelot · Labor 55% of 927Eastmont · Labor 52.1% of 856Glen Waverley South · Labor 53.1% of 850Highvale · Labor 56.7% of 836Burwood Heights · Labor 56.8% of 803Weeden Heights · Labor 50.7% of 747Jells Park · Labor 52.5% of 727Glen Waverley Central · Labor 63% of 660Glen Waverley · Labor 61% of 551Forest Hill · Labor 56.7% of 367Tally Ho · Labor 52.7% of 364Glen Waverley Lower · Labor 52% of 227Vermont North · Labor 46% of 215Nunawading South · Labor 70.5% of 44Mitcham South · Labor 59.5% of 37Glen Waverley EO - EVCForest Hill EVC

The map shows Glen Waverley with 7 adjoining districts, Rowville, Ringwood, Ashwood, Bayswater, Mulgrave, Box Hill, Oakleigh, and the 22 ordinary voting centres of 2022, whose results are in the booth section below.

Boundaries: Vicmap Admin, © State of Victoria, CC BY 4.0 · Results and voting centres: VEC, 2022 · Members as at 17 October 2026

Glen Waverley covers 36.28 square kilometres between Canterbury Road in the north and the Monash Freeway and Ferntree Gully Road in the south. Glen Waverley and Vermont South are whole localities under the page's rule (95 per cent or more of their area); the district also holds 78.6 per cent of the gazetted locality of Forest Hill, 74.0 per cent of Vermont, 47.8 per cent of Burwood East, 43.1 per cent of Wheelers Hill and 12.4 per cent of Blackburn South.

Enrolment stood at 50,605 in September 2026, down 213, or 0.4 per cent, on the 50,818 electors at the close of rolls in 2022. The district adjoins Box Hill to the north-west, Ringwood across Canterbury Road to the north, Bayswater across Dandenong Creek to the east, Rowville to the south-east, Mulgrave to the south, Oakleigh to the south-west and Ashwood across Blackburn Road to the west. At the 2021 Census its localities held 85,634 people on an area-weighted estimate, 22.0 per cent of them aged 65 and over; 51.3 per cent were born outside Australia, 52.4 per cent spoke a language other than English at home, and 22.7 per cent of occupied dwellings were rented.

II

Who holds it

John Mullahy has been the member for Glen Waverley since 26 November 2022, when he won the new district for Labor. He has been Government Whip in the Assembly since 5 May 2026 and was an Acting Speaker from 6 February 2024 to 12 May 2026. He has sat on the Assembly's Economy and Infrastructure Committee since 23 February 2023, the Parliamentary Ethics Committee since 14 August 2025 and the Standing Orders and House committees since 18 June 2026. His inaugural speech was on 21 February 2023. There has been no change of party and no vacancy since the 2022 election. His record is on his Parliament of Victoria profile, read 26 October 2026, and he holds the seat as at 17 October 2026.

III

The 2022 result

Seven candidates stood on 26 November 2022. Mullahy polled 18,153 first preferences, 40.6 per cent, and Neil Angus of the Liberal Party 17,941, 40.2 per cent; the Nationals did not stand. Steph Partridge of the Greens polled 4,279 votes, 9.6 per cent. Of 46,196 votes cast by 90.9 per cent of the 50,818 electors, 1,529 were informal, 3.3 per cent.

The table gives the 2022 result in Glen Waverley, with the candidates in ballot order and the final count after the distribution of preferences. Source: Victorian Electoral Commission.
CandidatePartyFirst preferencesShareFinal countShare
Scott MarshLabour DLP1,8564.2excluded 4th
Joyce Maree HarrisFreedom Party of Victoria6641.5excluded 1st
Steph PartridgeAustralian Greens4,2799.6excluded 5th
Maddy HanceAnimal Justice Party8021.8excluded 2nd
John MullahyAustralian Labor Party – Victorian Branch18,15340.623,80953.3
Kristeen HuismanFamily First Victoria9722.2excluded 3rd
Neil AngusLiberal17,94140.220,85846.7

The count ran to five exclusions. Family First's 1,452 votes, excluded third, went 532 to Angus, 36.6 per cent, and put him ahead, 18,678 to 18,477. Marsh's 2,476 votes, excluded fourth, went 1,039 to Angus, 42.0 per cent, 836 to Partridge and 601 to Mullahy, widening the lead to 19,717 against 19,078. Partridge was excluded last with 5,872 votes: 4,731, 80.6 per cent, went to Mullahy and 1,141, 19.4 per cent, to Angus. The final count was 23,809 to 20,858, 53.3 to 46.7 per cent, a Labor margin of 3.3 points; a shift of 1,476 votes at that exclusion would have reversed it. Against the Commission's estimate of the 2018 vote on the 2021 boundaries, Labor 49.1 per cent, the result was a swing of 4.2 points to Labor; the district has no 2018 result of its own.

Figure brief · count flow
Angus led after the third and fourth exclusions, and the Greens' 5,872 last-exclusion votes, splitting 80.6 to 19.4 towards Mullahy, turned a Liberal lead of 639 into a Labor margin of 2,951.

The figure shows seven first-preference bars on the left, the two final-count totals on the right, each exclusion's transfers drawn as bands from the excluded candidate to the continuing candidates.

The figure is drawn from the data block when the page is built; the brief above states what it shows.

Data keys: result_2022.first_preferences, result_2022.distribution_of_preferences, result_2022.winner_votes, result_2022.runner_up_votes

IV

How the district voted, booth by booth

Labor led the Commission's two-candidate count by 2,954 votes. Of its 46,172 votes, 16,853, or 36.5 per cent, were cast at the 22 ordinary voting centres, and they split 55.3 to 44.7 for Labor, a lead of 1,712 votes. The 20,013 early votes, 43.3 per cent of the total, split 52.9 to Labor, a lead of 1,133; absent votes, 4.7 per cent, split 58.7 to Labor, a lead of 360; postal votes, 14.9 per cent, split 47.7 to Labor, a Liberal lead of 308.

Labor led at twenty of the 22 voting centres. Its strongest inside the district were Glen Waverley Central at 63.0 per cent of the two-candidate vote, The Glen at 61.1 and Glen Waverley at 61.0, all three around the Glen Waverley commercial centre; Forest Hill at 56.7 and Burwood Heights at 56.8, on the north-western edge, also polled above the district share. The Liberal Party led at Vermont North with 54.0 per cent and Wheelers Hill with 50.2, and its closest result among the Labor-led booths was Weeden Heights at 49.3. Three voting centres, Nunawading South, Mitcham South and Vermont North, are at venues shared with Ringwood District; Nunawading South and Mitcham South went 70.5 and 59.5 per cent to Labor on 44 and 37 votes.

Figure brief · booth strip
Twenty of the 22 booths sit on the Labor side of the line, and the election-day lead of 1,712 votes is larger than the early vote's 1,133 on a smaller block of votes.

The figure shows the 22 ordinary voting centres as a strip sorted by Labor's share of the two-candidate count, each booth's width its two-party formal vote, with the district line drawn at 53.3 and the early, postal and absent totals set beneath as labelled segments.

The figure is drawn from the data block when the page is built; the brief above states what it shows.

Data keys: result_2022.booths (type, formal_two_party, alp_share), result_2022.votes_by_type, result_2022.winner_share

V

How it has voted since 2010

The table shows Glen Waverley at the 2022 state election, with the Victorian Electoral Commission's estimate of the 2018 vote on the boundaries drawn in 2021. Source: Victorian Electoral Commission.
ElectionWinnerPartyFinal countWinner's shareMargin
2018, estimated on the 2022 boundaries—Coalition (notional)two-party, Commission estimate50.90.9
26 November 2022John MullahyLabortwo-party v Neil Angus, Liberal53.33.3

The Electoral Boundaries Commission created Glen Waverley District in its 2021 redivision in place of Forest Hill and Mount Waverley districts, both abolished; an earlier Glen Waverley District was held by the Liberal Party from 1985 to 2002, so the 2022 result is the only one on the present boundaries. The redivision report records Forest Hill and Mount Waverley as 18.39 and 19.58 per cent below quota at 30 November 2020, the lowest elector numbers of all the state districts. The Commission drew the new district from 27,205 electors of Forest Hill, 19,676 of Mount Waverley and 4,522 of Mulgrave, 51,403 in all, 5.71 per cent above the average district enrolment.

Of the former Forest Hill District, 7,371 electors went to Box Hill, 2,742 to Ringwood and 2,363 to the new Ashwood District; Mount Waverley's other 19,429 electors also went to Ashwood. The Victorian Electoral Commission estimated the 2018 vote on the new boundaries at 50.9 per cent to the Coalition and 49.1 to Labor, a notional Liberal margin of 0.9 points, and its methodology document lists Glen Waverley as formerly Forest Hill. There has been no by-election since 2022.

Figure brief · margin line
The district began at a notional Liberal margin of 0.9, and the 2022 result moved it 4.2 points to a Labor margin of 3.3.

The figure shows the margin at each election since the district's creation as a line, Liberal margins above the axis and Labor margins below, with the 2021 redivision marked as a vertical rule at the district's creation and the Commission's notional 2018 figure drawn as a hollow point on the 2022 side of that rule.

The figure is drawn from the data block when the page is built; the brief above states what it shows.

Data keys: history (year, party, margin, notional), redistribution_2021.notional_2018_on_2022_boundaries

VI

What 2026 turns on

Glen Waverley is the fifth rung on the Labor side of the Assembly pendulum, with the fifth smallest margin, 3.3 points, of the 52 seats Labor holds against the Coalition, in the 2 to 6 band. A uniform two-party swing to the Coalition of more than 3.3 points changes the seat. The polls' average stood at 54.0 to 46.0 to the Coalition on 26 October 2026, from ten polls, against a 2022 statewide result of 55.0 to 45.0 to Labor, an implied uniform swing of 9.0 points to the Coalition. At that swing Labor's 2022 share in Glen Waverley falls from 53.3 to 44.3 per cent, and Glen Waverley is one of the 25 Labor-held Labor–Coalition seats the average reaches. Every poll in the average is on the Victorian election polls tracker, and the leaders' ratings are on the pages for Ben Carroll's approval rating and Jess Wilson's approval rating.

In 2022 the count turned on the Greens' 5,872 last-exclusion votes, which went 80.6 per cent to Labor and 19.4 per cent to the Liberal candidate. The district held 50,605 electors in September 2026; the roll closes on 3 November 2026.

Figure brief · pendulum rung
Glen Waverley sits at 3.3 on a scale whose handle stands at 9.0, so it is the fifth of the 25 Labor seats the polls' average reaches.

The figure shows the hub's swing panel reused, the 52 Labor-held Labor–Coalition seats on their margins with the polls' average handle at 9.0, with the Glen Waverley rung marked and labelled.

The figure is drawn from the data block when the page is built; the brief above states what it shows.

Data keys: pendulum.rank, pendulum.of, pendulum.swing_needed, pendulum.polls_average_swing, pendulum.changes_hands_at_average, pendulum.seats_changing_hands_at_average

VII

The Council region

Glen Waverley is one of the eleven districts of North-Eastern Metropolitan Region, which elects five members of the Legislative Council. In 2022 the quota was 80,147 votes, and the members elected, in order, were Shaun Leane (Labor), Matthew Bach (Liberal), Sonja Terpstra (Labor), Nick McGowan (Liberal) and Aiv Puglielli (Greens). Richard Welch (Liberal) filled the casual vacancy left by Bach, and the five sit as at 17 October 2026. The region and its members are set out in the Council section of the hub.

VIII

Questions

Who is the member for Glen Waverley?
John Mullahy has been the member for Glen Waverley since 26 November 2022, sitting for the Australian Labor Party. He has been Government Whip in the Legislative Assembly since 5 May 2026.
Which suburbs are in the Glen Waverley electorate?
Glen Waverley takes in Glen Waverley and Vermont South in whole, most of Forest Hill and Vermont, and parts of Burwood East, Wheelers Hill and Blackburn South. Two are whole localities under the page's rule (95 per cent or more of their area) and five are part.
Is Glen Waverley a marginal seat?
Yes, in the 2 to 6 band: Labor holds Glen Waverley by 3.3 points on the two-party count, the fifth smallest margin of the 52 seats it holds against the Coalition, and a uniform swing of more than 3.3 points changes the seat.
When and how do I vote in Glen Waverley?
Victoria votes on Saturday 28 November 2026, and early voting centres are open from 18 to 27 November. The electoral roll closes at 8 pm on 3 November 2026, and the election date page sets out how to enrol and vote.
IX

Sources and dates

Results, enrolment, boundaries and the timetable are from the Victorian Electoral Commission; the 2022 result is its distribution of preferences and the booth shares its two-candidate-preferred count by voting centre. Members are from the Parliament of Victoria as at 17 October 2026; enrolment is as at September 2026. Boundaries, localities and postcodes are Vicmap Admin, © State of Victoria, CC BY 4.0, matched to the district by area. Population figures are the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2021 Census, area-weighted by locality. The polls' average is the Victorian election 2026 hub's register, updated 26 October 2026.

Results and boundaries from the Victorian Electoral Commission · members from the Parliament of Victoria MEMBERS AS AT 17 OCTOBER 2026 © 2026 Ace Strategies